The European Union sees towns and cities, and especially the major cities, as a ‘motor of growth’. At the same time, the EU recognises that many towns and cities are not growing, and ‘shrinking cities’ also occupy a prominent place on the European policy and research agenda. Shrinking cities do not fit the principles of European (or national) policy. They do not, for instance, meet the principles of the European model for sustainable urban developments: shrinking towns and cities are usually not ‘attractive places’ or ‘motors of growth’, they do not usually exhibit ‘social progress’, they are not ‘powerful regional centres’ and they are often situated in economically underperforming regions. Policymakers, not only in Brussels but also at the national, regional or local levels, usually wish to combat shrinkage with measures to return to growth as quickly as possible. One of the development concepts that often raises strong expectations is ‘the creative city’. But isn't the creative city above all a policy concept for ‘winners’, for growing cities? Or do shrinking cities perhaps also have creative opportunities?

Shrinkage need not be a disaster

Before exploring possible answers to this question, we need to question the obsession (not only in Europe) with population growth and economic growth. Population shrinkage is not by definition a disaster for a city. There are different types of shrinkage: shrinkage occurs in all kinds of forms and degrees. Before a population forecast leads to panic in a city, one should first take a close look at what is really happening and whether there are real reasons for concern. Elements that should be considered are whether just the number of city residents is decreasing or also the number of households (and linked to this: are houses standing empty or not), which population groups are shrinking and which may also be growing, whether the shrinkage is long-term and structural or only incidental, and above all the extent to which the population shrinkage is accompanied by economic shrinkage or stagnation. In this context cities also need to realise that many European towns and cities already have a shrinking population and that in the coming decades this will apply to many more European cities.