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Back to the future. How scenarios of future globalisation, biotechnology, disease and climate change can inform present animal genetic resources policy development

  • A.G. Drucker (a1), S.J. Hiemstra (a2), N. Louwaars (a2), J.K. Oldenbroek (a2), M.W. Tvedt (a3), I. Hoffmann (a4), K. Awgichew (a5), S. Abegaz Kehedé (a6), P.N. Bhat (a7) and A. da Silva Manante (a8)...

Summary

With the aim of assessing how exchange practices regarding Animal Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture (AnGR) affect the various stakeholders in the livestock sector and to identify policies and regulatory options that could guide the global exchange, use and conservation of AnGR, an exploration of future scenarios was used as a complementary approach to reviewing the current situation, as well as to identify stakeholders’ views on AnGR policy development.

Four 2050 future scenarios were developed and included:

1. Globalization and regionalization.

2. Biotechnology development.

3. Climate change and environmental degradation.

4. Diseases and disasters.

Having developed the scenarios, these were then used as an input point for a wide range of stakeholder consultations.

The findings show that such an approach has been a useful analytical tool. The ‘far’ future perspective appeared to make people less defensive, especially in a situation where current exchange problems were not yet particularly visible or well documented. Many interviewees broadly considered that it was not a question of ‘if’ the scenarios would happen, but rather a question of ‘when’. This implies that we might do well to consider the need to respond to future challenges through the proactive development of new policies or regulations. Such a finding is partly in contrast with the general perception of the current regulatory situation being broadly acceptable.

On a réalisé une enquête sur les possibles futur scénarios comme approche complémentaire pour revoir la situation actuelle et identifier l'avis des intéressés au secteur de l'élevage sur le développement politique des Ressources Génétiques Animales (AnGR) afin d'évaluer comment les modalités d'échange de AnGR dans le domaine de l'alimentation et de l'agriculture ont un effet sur les éleveurs et pouvoir ainsi identifier les politiques et réglements qui peuvent servir de guide dans ces échanges, l'utilisation et la conservation de AnGR au niveau mondial.

On a identifier quatre possibles scénarios futurs qui comprennent:

1. La globalisation et régionalisation.

2. Le développement biotechnologique.

3. Les changements climatiques et dégradation de l'environnement.

4. Les maladies et calamités.

Une fois établis ces scénarios, ils ont été utilisés comme point de départ pour la consultations auprès des éleveurs. Les résultats montrent que cette approche a été un outil utile.

Les perspectives de futur “lointain” montrent la population avec moins de protection, spécialement dans les situations où les problèmes dus aux échanges n'étaient pas visibles ou connus. La How future scenarios inform AnGR policy development plupart des consultés ont considéré que le problème n'était pas tellement “si” mais plutôt “quand” ces scénarios pourraient se présenter. Ceci implique qu'il faudra très bien considérer la capacité de réaction aux défis dans le futur à travers des initiatives de développement de nouvelles politiques ou règlements. Ce résultat contraste en partie avec la perception générale sur la grande acceptation de la situation réglementaire actuelle.

Se ha realizado una exploración de futuros escenarios como enfoque complementario para revisar la situación actual, así como identificar la visión de las partes interesadas del sector ganadero, sobre el desarrollo político de los Recursos Zoogenéticos (AnGR) con el fin de evaluar cómo las modalidades de intercambio de AnGR en la alimentación y agricultura afectan a los propietarios del sector ganadero e identificar políticas y reglamentos que puedan servir de guía en los intercambios, utilización y conservación de AnGR a nivel mundial.

Se establecieron cuatro escenarios futuros que incluyen:

1. Globalización y regionalización.

2. Desarrollo biotecnológico.

3. Cambios climáticos y degrado ambiental.

4. Enfermedades y calamidades.

Una vez establecidos estos escenarios, se utilizaron como punto de partida para una mayor consulta con los propietarios. Los resultados muestran que este enfoque ha sido una herramienta útil.

Las perspectivas del futuro “lejano” hicieron la gente menos protegidas, especialmente en situaciones en que los problemas debido a los intercambios no eran particularmente visibles o bien documentados. Muchos de los entrevistados consideraron que el problema no era tanto “si” sino “cuando” estos escenarios podían darse. Esto implica que tendremos que considerar muy bien la capacidad de respuesta a los futuros desafíos a través iniciativas de desarrollo de nuevas políticas o reglamentos. Este resultado se contrapone en parte a la percepción general de la situación reglamentaria actual ampliamente aceptada.

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Back to the future. How scenarios of future globalisation, biotechnology, disease and climate change can inform present animal genetic resources policy development

  • A.G. Drucker (a1), S.J. Hiemstra (a2), N. Louwaars (a2), J.K. Oldenbroek (a2), M.W. Tvedt (a3), I. Hoffmann (a4), K. Awgichew (a5), S. Abegaz Kehedé (a6), P.N. Bhat (a7) and A. da Silva Manante (a8)...

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