Skip to main content Accessibility help
Hostname: page-component-7d684dbfc8-mqbnt Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2023-09-29T18:36:55.723Z Has data issue: false Feature Flags: { "corePageComponentGetUserInfoFromSharedSession": true, "coreDisableEcommerce": false, "coreDisableSocialShare": false, "coreDisableEcommerceForArticlePurchase": false, "coreDisableEcommerceForBookPurchase": false, "coreDisableEcommerceForElementPurchase": false, "coreUseNewShare": true, "useRatesEcommerce": true } hasContentIssue false

13 - Global Demographic Change, Labor Force Growth, and Economic Performance

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 June 2012

Rod Tyers
University of Western Australia, Australia
Qun Shi
Australian National University, Australia
Elena Ianchovichina
The World Bank, Washington, DC
Terrie L. Walmsley
Purdue University, Indiana
Get access



Recent changes in global demographic behavior, including to fertility, mortality, migration, and the sex ratio at birth, have been considerable and many were not widely anticipated in recent decades. In most countries, consistent with the central phase of the global demographic transition, infant mortality fell through the course of the last century and adult life expectancy increased, causing a surge in population growth. The declines in birth rates as part of the final phase of this transition have been particularly sharp, first in developed countries and recently in many developing countries. Before this century is half over, populations in Japan and some European countries are likely to be smaller than they were in 1990, with these declines in total populations being preceded by declines in the number and proportion of people of working age.

The economic implications of these demographic trends and uncertainties are the subject of an already substantial global literature. Recent macroeconomic studies of demographic change have been global in scope, emphasizing the effects of aging on average saving rates and financial flows (Bryant and McKibbin 1998, 2001; Bryant et al. 2003; Faruqee and Muhleisen 2002). This work has clearly demonstrated the substantial implications of demographic change in some regions for economic performance in others. It has, however, fallen short of the complete demographic modeling needed to capture the three principal avenues through which demographic change influences economic performance: labor force growth, average saving rates, and age-specific consumption variation.

Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2012

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)


Abdel-Ghany, M. and D. L., Sharpe. 1997. “Consumption Patterns among the Young-Old and Old-Old”. Journal of Consumer Affairs 31 (1), 90–112.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Attanasio, O. P. and J., Banks. 1998. “Trends In Household Saving Don't Justify Tax Incentives to Boost Saving”. Economic Policy: A European Forum 10 (27), 547–83.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Attanasio, O. P., J., Banks, C., Meghir, and G., Weber. 1999. “Humps and Bumps in Lifetime Consumption”. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 17 (1), 22–35.Google Scholar
Attanasio, O. P. and M., Szekely. 1998, December. Household Savings and Income Distribution in Mexico. Office of the Chief Economist, Documento de Trabajo No. 390. Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank.Google Scholar
Barro, R. J., and G. S., Becker. 1989. “Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth”. Econometrica 57 (2), 481–501.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blisard, N. 2001a. Food Spending in American Households, 1997–98. Economic Research Service Statistical Bulletin 972. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Agriculture.Google Scholar
Blisard, N. 2001b. Income and Food Expenditures Decomposed by Cohort, Age and Time Effects. Electronic Report from the Economic Research Service. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Agriculture. Available at Scholar
Blisard, N., J. N., Variyam, and J., Cromartie. 2003. Food Expenditures by U.S. Households: Looking Ahead to 2020. Electronic Report from the Economic Research Service. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Agriculture. Available at Scholar
Bloom, D. E. and J. G., Williamson. 1997. “Demographic Transitions, Human Resource Development and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia”. In J., Sachs and D., Bloom (eds.), Emerging Asia (pp. 419–455). Manila: Asian Development Bank.Google Scholar
Booth, H. T. 2004. “On the Importance of Being Uncertain: Forecasting Population Futures for Australia”. People and Place 12 (2), 1–12.Google Scholar
Booth, H. T., J., Maindonald, and L., Smith. 2002. “Applying Lee-Carter under Conditions of Variable Mortality Decline”. Population Studies 56 (3), 325–36.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Booth, H. T. and L., Tickle. 2003. “The Future Aged: New Projections of Australia's Elderly Population”. Australasian Journal of Ageing 22 (4), 196–202.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bryant, R. C. 2001. Incorporating Demographic Change in Multi-Country Demographic Models: Some Preliminary Results. Available at
Bryant, R. C., H., Faruqee, D., Veculescu, and E., Arbatli. 2003. Fertility Declines and Youth Dependency: Implications for the Global Economy. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution.Google Scholar
Bryant, R. C. and W. J., McKibbin. 1998. Issues in Modelling the Global Dimensions of Demographic Change. Available at
Case, A. and A., Deaton. 2002, May. Consumption, Health, Gender and Poverty. Research Program in Development Studies. Princeton: Princeton University.Google Scholar
Chan, M. M. and R, Tyers. 2006, December. Global Demographic Change and Labour Force Growth: Projections to 2020. Centre for Economic Policy Research Discussion Paper, Research School of Social Sciences (RSSS). Canberra: Australian National University.Google Scholar
Dixon, P. B. and M., Rimmer. 2002. Dynamic General Equilibrium Modelling for Forecasting and Economic Policy. No. 256 in the Contributions for Economic Analysis series. Amsterdam: Elsevier North Holland.Google Scholar
Duncan, R., Q., Shi, and R., Tyers. 2005. Global Demographic Change and Demand for Food in Australia. Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation Report No 05/014. Canberra: RIRDC.Google Scholar
Faruqee, H. and M., Muhleisen. 2002. “Population Ageing in Japan: Demographic Shock and Fiscal Sustainability”. Japan and the World Economy 15: 185–210.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gibson, J. and G., Scobie. 2001. “A Cohort Analysis of Household Income, Consumption and Savings”. New Zealand Economic Papers 35 (2), 196–216.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grilli, E. and M. C., Yang. 1988. “Primary Commodity Prices, Manufactured Goods Prices and the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries: What the Long Run Shows”. World Bank Economic Review, 2 (1).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Harrigan, J. 1995. “The Volume of Trade in Differentiated Products: Theory and Evidence”. Review of Economics and Statistics 77 (2): 283–93.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hertel, T. W. (ed.). 1997. Global Trade Analysis Using the GTAP Model. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Huff, K. M., K., Hanslow, T. W., Hertel, and M. E., Tsigas. 1997. “GTAP Behavioral Parameters”. In T. W., Hertel (ed.), Global Trade Analysis Using the GTAP Model (pp. 124–48).Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
IMF. 2004, September. World Economic Outlook. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
Kitamura, U., N., Takayama, and F., Arita. 2001, September. Household Savings and Wealth Distribution in Japan. Discussion Paper No. 38, Project on Intergenerational Equity, Institute of Economic Research. Tokyo: Hitotsubashi University.Google Scholar
Lee, R. D. 2003. “The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change”. Journal of Economic Perspectives 17 (4), 167–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis, W. A. 1952. “World Production, Prices and Trade, 1870–1960”. Manchester School of Economic and Social Sciences 20 (2), 105–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lipsey, R. E. 1994. Quality Change and Other Influences on Measures of Export Prices of Manufactured Goods. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 1348. Washington, DC: World Bank.Google Scholar
Liu, J., N. Van, Leeuwen, T. T., Vo, R., Tyers, and T. W., Hertel. 1998, September. Disaggregating Labor Payments by Skill Level in GTAP. Technical Paper No. 11. West Lafayette, IN: Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University, West Lafayette. Available at Scholar
Mason, A. (ed.). 2003. Population Change and Economic Development in East Asia: Challenges Met and Opportunities Seized. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
McDonald, P. and R., Kippen. 2001. “Labour Supply Prospects in 16 Developed Countries”. Population and Development Review 27 (1): 1–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Obstfeld, M. and K., Rogoff. 2000. “The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?” In B., Bernanke and K., Rogoff (eds.), NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000 (pp. 339–412). Cambridge: NBER and the MIT Press.Google Scholar
OECD. 1996. Ageing in OECDCountries. Social Policy Studies No. 20. Paris: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
OECD. 1998. Maintaining Prosperity in an Ageing Society. Paris: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
OECD. 1999. Employment Outlook. Paris: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
OECD. 2002. Employment Outlook. Paris: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Paulin, G. D. 2000. “Expenditure Patterns of Older Americans, 1984–97”. Monthly Labour Review 123 (5), 3–28.Google Scholar
Productivity Commission. 1999, November. Microeconomic Reforms and Australian Productivity: Exploring the Links. Commission Research Paper. Melbourne: Government of Australia.
Productivity Commission. 2001, April. Resource Movements and Labour Productivity, An Australian Illustration 1994–95 to 1997–98. Staff Research Paper. Melbourne: Government of Australia.
Regmi, A., M. S., Deepak, J. L., Seale Jr., and J., Bernstein. 2001. Cross Country Analysis of Food Consumption Patterns. Economic Research Service WRS-01–1. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Agriculture.Google Scholar
Shi, Q. and R., Tyers. 2004. Global Population Forecast Errors, Economic Performance and Australian Food Export Demand. Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics No.439. Canberra: Australian National University. Available at Scholar
Trefler, D. and H., Lai. 1999. Gains from Trade: Standard Errors with the CUSMonopolistic Competition Model. Toronto: University of Toronto.Google Scholar
Tyers, R. and J., Golley. 2006. China's Growth to 2030: The Roles of Demographic Change and Investment Risk. Paper presented at the conference, WTO, China and the Asian Economies IV: Economic Integration and Development, University of International Business and Economics, June 24–5, Beijing.Google Scholar
Tyers, R. and Q., Shi. 2007. “Global Demographic Change, Policy Responses and Their Economic Implications”. World Economy 30 (4), 537–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tyers, R., Q., Shi, and M. M., Chan. 2005, September. Global Demographic Change and Economic Performance: Implications for the Food Sector. Report to the Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation. Canberra: RIRDC.Google Scholar
United Nations. 2000, March. Replacement Migration: Is It a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations? UN Population Division. New York: UN Secretariat.
United Nations. 2003, February. World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision. UNPopulation Division. New York: UNSecretariat. Available at
Vedi, J. 2005. The Global Economic Effects of Expanded Skilled Migration. Honours dissertation, School of Economics, College of Business and Economics, Australian National University.Google Scholar
Weber, G., R., Miniaci, and C., Monfardini. 2002. “Changing Consumption Patterns”. In H., Siebert (ed.), Economic Policy for Ageing Societies (pp. 53–76). Berlin: Springer Verlag.Google Scholar
WHO. 2003. Mortality Database: Table One:Number of Registered Deaths. Geneva:World Health Organization. Available at,inds,mort&language=english.
Williamson, J. G. 1998. “Growth, Distribution and Demography: Some Lessons from History”. Explorations in Economic History 35 (3), 241–71.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the or variations. ‘’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats