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Modelling seasonality of gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae), to evaluate probability of its persistence in novel environments

  • J. Régnière (a1) and V. Nealis (a1)

Abstract

The predictions of three published models of temperature-dependent egg hatch of the European strain of the gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar L., were compared with observed hatch rates of caged egg masses in Victoria, British Columbia, Canada. Two of the three models gave a good fit to observations. Both of these models considered explicitly the period between oviposition in the summer of one year and hatch of neonates the following spring. When combined with models for temperature-dependent development of larvae and pupae, and adult longevity, the seasonal life history of an entire generation of gypsy moth could be simulated. These composite models predict the seasonal occurrence of all life stages of the insect. The simulated flight period of adult male gypsy moth on Vancouver Island in 1998 compared favourably with observed captures in pheromone traps. A series of gypsy moth generations was simulated using daily temperature inputs reconstructed from climatic normals (period 1961–1990) at various locations on the south coast and southern interior of British Columbia where gypsy moth has been frequently introduced but is not established. These simulations provided estimates of the probability of a persistent population resulting from a predicted stable seasonality of the gypsy moth. The highest probabilities of persistence were in coastal areas along the Strait of Georgia between Vancouver Island and the continental mainland and in southern interior valleys below approximately 500-m elevation (above sea level). Outside these regions, normal climatic profiles resulted in an unstable seasonality for gypsy moth with increasingly late oviposition dates, and subsequent problems in synchronizing initiation and completion of winter diapause with appropriate ambient conditions. The phenology models discussed here can be and were used as decision-support tools either to improve the efficiency of pest management operations (sampling, pesticide applications) or to make better decisions concerning the need for eradication of the gypsy moth in novel environments.

Les prédictions de trois modèles publiés de développement des oeufs de la race européenne de la spongieuse, Lymantria dispar L., ont été comparées à des observations du taux d'éclosion de masses d'oeufs en cage à Victoria, Colombie-Britannique, Canada. Deux des trois modèles avaient un bon ajustement aux données. Ces deux modèles prennent explicitement en considération la période entre l'oviposition en été et l'éclosion au printemps suivant. Lorsque ces modèles d'éclosion ont été combinés avec des modèles de développement des larves, des chrysalides et des adultes, la saisonnalité d'une génération entière de la spongieuse a pu être simulée. Ces modèles composés prédisent l'apparition saisonnière de tous les stades de l'insecte. La période de vol simulée pour l'île de Vancouver en 1998 se compare favorablement avec les captures enregistrées dans des pièges à phéromones. Des suites de générations de la spongieuse ont été simulées avec comme intrants des températures quotidiennes reconstituées à partir de normales climatiques (période 1960–1991) provenant de diverses localités de la côte sud et de l'intérieur sud de la Colombie-Britannique où la spongieuse a été fréquemment introduite, mais où elle n'est pas encore établie. Ces simulations ont fourni des estimés de la probabilité qu'une population puisse y persister dû à une saisonnalité stable de l'insecte. Les plus fortes probabilités de persistance ont été trouvées dans les régions côtières le long du détroit de Georgie entre l'île de Vancouver et le continent, ainsi que dans les vallées du sud de l'intérieur en dessous de 500 m d'altitude (au-dessus du niveau de la mer). En dehors de ces régions, les profils climatiques normaux ont résulté en une saisonnalité instable chez la spongieuse, avec des dates d'oviposition de plus en plus tardives et des problèmes subséquents à synchroniser l'initiation et la terminaison de la diapause hivernale avec les conditions environnementales appropriées. Les modèles de phénologie discutés ici peuvent être et ont été utilisés comme outils d'aide à la prise de décisions soit pour améliorer l'efficacité des programmes de lutte (échantillonnage, application d'insecticides), soit pour la prise de décisions concernant le besoin d'éradication de la spongieuse dans de nouveaux environnements.

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Corresponding author

1Corresponding author (e-mail: jregnier@nrcan.gc.ca).

References

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Modelling seasonality of gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae), to evaluate probability of its persistence in novel environments

  • J. Régnière (a1) and V. Nealis (a1)

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