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Improving the Relevance of Research on Price Forecasting and Marketing Strategies

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 September 2016

B. Wade Brorsen  and
Scott H. Irwin
B. Wade Brorsen
Affiliation:
Department of Agricultural Economics at Oklahoma State University
Scott H. Irwin
Affiliation:
Department of Agricultural Economics at the Ohio State University
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Abstract

Agricultural economists' research on price forecasting and marketing strategies has been used little by those in the real world. We argue that fresh approaches to research are needed. First, we argue that we need to adopt a new theoretical paradigm, noisy rational expectations. This paradigm suggests that gains from using price forecasting models with public data or from using a marketing strategy are not impossible, but any gains are likely to be small. We need to conduct falsification tests; to perform confirmation and replication; to adjust research to reflect structural changes, such as increased contracting; and always to conduct statistical tests. We also provide a modest agenda for changing our research and extension programs.

Type
New Issues and Fresh Approaches for Agricultural and Resource Economics
Information
Agricultural and Resource Economics Review , Volume 25 , Issue 1 , April 1996 , pp. 68 - 75
Copyright
Copyright © 1996 Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association 

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