We carry out the first statistical study that investigates the flare-coronal mass ejections (CMEs) association rate as function of the flare intensity and the total unsigned magnetic flux (ΦAR) of ARs that produces the flare. Our results show that flares of the same GOES class but originating from an AR of larger ΦAR, are much more likely confined. This implies that ΦAR is a decisive quantity describing the eruptive character of a flare, as it provides a global parameter relating to the strength of the background field confinement. We also calculated the mean twist values α in regions close to the polarity inversion line and proposed a new parameter α / ΦAR to measure the probability for a large flare to be associated with a CME. We find that the new parameter α/ ΦAR is well able to distinguish eruptive flares from confined flares.

During 2017, when the Sun was moving toward the minimum phase of solar cycle 24, an exceptionally eruptive active region (AR) NOAA 12673 emerged on the Sun during August 28-September 10. During the highest activity level, the AR turned into a δ-type sunspot region, which manifests the most complex configuration of magnetic fields from the photosphere to the coronal heights. The AR 12673 produced four X-class and 27 M-class flares, along with numerous C-class flares, making it one of the most powerful ARs of solar cycle 24. Notably, it produced the largest flare of solar cycle 24, namely, the X9.3 event on 2017 September 6. In this work, we highlight the results of our comprehensive analysis involving multi-wavelength imaging and coronal magnetic field modeling to understand the evolution and eruptivity from AR 12673. We especially focus on the morphological, spectral and kinematical evolution of the two X-class flares on 6 September 2017. We explore various large- and small-scale magnetic field structures of the active region which are associated with the triggering and subsequent outbursts during the powerful solar transients.

The Aditya-L1 is the first space-based solar observatory of the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO). The spacecraft will carry seven payloads providing uninterrupted observations of the Sun from the first Lagrangian point. Aditya-L1 comprises four remote sensing instruments, viz. a coronagraph observing in visible and infrared, a full disk imager in Near Ultra-Violet (NUV), and two full-sun integrated spectrometers in soft X-ray and hard X-ray. In addition, there are three instruments for in-situ measurements, including a magnetometer, to study the magnetic field variations during energetic events. Aditya-L1 is truly a mission for multi-messenger solar astronomy from space that will provide comprehensive observations of the Sun across the electromagnetic spectrum and in-situ measurements in a broad range of energy, including magnetic field measurements at L1.

A filament eruption may lead to a coronal mass ejection (CME), which is one of the main driving mechanisms of space weather. This work analyses a slow and flareless CME event associated with an erupting quiescent filament. By using the extreme ultraviolet images of the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory, we trace the evolution of the filament in detail, and present the manifestations of the role of magnetic fields in the low corona. The results suggest the existence of a magnetic flux rope in the pre-eruption structures. Our study of this complex magnetic system may lead to a better understanding of CMEs and their impact on the space weather.

The stellar magnetic field completely dominates the environment around late-type stars. It is responsible for driving the coronal high-energy radiation (e.g. EUV/X-rays), the development of stellar winds, and the generation transient events such as flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). While progress has been made for the first two processes, our understanding of the eruptive behavior in late-type stars is still very limited. One example of this is the fact that despite the frequent and highly energetic flaring observed in active stars, direct evidence for stellar CMEs is almost non-existent. Here we discuss realistic 3D simulations of stellar CMEs, analyzing their resulting properties in contrast with solar eruptions, and use them to provide a common framework to interpret the available stellar observations. Additionally, we present results from the first 3D CME simulations in M-dwarf stars, with emphasis on possible observable signatures imprinted in the stellar corona.

The stellar magnetic field is the driver of activity in the star and can trigger energetic flares, CMEs and ionized wind. These phenomena, specially CMEs, may have an important impact on the magnetosphere and atmosphere of the orbiting planets. To predict whether a CME will impact a planet, the effects of the background on the CME's trajectory must be taken into account. We used the MHD code ForeCAT – a model for CME deflection due to magnetic forces – to perform numerical simulations of CMEs being launched from both the Sun and Kepler-63, which is a young, solar-like star with high activity. Comparing results from Kepler-63 and the Sun gives us a panorama of the distinct activity level and star-planet interactions of these systems due to the difference of stellar ages and star-planet distances.

Solar coronal dimmings have been observed extensively in the past two decades and are believed to have close association with coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Recent study found that coronal dimming is the only signature that could differentiate powerful flares that have CMEs from those that do not. Therefore, dimming might be one of the best candidates to observe the stellar CMEs on distant Sun-like stars. In this study, we investigate the possibility of using coronal dimming as a proxy to diagnose stellar CMEs. By simulating a realistic solar CME event and corresponding coronal dimming using a global magnetohydrodynamics model (AWSoM: Alfvén-wave Solar Model), we first demonstrate the capability of the model to reproduce solar observations. We then extend the model for simulating stellar CMEs by modifying the input magnetic flux density as well as the initial magnetic energy of the CME flux rope. Our result suggests that with improved instrument sensitivity, it is possible to detect the coronal dimming signals induced by the stellar CMEs.

Mingantu Spectral Radioheliograph (MUSER) is an aperture-synthesis imaging telescope, dedicated to observe the Sun, operating on multiple frequencies in dm to cm range. The ability of MUSER to get images and measure Stokes I and V parameters simultaneously at many frequencies in a wide band is of fundamental importance. It allows one to approach/solve such important problems as measuring the strength, geometry and dynamics of magnetic field at coronal heights. Here we consider some of the recently developed radio physics methods to be used for solving the problems. These methods allow us to obtain information that is unattainable in other areas of the electromagnetic spectrum.

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) contribute to the perturbation of solar wind in the heliosphere. Thus, depending on the different phases of the solar cycle and the rate of CME occurrence, contribution of CMEs to solar wind parameters near the Earth changes. In the present study, we examine the long term occurrence rate of CMEs, their speeds, angular widths and masses. We attempt to find correlation between near sun parameters of the CMEs with near the Earth measurements. Importantly, we attempt to find what fraction of the averaged solar wind mass near the Earth is provided by the CMEs during different phases of the solar cycles.

Extreme solar storms are well known in the historical databases. Since the modern era, it has been possible to associate clearly geomagnetic disturbances with solar events (flares, SEP, CMEs). In the recent solar cycles the geoeffective events (number and strength) are decreasing. As an example, in the 2002 maximum activity year, we present how many flares, and CMEs were geoeffective. Based on observations and simulations, we discuss on the size of sunspots and the field strength to get more energetic flares (> 1032 ergs) in the near future.

A characteristic pattern of solar hard X-ray emission, first identified in SOL1969-03-30 by Frost & Dennis (1971), turns out to have a close association with the prolonged high-energy gamma-ray emission originally observed by Forrest et al. (1985). This identification has become clear via the observations of long-duration γ-ray flares by the Fermi/LAT experiment, for example in the event SOL2014-09-01. The distinctive features of these events include flat hard X-ray spectra extending well above 100 keV, a characteristic pattern of time development, low-frequency gyrosynchrotron peaks, CME association, and gamma-rays identifiable with pion decay originating in GeV ions. The identification of these events with otherwise known solar structures nevertheless remains elusive, in spite of the wealth of EUV imagery available from SDO/AIA. The quandary is that these events have a clear association with SEPs in the high corona, and yet the gamma-ray production implicates the photosphere itself, despite the strong mirror force that should focus the particles away from the Sun We discuss the morphology of these phenomena and propose a solution to this problem.

Forecasting the time of arrival of a Coronal Mass Ejection at Earth is of critical importance for our high-technology society and for any future manned exploration of the Solar System. As critical as the forecast accuracy is the knowledge of its precision, i.e. the error associated to the estimate. Here a statistical approach to the computation of the time of arrival using the Drag-Based Model is proposed through the introduction of probability distributions, rather than exact values, as input parameters, thus allowing the evaluation of the uncertainty on the forecast.

In this report we present a possible scheme of short-term CME detection forecasting developed on the basis of statistical analysis of solar radio emission regularities prior to “isolated” solar Coronal Mass Ejections registered in 1998, 2003, 2009-2013.

The longitudinal distribution of solar active regions shows non-homogeneous spatial behaviour, which is often referred to as Active Longitude (AL). Evidence for a significant statistical relationships between the AL and the longitudinal distribution of flare and coronal mass ejections (CME) occurrences is found in Gyenge et al. 2017 (ApJ, 838, 18). The present work forecasts the spatial position of AL, hence the most flare/CME capable active regions are also predictable. Our forecast method applies Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model for the next 2 years time period. We estimated the dates when the solar flare/CME-capable longitudinal belts face towards Earth.

Sophisticated instrumentation dedicated to studying and monitoring our Sun’s activity has proliferated in the past few decades, together with the increasing demand of specialized space weather forecasts that address the needs of commercial and government systems. As a result, theoretical and empirical models and techniques of increasing complexity have been developed, aimed at forecasting the occurrence of solar disturbances, their evolution, and time of arrival to Earth. Here we will review groundbreaking and recent methods to predict the propagation and evolution of coronal mass ejections and their driven shocks. The methods rely on a wealth of data sets provided by ground- and space-based observatories, involving remote-sensing observations of the corona and the heliosphere, as well as detections of radio waves.

We perform simulations of the interplanetary coronal mass ejections relating to the magnetic storm on 17 March 2015. A hierarchical mesh structure is used, which is controlled by an adaptive mesh refinement technique, with fine-scale cells where it matters, the structure of the running shock waves of the coronal mass ejections and co-rotating interactive regions. The initial and the inner-boundary conditions are derived from another simulation, which uses a split dodecahedron grid. The resulting shock-wave with the models adjusted to the observed ejection speed on the sky plane show delays by 20% in the arrival time at the Earth from the observed data. By contrast, the model adjusted to the observed arrival time at the Earth needs the ejection speed 30% higher than that in the above models.

Unknown aspects of the initiation, evolution, and associated phenomena of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), together with their capability of perturbing the fragile technological equilibrium on which nowadays society depends, turn them a compelling subject of study. While space weather forecasts are thus far not able to predict when and where in the Sun will the next CME take place, various CME triggering mechanisms have been proposed, without reaching consensus on which is the predominant one. To improve our knowledge in these respects, we investigate a long-duration active region throughout its life, from birth until decay along five solar rotations, in connection with its production of ejective events. We benefit from the wealth of solar remote-sensing data with improved temporal, spatial, and spectral resolution provided by the ground-breaking space missions STEREO, SDO, and SOHO. During the investigated time interval, which covers the months July – November 2010, the STEREO spacecraft were nearly 180 degrees apart, allowing for the uninterrupted tracking of the active region and its ensuing CMEs. The ejective aspect is examined from multi-viewpoint coronagraphic images, while the dynamics of the active region photospheric magnetic field are inspected by means of SDO/HMI data for specific subintervals of interest. The ultimate goal of this work in progress is to identify common patterns in the ejective aspect that can be connected with the active region characteristics.

We compare the results of using a Random Forest Classifier with the results of using Nonparametric Discriminant Analysis to classify whether a filament channel (in the case of a filament eruption) or an active region (in the case of a flare) is about to produce an event. A large number of descriptors are considered in each case, but it is found that only a small number are needed in order to get most of the improvement in performance over always predicting the majority class. There is little difference in performance between the two classifiers, and neither results in substantial improvements over simply predicting the majority class.

A M2.5 solar flare observed by RHESSI in the 6-100 keV range on July 6, 2006 led to a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). Two compact sources at 12-100 keV are seen at the beginning of the flare, whose further evolution fits well in a loop. Also, time-profiles of the flare at radio wavelengths are compared. The X-ray light-curves at different bands in the 6-100 keV range and radio time profiles show some peaks superimposed on smooth variations. The aim of this work is to compare the X-ray light-curves, of fluxes integrated over the whole source, with the physical parameters of the sources of the flare. Yashiro and Gopalswamy (2009) have found that the fraction of flares that produce CME increases with the flare energy. Here, we look for the characteristics of an M2.5 flare that could make it a generator of a CME. The idea is, in future works, to look in the light-curves of similar flares at other stars for these features. It is found that the CME onset takes place around the time when an X-ray source at 12-25 keV of Chromospheric evaporation stagnates at the loop apex, before the main peak at the light-curve at 25-50 keV and at the radio emission curves. Probably, the amount of evaporated plasma could play some role in triggering the CME.

We present a study of the M6.6 flare that occurred on 13 February 2011 in AR 11158. The flare was accompanied by a CME and EUV waves. We use multiwavelength observations from the ground: H-alpha Solar Telescope for Argentina (HASTA), and space: Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) and Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA), both onboard the Solar and Dynamic Observatory (SDO).