Synopsis: The general focus of this final chapter is on numerical weather prediction (NWP) at the mesoscale. NWP models have theoretical limits imposed by the nonlinear governing equations and approximations, as well as by errors in the initial and boundary conditions. These theoretical limits are viewed in the context of actual applications of mesoscale forecast models. Consideration is given to deterministic forecasts, and then to the use of model ensembles to produce probabilistic forecasts. Measures needed to evaluate the accuracy and skill of these forecasts, especially on the scale of convective precipitating storms, are also considered. The chapter concludes with a section devoted to possible approaches to – and the feasibility of – longer-range prediction of mesoscale-convective processes.

Introduction

This chapter focuses on the limits and uses of numerical weather prediction (NWP) on the mesoscale. Because of an intrinsic link to digital computing technology, mesoscale predictability and prediction comprise rapidly advancing areas of basic and applied research. An attempt is made herein to introduce the reader to enough material to appreciate the directions of these advances.