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3 - Bayesian methods

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  06 July 2010

G. A. Young
Affiliation:
Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, London
R. L. Smith
Affiliation:
University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
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Summary

This chapter develops the key ideas in the Bayesian approach to inference. Fundamental ideas are described in Section 3.1. The key conceptual point is the way that the prior distribution on the unknown parameter θ is updated, on observing the realised value of the data x, to the posterior distribution, via Bayes’ law. Inference about θ is then extracted from this posterior. In Section 3.2 we revisit decision theory, to provide a characterisation of the Bayes decision rule in terms of the posterior distribution. The remainder of the chapter discusses various issues of importance in the implementation of Bayesian ideas. Key issues that emerge, in particular in realistic data analytic examples, include the question of choice of prior distribution and computational difficulties in summarising the posterior distribution. Of particular importance, therefore, in practice are ideas of empirical Bayes inference (Section 3.5), Monte Carlo techniques for application of Bayesian inference (Section 3.7) and hierarchical modelling (Section 3.8). Elsewhere in the chapter we provide discussion of Stein's paradox and the notion of shrinkage (Section 3.4). Though not primarily a Bayesian problem, we shall see that the James–Stein estimator may be justified (Section 3.5.1) as an empirical Bayes procedure, and the concept of shrinkage is central to practical application of Bayesian thinking. We also provide here a discussion of predictive inference (Section 3.9) from a Bayesian perspective, as well as a historical description of the development of the Bayesian paradigm (Section 3.6).

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Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2005

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  • Bayesian methods
  • G. A. Young, Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, London, R. L. Smith, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
  • Book: Essentials of Statistical Inference
  • Online publication: 06 July 2010
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511755392.004
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  • Bayesian methods
  • G. A. Young, Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, London, R. L. Smith, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
  • Book: Essentials of Statistical Inference
  • Online publication: 06 July 2010
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511755392.004
Available formats
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Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • Bayesian methods
  • G. A. Young, Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, London, R. L. Smith, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
  • Book: Essentials of Statistical Inference
  • Online publication: 06 July 2010
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511755392.004
Available formats
×