Is Iraq turning into a Vietnam?

Consider: Optimism among American official circles about the progress of the Vietnam war was shattered by the Vietcong uprising in South Vietnam in February 1968. The Tet (Lunar New Year) offensive was timed for an American presidential election year and, though widely regarded as a military failure, had the intended political effects.

Then-president Lyndon B. Johnson declared that he would not seek re-election for a second term, ordered the suspension of bombing on large parts of North Vietnam and made overtures for a negotiated settlement of the war. Presidential candidate Richard Nixon, who eventually won the election, made it his campaign platform to end the war and bring American troops home, albeit on honourable terms. These developments signalled that America had decided it could not win the war; the only question that remained was the terms of the retreat.

The year 2004 is also proving to be a year in which violence is increasingly being used by various groups to achieve political ends. Those who carried out the deadly Madrid bombings on the eve of the Spanish elections, succeeded in bringing to power a government opposed to the Spanish military involvement in Iraq. It is said to have been offered a “truce” from further attacks, if Spain withdraws its troops from Iraq. A foiled follow-up attempt to attack a high speed train track was probably intended to reinforce the message, if it had succeeded. There have been threats against Japanese interests, and Japanese civilians have been seized as hostages by unidentified groups in Iraq. And there are likely to be more pressures on countries which are helping to stabilize Iraq with troop contributions.

Are we going to see a repeat of 1968 in the security situation in Iraq and its impact on American policies to Iraq? Probably not, and at least not so soon or in the same way. On the surface, recent events in Fallujah in the Sunni triangle and the outbreak of pockets of Shi'site insurgency in southern Iraq bear similarity to 1968 Vietnam. The appearance of progress in subduing the Sunni insurgency and of relatively confident movement towards Iraqi self-rule has been dealt a blow, and in an American presidential election year.