Introduction

This chapter aims to introduce the China factors in explaining the evolution of Japan’s relations with Russia. Although it is apparent in 2023 that the competition structure between the China-Russia camp and the allies of the United States is intensified, in earlier years we could see many independent diplomatic initiatives by Japan and by Russia. The following sections will first explain the China factors in the diplomatic strategy of Russia and Japan, and then the change of strategic situations through the events between Japan and Russia since 2013. Prime Minister Abe Shinzō was a key player to create the National Security Strategy in 2013, and set the two pillar objectives in his Russia diplomacy: a better bilateral relation for a settlement of the long-standing Northern Territories issue, and a more favorable strategic balance in Northeast Asia. Japan’s interests in the existing international norms and the status-quo in Northeast Asia were compatible with its efforts for a closer tie with Russia, since Russia was regarded as a status-quo power in the neighborhood of Japan. In 2014 the eruption of the Ukraine crisis changed that perception, and Japan’s diplomatic options were limited by the new trade-off factor: joining the like-minded partner countries to oppose the Russian actions in Ukraine to uphold the rule-based order principles, or upgrading the relations with Russia for the two pillar objectives. Prime Minister Abe intensified diplomatic efforts toward both China and Russia in the narrower window. As a result of the difficult years, however, the Russian attitude became less favorable to Japan, and Japan’s diplomatic options became more limited.