Hostname: page-component-84b7d79bbc-5lx2p Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-07-25T17:06:35.945Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Introduction to Dynamic Financial Analysis

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  29 August 2014

Roger Kaufmann
Affiliation:
RiskLab, Department of Mathematics, ETH Zentrum, CH-8092 Zürich, Switzerland, kaufmann@math.ethz.ch
Andreas Gadmer
Affiliation:
Zürich Kosmos Versicherungen, Schwarzenbergplatz 15, A-1015 Wien, Austria, andreas.gadmer@zurich.com
Ralf Klett
Affiliation:
Zurich Financial Services, Mythenquai 2, CH-8022 Zürich, Switzerland, ralf.klett@zurich.com
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

In the last few years we have witnessed growing interest in Dynamic Financial Analysis (DFA) in the nonlife insurance industry. DFA combines many economic and mathematical concepts and methods. It is almost impossible to identify and describe a unique DFA methodology. There are some DFA software products for nonlife companies available in the market, each of them relying on its own approach to DFA. Our goal is to give an introduction into this field by presenting a model framework comprising those components many DFA models have in common. By explicit reference to mathematical language we introduce an up-and-running model that can easily be implemented and adjusted to individual needs. An application of this model is presented as well.

Type
Workshop
Copyright
Copyright © International Actuarial Association 2001

References

REFERENCES

1.Ahlgrim, K.C., D'Arcy, S.P. and Gorvett, R.W. (1999) Parametrizing Interest Rate Models, Casualty Actuarial Society Forum, 150Google Scholar
2.Artzner, P., Delbaen, F., Eber, J. and Heath, D. (1997) Thinking Coherently, RISK 10, 6871.Google Scholar
3.Artzner, P., Delbaen, F., Eber, J. and Heath, D. (1999) Coherent Measures of Risk, Mathematical Finance 9(3), 203228.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
4.Björk, T. (1996) Interest Rate Theory. In Financial Mathematics (ed. Runggaldier, W.), Lecture Notes in Mathematics 1656, 53122, Springer, Berlin.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
5.Blum, P., Dacorogna, M., Embrechts, P., Neghaiwi, T. and Niggli, H. (2001) Using DFA for Modelling the Impact of Foreign Exchange Risks on Reinsurance Decisions, Paper presented at the Casualty Actuarial Society 2001 Reinsurance Meeting on Using Dynamic Financial Analysis to Optimize Ceded Reinsurance Programs and Retained Portfolios, Washington D.C., 07 2001. Available as ETH Zürich Preprint.Google Scholar
6.Brennan, M.J. and Schwartz, E.S. (1982) An Equilibrium Model of Bond Pricing and a Test of Market Efficiency, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 17, 301329.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
7.Bühlmann, H., Delbaen, F., Embrechts, P. and Shiryaev, A.N. (1998) On Esscher Transforms in Discrete Finance Models, ASTIN Bulletin 28(2), 171186.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
8.Christofides, S. (1990) Regression Models Based on Log-Incremental Payments, Claims Reserving Manual 2, Institute of Actuaries, London.Google Scholar
9.Cox, J.C., Ingersoll, J.E. and Ross, S.A. (1985) A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates, Econometrica 53, 385407.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
10.Cumberworth, M.P., Hitchcox, A.M., McConnell, W.M. and Smith, A.D. (1999) Corporate Decisions in General Insurance: Beyond the Frontier, available from http://www.actuaries.org.uk/library/sessional_meeting_papers.html.Google Scholar
11.D'Arcy, S.P. and Doherty, N. (1989) The Aging Phenomenon and Insurance Prices, Proceedings of the Casualty Actuarial Society 76, 2444.Google Scholar
12.D'Arcy, S.P. and Doherty, N. (1990) Adverse Selection, Private Information and Low-balling in Insurance Markets, Journal of Business 63, 145164.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
13.D'Arcy, S.P., Gorvett, R.W., Herbers, J.A., Hettinger, T.E., Lehmann, S.G. and Miller, M.J. (1997) Building a Public Access PC-Based DFA Model, Casualty Actuarial Society Forum, 140.Google Scholar
14.D'Arcy, S.P., Gorvett, R.W., Hettinger, T.E. and Walling, R.J. (1998) Using the Public Access DFA Model: A Case Study, Casualty Actuarial Society Forum, 55118.Google Scholar
15.Daykin, C.D., Pentikäinen, T. and Pesonen, M. (1994) Practical Risk Theory for Actuaries, Chapman & Hall, London.Google Scholar
16.Embrechts, P., Klüppelberg, C. and Mikosch, T. (1997) Modelling Extremal Events for Insurance and Finance, Springer, Berlin.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
17.Embrechts, P., McNeil, A.J. and Straumann, D. (1999) Correlation: Pitfalls and Alternatives, RISK 12(5), 6971.Google Scholar
18.Embrechts, P., McNeil, A.J. and Straumann, D. (1999) Correlation and Dependence in Risk Management: Properties and Pitfalls, Preprint ETH Zürich, available from http://www.math.ethz.ch/~embrechts.Google Scholar
19.Feldblum, S. (1996) Personal Automobile Premiums: An Asset Share Pricing Approach for Property/Casualty Insurance, Proceedings of the Casualty Actuarial Society 83, 190296.Google Scholar
20.Heath, D., Jarrow, R. and Morton, A. (1992) Bond Pricing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A New Methodology for Contingent Claim Valuation, Econometrica 60, 77105.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
21.Hodes, D.M., Feldblum, S. and Neghaiwi, A.A. (1999) The Financial Modeling of Property-Casualty Insurance Companies, North American Actuarial Journal 3(3), 4169.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
22.Ingersoll, J.E. (1987) Theory of Financial Decision Making, Rowman & Littlefield Studies in Financial Economics, New Jersey.Google Scholar
23.Jarvis, S., Southall, F.E. and Varnell, E. (2001) Modern Valuation Techniques, Staple Inn Actuarial Society, available from http://www.sias.org.uk/progold.htm.Google Scholar
24.Kaufmann, R. (1999) DFA: Stochastische Simulation zur Beurteilung von Unternehmensstrategien bei Nichtleben-Versicherungen, Master Thesis, ETH Zürich.Google Scholar
25.Klett, R. (1994) Asset-Liability-Management im Lebensversicherungsbereich, Master Thesis, University of Freiburg.Google Scholar
26.Kreps, R.E. (2000) A Partially Comonotonic Algorithm for Loss Generation, Proceedings of XXXIst International ASTIN Colloquium, 165176, Porto Cervo, Italy.Google Scholar
27.Lamberton, D. and Lapeyre, B. (1996) Introduction to Stochastic Calculus Applied to Finance, Chapman & Hall, London.Google Scholar
28.Lindskog, F. (2000) Modelling Dependence with Copulas and Applications to Risk Management, Master Thesis, ETH Zürich.Google Scholar
29.Longstaff, F.A. and Schwartz, E.S. (1992) Interest Rate Volatility and the Term Structure: A Two-Factor General Equilibrium Model, Journal of Finance 47, 12591282.Google Scholar
30.Lowe, S.P. and Stanard, J.N. (1997) An Integrated Dynamic Financial Analysis and Decision Support System for a Property Catastrophe Reinsurer, ASTIN Bulletin 27(2), 339371.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
31.Mack, T. (1997) Schadenversicherungsmathematik, Verlag Versicherungswirtschaft E.V., Karlsruhe.Google Scholar
32.Markowitz, H.M. (1959) Portfolio Selection: Efficient Diversification of Investments, John Wiley, New York.Google Scholar
33.McNeil, A.J. (1997) Estimating the Tails of Loss Severity Distributions using Extreme Value Theory, ASTIN Bulletin 27(1), 117137.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
34.Modigliani, M. and Miller, M. (1958) The Cost of Capital, Corporation Finance, and the Theory of Investment, American Economic Review 48, 261297.Google Scholar
35.Musiela, M. and Rutkowski, M. (1998) Martingale Methods in Financial Modelling, 2nd edition, Springer, Berlin.Google Scholar
36.Rogers, L.C.G. (1995) Which Model for Term-Structure of Interest Rates Should One Use? In Mathematical Finance, IMA Volume 65, 93116, Springer, New York.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
37.Schnieper, R. (1997) Capital Allocation and Solvency Testing, SCOR Notes, 55104.Google Scholar
38.Schnieper, R. (1999) Solvency Testing, Mitteilungen der Schweizerischen Aktuarvereinigung, 1145.Google Scholar
39.Smith, A.D. (1996) How Actuaries Can Use Financial Economics, British Actuarial Journal 2(V), 10571193.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
40.Taylor, G.C. (2000) Loss Reserving: An Actuarial Perspective, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
41.Walling, R.J., Hettinger, T.E., Emma, C.C. and Ackerman, S. (1999) Customizing the Public Access Model Using Publicly Available Data, Casualty Actuarial Society Forum, 239266.Google Scholar
42.Wilkie, A.D. (1995) More on a Stochastic Asset Model for Actuarial Use, British Actuarial Journal 1(V), 777964.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
43.Wise, A.J. (1984) The Matching of Assets to Liabilities, Journal of the Institute of Actuaries 111, 445485.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
44.Woll, R.G. (1987) Insurance Profits: Keeping Score, Financial Analysis of Insurance Companies, Casualty Actuarial Society Discussion Paper Program, 446533.Google Scholar