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The China-Watchers Tested

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 February 2009

Kang Chao
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Extract

After the severe economic setback in 1959–61 the Chinese Government decided to blackout virtually all economic statistics. The policy was so thoroughly executed for 17 years that during this period China-watchers outside the country were forced to engage in a guessing game to estimate how well the Chinese economy had performed. Through a variety of procedures they derived numerous estimates for important products and major economic indicators. Since most of the estimates differed considerably from each other, people who were interested in the economic development of China and hoped to gather information from the studies of China-watchers often found themselves in a state of deep confusion. They did not know which set of estimates they should accept as representing, or nearly so, the true situation in the country. It is only in recent months that the Chinese authorities haverelaxed their information control, with scattered economic statistics gradually appearing in Chinese newspapers and other publications. Some of these statistics concern current production while others refer to previous economic performance. It is possible now to compare the official figures for early years with the western estimates to see how close they are. In other words, assuming that these official figures are the nearest we shall get to the truth for some time, they give us an opportunity for the first time to rate the performance of the China-watchers.

Type
Research Notes
Information
The China Quarterly , Volume 81 , March 1980 , pp. 97 - 104
Copyright
Copyright © The China Quarterly 1980

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References

1 For official statistics of basic construction in 1957 see Chen, Nai-Ruenn, Chinese Economic Statistics: A Handbook for Mainland China (Chicagoand London: University of Chicago Press, 1967), p. 158Google Scholar.

2 Chao, Kang, Capital Formation in Mainland China, 1952–1965 (Berkeley, California and London: University of California Press, 1974), p. 50Google Scholar.

3 National Foreign Assessment Center, People's Republic of China: Handbook of Economic Indicators, 08 1976, p. 5Google Scholar.

4 National Foreign Assessment Center, China: Economic Indicators (12 1978), p. 5Google Scholar. The figure is identical with R. M. Field's index of gross domestic fixed capital formation for 1965.