Traditionally, actuaries make their predictions based on simple, robust methods. Stochastic models become increasingly popular because they can enrich the point estimates with error estimates or even provide the whole probability distribution. Here, we construct such a model for German inpatient health expenses per age using the functional data approach. This allows us to see in which age groups the expenses change the most and where predictions are most uncertain. Jumps in the derived model parameters indicate that 3 years might be outliers. In fact, they can be explained by changes in the reimbursement system and must be dealt with. As an application, we compute the probability distribution of the total health expenses in the upcoming years.

We consider single-server scheduling to minimize holding costs where the capacity, or rate of service, depends on the number of jobs in the system, and job sizes become known upon arrival. In general, this is a hard problem, and counter-intuitive behavior can occur. For example, even with linear holding costs the optimal policy may be something other than SRPT or LRPT, it may idle, and it may depend on the arrival rate. We first establish an equivalence between our problem of deciding which jobs to serve when completed jobs immediately leave, and a problem in which we have the option to hold on to completed jobs and can choose when to release them, and in which we always serve jobs according to SRPT. We thus reduce the problem to determining the release times of completed jobs. For the clearing, or transient system, where all jobs are present at time 0, we give a complete characterization of the optimal policy and show that it is fully determined by the cost-to-capacity ratio. With arrivals, the problem is much more complicated, and we can obtain only partial results.

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs)-based techniques have dominated state-of-the-art results in most problems related to computer vision, audio recognition, and natural language processing in the past few years, resulting in strong industrial adoption from all leading technology companies worldwide. One of the major obstacles that have historically delayed large-scale adoption of ANNs is the huge computational and power costs associated with training and testing (deploying) them. In the mean-time, Neuromorphic Computing platforms have recently achieved remarkable performance running the bio-realistic Spiking Neural Networks at high throughput and very low power consumption making them a natural alternative to ANNs. Here, we propose using the Random Neural Network, a spiking neural network with both theoretical and practical appealing properties, as a general purpose classifier that can match the classification power of ANNs on a number of tasks while enjoying all the features of being a spiking neural network. This is demonstrated on a number of real-world classification datasets.

Recently, an alternative measure of uncertainty called extropy is proposed by Lad et al. [12]. The extropy is a dual of entropy which has been considered by researchers. In this article, we introduce an alternative measure of uncertainty of random variable which we call it cumulative residual extropy. This measure is based on the cumulative distribution function F. Some properties of the proposed measure, such as its estimation and applications, are studied. Finally, some numerical examples for illustrating the theory are included.

The paper shows the connections between some importance indices for the components in an engineering coherent system and the performance of the system obtained when a redundancy mechanism is applied to a specific component. A copula approach is used to model the dependency among the components. This approach includes the popular case of independent components. Under some assumptions, it is proved that if component i is more important than component j, then the system obtained by applying a redundancy procedure to the ith component is better, under different stochastic criteria, than that obtained with the jth component. These results can be applied to several redundancy mechanisms. A new importance index is defined to study active redundancies. Some illustrative examples are provided.

We consider an M/M/1 retrial queue subject to negative customers (called as G-retrial queue). The arrival of a negative customer forces all positive customers to leave the system and causes the server to fail. At a failure instant, the server is sent to be repaired immediately. Based on a natural reward-cost structure, all arriving positive customers decide whether to join the orbit or balk when they find the server is busy. All positive customers are selfish and want to maximize their own net benefit. Therefore, this system can be modeled as a symmetric noncooperative game among positive customers and the fundamental problem is to identify the Nash equilibrium balking strategy, which is a stable strategy in the sense that if all positive customers agree to follow it no one can benefit by deviating from it, that is, it is a strategy that is the best response against itself. In this paper, by using queueing theory and game theory, the Nash equilibrium mixed strategy in unobservable case and the Nash equilibrium pure strategy in observable case are considered. We also present some numerical examples to demonstrate the effect of the information together with some parameters on the equilibrium behaviors.

Most of the multivariate counting processes studied in the literature are regular processes, which implies, ignoring the types of the events, the non-occurrence of multiple events. However, in practice, several different types of events may occur simultaneously. In this paper, a new class of multivariate counting processes which allow simultaneous occurrences of multiple types of events is suggested and its stochastic properties are studied. For the modeling of such kind of process, we rely on the tool of superposition of seed counting processes. It will be shown that the stochastic properties of the proposed class of multivariate counting processes are explicitly expressed. Furthermore, the marginal processes are also explicitly obtained. We analyze the multivariate dependence structure of the proposed class of counting processes.

The elasticity of life expectancy is an important feature in life tables. It is also known as life table entropy in the areas of demography and biology, and as normalized cumulative residual entropy in reliability theory. The elasticity of life expectancy provides useful information on studying the way in which small variations in the force of mortality (or hazard rate) affects the life expectancy. In this paper, a perturbation analysis of the hazard rate to the expected interepoch intervals in a non-homogeneous Poisson process is applied, and further interpretations are given by using a normalized version of the generalized cumulative residual entropy. Properties of the elasticity, including ordering results, bounds and empirical estimation, are obtained. Moreover, the dynamic version of the elasticity is studied, and some monotonicity and characterization results are given.

In the subject of optimal stopping, the classical secretary problem is concerned with optimally selecting the best of n candidates when their relative ranks are observed sequentially. This problem has been extended to optimally selecting the kth best candidate for k ≥ 2. While the optimal stopping rule for k=1,2 (and all n ≥ 2) is known to be of threshold type (involving one threshold), we solve the case k=3 (and all n ≥ 3) by deriving an explicit optimal stopping rule that involves two thresholds. We also prove several inequalities for p(k, n), the maximum probability of selecting the k-th best of n candidates. It is shown that (i) p(1, n) = p(n, n) > p(k, n) for 1<k<n, (ii) p(k, n) ≥ p(k, n + 1), (iii) p(k, n) ≥ p(k + 1, n + 1) and (iv) p(k, ∞): = lim n→∞p(k, n) is decreasing in k.

Supply chains are fundamental to the economy of the world and many supply chains focus on perishable items, such as food, or even clothing that is subject to a limited shelf life due to fashion and seasonable effects. G-networks have not been previously applied to this important area. Thus in this paper, we apply G-networks to supply chain systems and investigate an optimal order allocation problem for a N-node supply chain with perishable products that share the same order source of fresh products. The objective is to find an optimal order allocation strategy to minimize the purchase price per object from the perspective of the customers. An analytical solution based on G-networks with batch removal, together with optimization methods are shown to produce the desired results. The results are illustrated by a numerical example with realistic parameters.

This paper studies a periodic-review single-commodity setup-cost inventory model with backorders and holding/backlog costs satisfying quasiconvexity assumptions. We show that the Markov decision process for this inventory model satisfies the assumptions that lead to the validity of optimality equations for discounted and average-cost problems and to the existence of optimal (s, S) policies. In particular, we prove the equicontinuity of the family of discounted value functions and the convergence of optimal discounted lower thresholds to the optimal average-cost lower threshold for some sequence of discount factors converging to 1. If an arbitrary nonnegative amount of inventory can be ordered, we establish stronger convergence properties: (i) the optimal discounted lower thresholds converge to optimal average-cost lower threshold; and (ii) the discounted relative value functions converge to average-cost relative value function. These convergence results previously were known only for subsequences of discount factors even for problems with convex holding/backlog costs. The results of this paper also hold for problems with fixed lead times.

The Age-Period-Cohort-Improvement (APCI) model is a new addition to the canon of mortality forecasting models. It was introduced by Continuous Mortality Investigation as a means of parameterising a deterministic targeting model for forecasting, but this paper shows how it can be implemented as a fully stochastic model. We demonstrate a number of interesting features about the APCI model, including which parameters to smooth and how much better the model fits to the data compared to some other, related models. However, this better fit also sometimes results in higher value-at-risk (VaR)-style capital requirements for insurers, and we explore why this is by looking at the density of the VaR simulations.

This abstract relates to the following paper: Currie, I., Kleinow, T., Richards, S. and Ritchie, G. (2019) A stochastic implementation of the APCI model for mortality projections. British Actuarial Journal. Cambridge University Press, 24. doi:10.1017/S1357321718000260.

In this paper, we consider a generalized Pólya urn model with multiple drawings and time-dependent reinforcements. Suppose an urn initially contains w white and r red balls. At the nth action, m balls are drawn at random from the urn, say k white and m−k red balls, and then replaced in the urn along with cnk white and cn(m − k) red balls, where {cn} is a given sequence of positive integers. Repeat the above procedure ad infinitum. Let Xn be the proportion of the white balls in the urn after the nth action. We first show that Xn converges almost surely to a random variable X. Next, we give a necessary and sufficient condition for X to have a Bernoulli distribution with parameter w/(w + r). Finally, we prove that X is absolutely continuous if {cn} is bounded.

Solvency II came into force on 1 January 2016 and included a transitional measure on technical provisions (“TMTP”) designed to help smooth in the capital impact of Solvency II over a 16-year period. The working party’s view is that the main intention of the TMTP is to mitigate the impact of the introduction of the risk margin, which significantly increases the technical provisions of firms, relative to their Solvency I Pillar 2 liabilities.

The majority of firms who hold a TMTP have now had at least one recalculation approved by the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA); or are in the process of applying for a recalculation. Despite this large number of approved recalculations, there remains significant uncertainty in the industry around the approach and triggers for recalculation.

This paper considers aspects of TMTP recalculation for regulated UK life firms, for example practicalities of the calculation, asset and liability considerations, and communications/announcements.

In this paper, we outline the need for pragmatism when considering the approach to recalculation of a measure originally intended to serve as the bridge between two regimes. We call for an allowance for doing what is sensible in a principles-based regime balancing what might be more theoretically correct with what is practical and possible to support effective management of the business.

Digital technology is starting to enable new and improved modes of healthcare delivery. The healthcare and disability claims spaces are closely intertwined. Disability claimants certainly have healthcare needs but disability claims management has the added dimension of supporting return to work.

In this paper, we explain what is meant by the term “Digital Health.” We then compare the challenges in the healthcare and disability claims management spaces where digital technology may improve outcomes. We touch briefly on how the efficacy of digital technology may be evaluated. The later parts of the paper focus on Digital Health technology providers who have engaged with the insurance industry and we conclude with some learnings around the challenges of implementing these technology-based opportunities.

This paper focuses on interventions once a policyholder’s health has failed to the extent that they need to claim. There are many opportunities to improve wellness and prevent claim using digital technology, as noted by the IFoA Wearables and Internet of Things Working Party,1 and we do not discuss these further this paper.