Health expectancy (HE) was only recently estimated for the Scottish population (Clark et al., 2004). The estimates were based on Sullivan's method, applying the morbidity prevalence in each age group to the expected number of years lived, to obtain the expected number of years lived in good health. First, we compare these estimates with a wide range of estimates in respect of the rest of the United Kingdom and the (pre-accession) countries of the European Union. We find that Scotland's HE is relatively low, especially for men. Second, we examine data comprising the responses to the 1998 Scottish Health Survey, linked to the hospital records of the respondents from 1981 to 2004, and death records from 1998 to 2004, with HE measurement in mind. Although time spent in hospital does not give a satisfactory measure of HE, the linkage presents a rare opportunity for statistical analysis of survey respondents' mortality and morbidity. We show the results of survival analyses, quantifying the effectiveness of various definitions of ‘unhealthy’ as predictors of future mortality and morbidity. The results suggest that enumerating recent serious hospital episodes might help to predict future patterns of demand for acute services.

The paper identifies two major trends in the economic and social history of the last 150 years, and discusses their effect on the actuarial profession. The major economic trend is globalisation, with which is associated specialisation of function. The major social trend is the gradual collectivisation of society. Neither of these trends has developed monotonically. Both have developed in a ratchet-like movement over time. Globalisation is reflected in the overseas expansion of British life assurance companies up to 1914, followed by an extended period of retrenchment before expansion was resumed in the last quarter of the 20th century. The effect of the collectivisation of society on the actuarial profession has been felt most acutely in an intensification of the regulation of financial services.