Hostname: page-component-77c89778f8-sh8wx Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-07-20T03:00:42.578Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Work at age 62: expectations and realisations among recent cohorts of Americans

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  06 November 2020

Leah R. Abrams Open the ORCID record for Leah R. Abrams [Opens in a new window] ,
Philippa J. Clarke  and
Neil K. Mehta
Leah R. Abrams*
Affiliation:
Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
Philippa J. Clarke
Affiliation:
Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
Neil K. Mehta
Affiliation:
Department of Preventive Medicine and Population Health, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas, USA
*
*Corresponding author. Email: LRAbrams@HSPH.Harvard.edu
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Much remains unknown about how the 2008 Great Recession, coupled with the ageing baby-boomer cohort, have shaped retirement expectations and realised retirement timing across diverse groups of older Americans. Using the Health and Retirement Study (1992–2016), we compared expectations about full-time work at age 62 (reported at ages 51–61) with realised labour force status at age 62. Of the 12,049 respondents, 34 per cent reported no chance of working full time at 62 (zero probability) and 21 per cent reported it was very likely (90–100 probability). Among those reporting no chance of working, there was a 0.111 probability of unmet expectations; among those with high expectations of working, there was a 0.430 probability of unmet expectations. Black and Hispanic Americans were more likely than white Americans to have unmet expectations of both types. Educational attainment was associated with higher probability of unexpectedly working and lower probability of unexpectedly not working. Baby-boomers experienced fewer unmet expectations than prior cohorts but more uncertainty about work status at 62. Our findings highlight the unpredictability of retirement timing for significant segments of the US population and the role of the Great Recession in contributing to uncertainty. Given the individual and societal benefits of long work lives, special attention should be paid to the high rates of unexpectedly not working at age 62.

Keywords

retirement timingunmet expectationsworkraceeducationbirth cohorts
Type
Article
Information
Ageing & Society , Volume 42 , Issue 5 , May 2022 , pp. 1213 - 1233
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Aaron, HJ and Callan, JM (2011) Who retires early? Available at https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1857145.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Aneshensel, CS (2013) Theory-based Data Analysis for the Social Sciences. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bailey, ZD, Krieger, N, Agénor, M, Graves, J, Linos, N and Bassett, MT (2017) Structural racism and health inequities in the USA: evidence and interventions. The Lancet 389, 1453–1463.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Boer JCL, Den, Zijderveld, SA and Bruers, JJM (2018) Preferred and actual retirement age of oral and maxillofacial surgeons aged 55 and older in the Netherlands: a longitudinal study from 2003 to 2016. Human Resources for Health 16. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12960-018-0288-6.Google Scholar
Bugliari, D, Campbell, N, Chan, C, Hayden, O, Hayes, J, Hurd, M, Karabatakis, A, Main, R, Mallett, J, McCullough, C, Meijer, E, Moldoff, M, Pantoja, P, Rohwedder, S and St.Clair, P (2019) RAND HRS Detailed Imputations File 2016 (V1) Documentation. Available at www.rand.org/well-being/social-and-behavioral-policy/centers/aging.html.Google Scholar
Burr, JA, Massagli, MP, Mutchler, JE and Pienta, AM (1996) Labor force transitions among older African American and White men. Social Forces 74, 963–982.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cahill, KE, Giandrea, MD and Quinn, JF (2013) Are gender differences emerging in the retirement patterns of the early boomers? Available at http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2645853.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cahill, KE, Giandrea, MD and Quinn, JF (2015) Evolving patterns of work and retirement. In Ferraro, K and George, L (eds). Handbook of Aging and the Social Sciences. San Diego, CA: Academic Press, chap, pp. 271–291.Google Scholar
Clarke, P, Marshall, VW and Weir, D (2012) Unexpected retirement from full time work after age 62: consequences for life satisfaction in older Americans. European Journal of Ageing 9, 207–219.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Coe, NB, Khan, MR and Rutledge, MS (2013) How Important is Medicare Eligibility in the Timing of Retirement? Available at http://crr.bc.edu/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/IB_13-7.pdf.Google Scholar
Coile, C and Gruber, J (2002) An Evaluation of the Retirement Questions in the Health and Retirement Study Prepared for the HRS Data Monitoring Committee and the National Institute on Aging. Available at http://hrsonline.isr.umich.edu/sitedocs/dmc/Coile-Gruber.pdf.Google Scholar
Dentinger, E and Clarkberg, M (2002) Informal caregiving and retirement timing among men and women. Journal of Family Issues 23, 857–879.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
De Preter, H, Van Looy, D and Mortelmans, D (2013) Individual and institutional push and pull factors as predictors of retirement timing in Europe: a multilevel analysis. Journal of Aging Studies 27, 299–307.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Dwyer, DS and Hu, J (1998) Retirement expectations and realizations: the role of health shocks and economic factors. In Mitchell, OS, Hammond, PB and Rappaport, AM (eds), Forecasting Retirement Needs and Retirement Wealth. Philadelphia, PA: University of Pennsylvania Press, pp. 274–287.Google Scholar
Falba, TA, Gallo, WT and Sindelar, JL (2009) Work expectations, realizations, and depression in older workers. Journal of Mental Health Policy and Economics 12, 175–186.Google ScholarPubMed
Fisher, GG, Chaffee, DS and Sonnega, A (2016) Retirement timing: a review and recommendations for future research. Work, Aging and Retirement 2, 230–261.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Flippen, C and Tienda, M (2000) Pathways to retirement: patterns of labor force participation and labor market exit among the pre-retirement population by race, Hispanic origin, and sex. Journals of Gerontology: Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences 55B, S14–S27.Google Scholar
Fronstin, P and Adams, N (2012) Employment-based retiree health benefits: trends in access and coverage, 1997–2010. Employee Benefit Research Institute, Issue Brief 377. Available at https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id = 2166507.Google Scholar
George, LK (1993) Sociological perspectives on life transitions. Annual Review of Sociology 19, 353–373.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goda, GS, Shoven, JB and Slavov, SN (2011) What explains changes in retirement plans during the Great Recession? American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 101, 29–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gorodnichenko, Y, Song, J and Stolyarov, D (2013) Macroeconomic determinants of retirement timing. University of Michigan Retirement Research Center, Research Paper 2013–281. Available at http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2376447.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hudomiet, P, Hurd, MD and Rohwedder, S (2018) The causal effects of economic incentives, health and job characteristics on retirement: estimates based on subjective conditional probabilities. Paper presented at the 2018 Working Longer and Retirement Conference. Available at https://siepr.stanford.edu/system/files/The Causal Effects of Economic Incentives%2C Health and Job Characteristics on Retirement.pdf.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hurd, MD and Rohwedder, S (2010) The effects of the economic crisis on the older population. University of Michigan Retirement Research Center, Research Paper 2010–231. Available at https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1710142.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ilmakunnas, P and Ilmakunnas, S (2018) Health and retirement age: comparison of expectations and actual retirement. Scandinavian Journal of Public Health 46, 18–31.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Johnson, RW (2012) Older Workers, Retirement, and the Great Recession. Stanford, CA: Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality. Available at https://web.stanford.edu/group/recessiontrends-dev/cgi-bin/web/sites/all/themes/barron/pdf/Retirement_fact_sheet.pdf.Google Scholar
Lusardi, A and Mitchell, OS (2007) Baby Boomer retirement security: the roles of planning, financial literacy, and housing wealth. Journal of Monetary Economics 54, 205–224.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McFall, BH (2011) Crash and wait? The impact of the Great Recession on the retirement plans of older Americans. American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 101, 40–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McGarry, K (2004) Health and retirement: do changes in health affect retirement expectations? Journal of Human Resources 39, 624–648.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McNamara, TK and Williamson, JB (2004) Race, gender, and the retirement decisions of people ages 60 to 80: prospects for age integration in employment. International Journal of Aging and Human Development 59, 255–286.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Mermin, GBT, Johnson, RW and Murphy, DP (2007) Why do boomers plan to work longer? Journals of Gerontology: Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences 62B, S286–S294.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Munnell, AH (2006) Employer-sponsored plans: the shift from defined benefit to defined contribution. In Clark, GL, Munnell, AH, Williams, K and Orszag, JM (eds), The Oxford Handbook of Pensions and Retirement Income. Notre Dame, IN: University of Notre Dame Press, pp. 359–380.Google Scholar
Munnell, AH, Sanzenbacher, GT and Rutledge, MS (2018) What causes workers to retire before they plan? Journal of Retirement 6, 35–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ondrich, J and Falevich, A (2016) The Great Recession, housing wealth, and the retirement decisions of older workers. Public Finance Review 44, 109–131.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Panis, C, Hurd, M, Loughran, D, Zissimopoulos, J, Haider, S, StClair, P, Bugliari, D, Ilchuk, S, Lopez, G, Pantoja, P and Ret, M (2002) The Effects of Changing Social Security Administration's Early Entitlement Age and the Normal Retirement Age. Available at https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/contractreports/agereport.pdf.Google Scholar
Potočnik, K, Tordera, N and Peiró, JM (2010) The influence of the early retirement process on satisfaction with early retirement and psychological well-being. International Journal of Aging and Human Development 70, 251–273.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Quick, HE and Moen, P (1998) Gender, employment, and retirement quality: a life course approach to the differential experiences of men and women. Journal of Occupational Health Psychology 3, 44–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Quinn, J, Cahill, K and Giandrea, M (2011) Early retirement: the dawn of a new era? TIAA-CREF Institute Policy Brief. Available at https://www.tiaainstitute.org/sites/default/files/presentations/2017-02/pb_earlyretirement0711.pdf.Google Scholar
Skarupski, KA, Fitchett, G, Evans, DA and Mendes de Leon, CF (2013) Race differences in the association of spiritual experiences and life satisfaction in older age. Aging and Mental Health 17, 888–895.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Solem, PE, Syse, A, Furunes, T, Mykletun, RJ, De Lange, A, Schaufeli, W and Ilmarinen, J (2016) To leave or not to leave: retirement intentions and retirement behaviour. Ageing & Society 36, 259–281.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sonnega, A, Faul, JD, Ofstedal, MB, Langa, KM, Phillips, JWR and Weir, DR (2014) Cohort profile: the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). International Journal of Epidemiology 43, 576–585.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
StataCorp (2017) Stata Statistical Software: Release 15. College Station, TX: StataCorp.Google Scholar
Szinovacz, ME, Martin, L and Davey, A (2014) Recession and expected retirement age: another look at the evidence. The Gerontologist 54, 245–257.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Szinovacz, ME, Davey, A and Martin, L (2015) Did the Great Recession influence retirement plans? Research on Aging 37, 275–305.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Wallace, RB, Regula, A, Mary, H, Ofstedal, B, Steffick, D, Fonda, S and Langa, K (2000) HRS/AHEAD Documentation Report Documentation of Affective Functioning Measures in the Health and Retirement Study. Available at http://hrsonline.isr.umich.edu/sitedocs/userg/dr-005.pdf.Google Scholar
Yang, Y (2008) Social inequalities in happiness in the United States, 1972 to 2004: an age–period–cohort analysis. American Sociological Review 73, 204–226.CrossRefGoogle Scholar