Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-tj2md Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-25T01:17:15.826Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Strategic forecasting in uncertain environments: hypersonic cruise vehicle research and development case study

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 January 2016

B. Chudoba ,
E. Haney ,
L. Gonzalez ,
A. Omoragbon  and
A. Oza
B. Chudoba*
Affiliation:
Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University of Texas at Arlington, Texas, USA
E. Haney
Affiliation:
Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University of Texas at Arlington, Texas, USA
L. Gonzalez
Affiliation:
Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University of Texas at Arlington, Texas, USA
A. Omoragbon
Affiliation:
Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University of Texas at Arlington, Texas, USA
A. Oza
Affiliation:
Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University of Texas at Arlington, Texas, USA
*
chudoba@uta.edu
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

The exponentially increasing amount of information accumulated from past to current engineering projects has created an environment where repurposing existing data to support new projects is paramount to sustainable success. Strategic planning and early design decisions, specifically, occur in decision-making environments that require information support capabilities that lie outside of traditional engineering analyses. In order to advance towards a more complete planning environment, a pragmatic methodology has been developed for modern aerospace data and information collection, categorisation, and utilisation with a focus on current efforts in hypersonic vehicle research and development. The main thrust has been to provide insights into financial and technical trends that support objective programmatic and planning decision-making. The end-product is a suite of graphical decision-making interfaces, linked through a unified hypersonic database. The graphical interfaces are capable of highlighting the key project drivers along varying levels of categorisation and refinement. Aided by these newly developed data and information support interfaces covering past and present hypersonic efforts, the planner’s forecasting assessment of present and future hypersonic research and development efforts is pragmatically enriched towards a more complete managerial program-planning framework.

Type
Research Article
Information
The Aeronautical Journal , Volume 119 , Issue 1211 , January 2015 , pp. 45 - 65
Copyright
Copyright © Royal Aeronautical Society 2015

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

1.Manyika, J.et al, Big Data: The Next Frontier for Innovation, Competition, and Productivity, McKinsey & Company, 2011.Google Scholar
2.Shalal-Esa, A.Insight: Expensive F-35 Flight at Risk of Budget ‘Death Spiral’, Reuters, 2013.Google Scholar
3.Hathaway, B. NATIONAL AERO-SPACE PLANE: Restructuring Future Research and Development Efforts, GAO/NSIAD-93-71, U.S. Government Accountability Offce, National Security and International Affairs Division, December 1992.Google Scholar
4.Morris, K.C., Mitchell, M., Dabrowski, C. and Fong, E. Database Management Systems in Engineering, NISTIR 4987, National Institute of Standards and Technology, U.S. Department of Commerce, December 1992.Google Scholar
5.Chudoba, B. and Heinze, W.Evolution of generic fight vehicle design synthesis, (1159), 114, Aeronaut J, September 2010.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
6. Anon., 2008 Aerospace Source Book, Aviation Week & Space Technology, 2008.Google Scholar
7. Anon., Jane’s Defense: Air & Space, Information Handling Services, Inc URL: http://www.janes.com/products/janes/defence/det-modules/air-space.aspxGoogle Scholar
8.Isakowitz, S., Hopkins, J. and Hopkina, J. Jr, International Reference Guide to Space Launch Systems, 4th Edition, Library of Flight Series, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, September 2004.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
9.Bernstein, J., Design Methods in the Aerospace Industry: Looking for Evidence of Set-Based Practices, Master of Science Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, May 1998.Google Scholar
10.Coleman, G., Aircraft Conceptual Design – An Adaptable Parametric Sizing Methodology, PhD Thesis, Aerospace Vehicle design Laboratory, Mechanical & Aerospace Engineering, University of Texas at Arlington, May 2010.Google Scholar
11.Czysz, P.HYPERSONIC CONVERGENCE, Volumes 1 through 10, AE-P493-50 1992-93, Parks College, Aerospace Engineering Department, Saint Louis University, Purdue University Short Course ‘Integration of Winged Flight Vehicles’, 1989.Google Scholar
12.Grossman, E.M. Army Eyes Advanced Hypersonic Weapon, Inside Defense.com, January 2007.Google Scholar
13.Rutledge, W. Hypersonics in the USA: New Partnerships in the 21st Century, OUSD AT&L)/PSA, Strategic Warfare, at the 17th AIAA International Space Planes and Hypersonic Systems and Technologies Conference, April 2011.Google Scholar
14.Maita, M.Japan’s Activities – National Report 2012, 18th AIAA/3AF International Space Planes and Hypersonic Systems and Technologies Conference, Tours, France, September 2012.Google Scholar
15.Loff, S. NASA Invests in Private Sector Space Flight with SpaceX, Rocketplane-Kistler, NASA.gov, August 2006.Google Scholar
16. Anon, 2011 U.S. Commercial Space Transportation Developments and Concepts: Vehicles, Technologies, and Spaceports, Federal Aviation Administration, January 2011.Google Scholar
17.Erbland, P.J., Current and Near-Term RLV/Hypersonic Vehicle Programs, RTO-EN-AVT-116, RTO AVT Lecture Series on ‘Critical Technologies for Hypersonic Vehicle Development’, von Kármán Institute, Rhode-St-Genèse, Belgium, 10-14 May 2004.Google Scholar
18.Jackson, T.USA Applied Hypersonics, 88ABW-2009-4321, 16th AIAA/DLR/DGLR International Space Planes and Hypersonic Systems and Technologies Conference, Bremen, Germany, 19-22 October 2009.Google Scholar
19.Dolvin, D.Hypersonic International Flight Research and Experimentation (HIFiRE) – Fundamental Sciences and Technology Developement Strategy, AIAA 2008-2581, 15th AIAA International Space Planes and Hypersonic Systems and Technologies, Dayton, OH, USA, April-May 2008.Google Scholar
20.Boyce, R.Australia National Report, 2011, Key Speech, 17th AIAA International Space Planes and Hypersonic Systems and Technologies Conference, San Francisco, California, USA, 11 April 2011.Google Scholar
21.Falempin, F.France National Report, Key Speech, 16th AIAA/DLR/DGLR International Space Planes and Hypersonic Systems and Technologies Conference, Bremen, Germany, 19-22 October 2009Google Scholar
22.Vanbebber, C.Lockheed Martin Receives $218 Million for Long Range Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM) Demonstrations, Lockheed Martin, January 2011.Google Scholar
23.Fisher, R. Jr. Shenlong Space Plane Advances China’s Military Space Potential, International Assessment and Strategy Center, 17 December 2007.Google Scholar
24.Hempsell, M., Longstaff, R. and Bond, A. Skylon User’s Manual, SKY-REL-MA-0001, Rev. 1.1, Reaction Engines Ltd., January 2010.Google Scholar
25. Anon, USAF Space Plane Program In Works – Unmanned X-37B To Be Service’s Space Test Vehicle, Aero-News.net, 19 November 2006.Google Scholar
26.Orton, G. Air-Breathing Hypersonics Research at Boeing Phantom Works, AIAA 2002-5251, 11th AIAA/AAAF International Space Planes and Hypersonic Systems and Technologies Conference, October 2002.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
27.Mehta, U. Hypersonic Technologies and Aerospace Plane, Aerospace America, December 2008, pp 110–111.Google Scholar
28.Howell, J.T., George, P., Mankins, J.C. and Christenaen, C.B.Transformational Systems Concepts and Technologies for Our Future in Space, NASA/CP-2004-213229, Proceedings of a Workshop Sponsored by NASA, Huntsville, Alabama, USA, 17-19 June 2003.Google Scholar
29.Few, S.Information Dashboard Design: The Effective Visual Communication of Data, 1st ed, O’Reilly Media, February 2006.Google Scholar
30.Connolly, T. and Begg, C.Database Systems: A Practical Approach to Design, 6th ed, Addison-Wesley, 2014.Google Scholar
31. Anon, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions, The National Bureau of Economic Research, April 2012.Google Scholar
32.Miller, C.E. Is this the beginning of the end, or the end of the beginning, of deep space human spacefight? The Space Review, February 2012.Google Scholar
33. Anon, Science and Engineering Indicators 2012, NSB 12-01, National Science Board, National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics (NCSES), National Science Foundation, Arlington VA, USA, January 2012.Google Scholar
34.Gertz, B.China Conducts First Test of New Ultra-High Speed Missile Vehicle, The Washington Free Beacon, January 2014.Google Scholar