Introduction

Over the past decade, the UK social security system has undergone a period of unprecedented reform. Universal Credit (UC), the flagship policy of welfare reform introduced in 2013, brings together six existing working-age benefits and merges what were previously separate systems of out-of-work (eg Jobseeker’s Allowance) and in-work financial support (eg Working Tax Credits) (DWP, 2010). In a ‘ground-breaking’ move with ‘no comparable precedents’ (SSAC, 2017), UC brings workers in receipt of Tax Credits within the scope of the UK’s conditionality regime. Here, the government expects low-income workers to either try to increase their hours or pay in their current workplace, search for additional work with a different employer (take on multiple jobs) or take up alternative work elsewhere (DWP, 2018). After repeated delays, the government now expects full implementation of UC by 2024 – at which point it is estimated that approximately one million households will be subject to in-work conditionality (SSAC, 2017). This significant policy shift not only resituates those who are in work and on a low income within the social security system, but also makes the tripartite relationship between employers, workers and the welfare state more explicit.

Researchers and policymakers are yet to cement and understand the exact parameters of this policy shift, made more complicated by the changing labour market conditions associated with both Brexit and the 2020/21 COVID-19 lockdowns. In-work conditionality attracts concerns and, although on face value it is ideologically suited to the Conservative welfare reform agenda, it is a politically ambiguous development with the potential to deter Conservative Party voters with dependent children (Abbas and Chrisp, 2021). In-work conditionality is also ‘without precedent internationally’ (Monaghan and Ingold, 2019: 355) and lacks a robust evidence base as an effective active labour market policy (ALMP). Early trialling through randomised control trials (RCTs) involved the extension of varying levels of conditionality to those in work (DWP, 2018), that is, a Work First, then Work More approach (Jones, 2021). A Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) commissioned evaluation found limited positive impacts: participants in a ‘Frequent Support’ group, whom Jobcentre Plus mandated to engage in job-search activities and fortnightly Work Search Review meetings with work coaches while in work, earned an average of just over L5 more per week (DWP, 2018).