Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-84b7d79bbc-rnpqb Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-08-01T05:18:05.707Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

1 - The clash between politicians and economists

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 December 2023

Lorenzo Forni
Affiliation:
Università degli Studi di Padova, Italy
Get access

Summary

“It will take a lot for people to get there, although I predict that a few years from now, when you ask people whether they voted Trump in 2016, the vast majority will say they didn’t.”

Paul Krugman, July 2018*

Paul Krugman, an economist with a career at the best universities, Nobel prize-winner, and one of the world's most famous and respected economists, has been one of President Trump's leading critics. Via Twitter (and his column in The New York Times) Krugman has not pulled his punches, taking on the president for his economic policy choices. Moreover, as an expert on international trade, Krugman has targeted Trump's protectionist proposals and measures. He has not been alone in his criticism, as most economists believe that the main measures adopted and proposed by the Trump administration have been wrong.

In fact, the Trump administration seems to have ignored all of the economists’ suggestions. In 2018, it initiated a broad fiscal stimulus including tax cuts and spending increases, which made the US debt dynamic even more unsustainable than it was already. Trump launched a series of bilateral trade negotiations, threatening and implementing tariffs and other protectionist measures, when economic theory argues that what matters is the overall trade deficit (not the bilateral deficits) and that there are benefits from free trade. The insight that countries are better off exporting the products they are relatively good at producing while importing the others, dates back to the ideas of the British political economist David Ricardo (1772–1823).

Observing such a divergence between economists and politicians in the United States, one of the most developed countries in the world, makes one think. Is it possible that the president of the most powerful economy in the world would ground his policies in erroneous reasoning or data that do not exist? Or is it that economists are losing touch with reality and do not understand that their theories no longer work? Indeed, economists are not infallible. They were widely criticized for not having foreseen the financial crisis of 2008, epitomized by Queen Elizabeth's now infamous question, “Why did no one see it coming?” during a visit to the London School of Economics in 2008. They also failed to understand and anticipate the dissatisfaction of the American middle class that led to the election of Donald Trump. So, who has got it right?

Type
Chapter
Information
Publisher: Agenda Publishing
Print publication year: 2021

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure coreplatform@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×