Forecasting the future is fun but futile since most forecasts are wrong. The only constructive strategy is to plan for the unknown. Therefore this talk will contain (almost) no predictions. It will simply consider how we may best cope with the shock of the new; the information explosion, the accelerating pace of change and its bewildering changes of direction. To do this we need to hold fast to a small number of big, lasting truths. I can survive on four, two of which are humanistic, two simply biological. These are:
Biological systems evolve through modification by natural selection. The word ‘modification’ does not imply new creation but redesign from a relatively small range of standard parts and processes to meet changing needs.
The application of reason is an effective and honest approach to the process of discovery and understanding. Almost all issues can benefit from application of the scientific method (reason challenged by experiment). However, almost all issues also contain elements that transcend science but these too are amenable to reason.
Humans are sentient animals. In common with other sentient animals, we are powerfully motivated by how we feel (as distinct from what we think) and most powerfully motivated by the need to feel good. This need may be physical or spiritual. The physical need to enjoy comfort, the satisfaction of a good meal, or sex, ensures our genetic survival. The emotional need for security, or spiritual satisfaction ensures the stability of our communities, since in a stable community, discretion and goodness have survival value.
All life forms have value. Moral philosophy argues that a life form such as a tree has an intrinsic value independent of its extrinsic value to us (e.g. for its beauty, utility or as a carbon sink). While I accept the concept of intrinsic value, I suggest that it is more useful to redefine the concept of extrinsic value in a less anthropocentric way (e.g. a tree has extrinsic value to a squirrel).
