Monitoring a very frequently administered educational test with a relatively short history of stable operation imposes a number of challenges. Test scores usually vary by season, and the frequency of administration of such educational tests is also seasonal. Although it is important to react to unreasonable changes in the distributions of test scores in a timely fashion, it is not a simple matter to ascertain what sort of distribution is really unusual. Many commonly used approaches for seasonal adjustment are designed for time series with evenly spaced observations that span many years and, therefore, are inappropriate for data from such educational tests. Harmonic regression, a seasonal-adjustment method, can be useful in monitoring scale stability when the number of years available is limited and when the observations are unevenly spaced. Additional forms of adjustments can be included to account for variability in test scores due to different sources of population variations. To illustrate, real data are considered from an international language assessment.

In sub-Saharan Africa, and particularly within Ghana’s savanna ecosystem, scientific studies on the distribution patterns and habitat use of raptors, including vultures, are scarce. Despite global research on vulture abundance and habitat preferences, data from West Africa remain limited. This study examines the abundance of four vulture species, focusing on their seasonal activity, age distribution, and preference for three specific habitats, i.e. woodlands, riparian forests, and grasslands, in the southern part of Mole National Park (MNP), Ghana. We conducted a survey using 39 line transects during both dry and wet seasons to make an inventory of these species. Employing a generalised linear model, we assessed the influence of seasons, age, and habitat types on vulture abundance. Our survey recorded a total of 466 vultures, with Hooded Vulture Necrosyrtes monachus and White-backed Vulture Gyps africanus being the most frequently observed. Vulture numbers were notably higher in riparian and woodland areas than in grasslands, and adults were more prevalent than juveniles across all observed species. The study highlights the need for continuous monitoring and the protection of critical riparian habitats to aid in the conservation of these threatened species within the MNP.

We investigated how environmental conditions translate into reproductive success or failure in Aurelia aurita from the medusa to the polyp life stage. This study examined how: (i) settlement success and development of planula larvae and polyps vary across the year, (ii) the role of temperature in determining the successful settlement of larvae and growth of polyps, and (iii) the influence of maternal provisioning in the successful settlement of larvae and growth of polyps. Medusae were collected monthly from February to December 2019 from Horsea Lake, UK. Planula larvae were settled in conditions mimicking the in situ temperature and salinity of collection. For the individual treatments, planula collected in August settled most rapidly. Early development rates (<8 tentacles) were significantly higher than later growth rates (>8 tentacles) and were positively correlated with temperature, unlike later growth rates. Planula length, used as an indicator of maternal provisioning, varied significantly across the year. In July 2019, a high temperature anomaly coincided with an increased time spent by planula larvae in the water column. Increasing temperatures past thermal limits through the increasing occurrence of temperature anomalies is likely to be detrimental to larval settlement and indirectly to the replenishment of temperate polyp populations.

Farmland abandonment contributes to agroecosystem degradation and food crises. Sustainable farmland use requires a well-designed agri-environmental policy to provide farmers with incentives, including agroecosystem services apart from food production. One of these is recreation. Here, we focus on a Japanese terraced paddy land. We assessed seasonal changes in the value of recreational ecosystem services by integrating mobile phone big data of on-site visitors, collected between 2018 and 2020, into a valuation method. The application of mobile data enables the precise and consistent analysis of non-market agroecosystem services. The recreational value of the paddy land varied with season but overall was high. Sustainable farmland use provides social benefits, and we support the validity of agri-environmental policies that relate to economic incentives for agroecosystem conservation. However, the results show that the incentives provided by the public/government may be insufficient in comparison to this recreational value. Our findings provide information regarding the appropriate amount of economic support required to achieve sustainable agricultural land use in this setting.

The COVID-19 pandemic modified the epidemiology and the transmission of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). We collected data on RSV positivity and incidence from children hospitalized in the largest tertiary paediatric hospital in Greece before (2018–2020, period A), during (2020–2021, period B), and after (2021–2023, period C) the COVID-19 lockdown. A total of 9,508 children were tested for RSV. RSV positivity (%) was 17.6% (552/3,134) for period A, 2.1% (13/629) for period B, and 13.4% (772/5,745) for period C (p < 0.001). The mean age (±SD) of RSV-positive children among the three periods was A: 5.9(±9.3), B: 13.6 (±25.3), and C: 16.7 (±28.6) months (p < 0.001). The peak of RSV epidemiology was shifted from January–March (period A) to October–December (period C). RSV in-hospital incidence per 1,000 hospitalizations in paediatric departments was A:16.7, B:1.0, and C:28.1 (p < 0.001), and the incidence in the intensive care unit was A: 17.3, B: 0.6, and C: 26.6 (p < 0.001). A decrease in RSV incidence was observed during the COVID-19 lockdown period, whereas a significant increase was observed after the lockdown. A change in epidemiological patterns was identified after the end of the lockdown, with an earlier seasonal peak and an age shift of increased RSV incidence in older children.

One of the largest remnants of tropical dry forest is the South American Gran Chaco. A quarter of this biome is in Paraguay, but there have been few studies in the Paraguayan Chaco. The Gran Chaco flora is diverse in structure, function, composition and phenology. Fundamental ecological questions remain in this biome, such as what bioclimatic factors shape the Chaco’s composition, structure and phenology. In this study, we integrated forest inventories from permanent plots with monthly high-resolution NDVI from PlanetScope and historical climate data from WorldClim to identify bioclimatic predictors of forest structure, composition and phenology. We found that bioclimatic variables related to precipitation were correlated with stem density and Pielou evenness index, while temperature-related variables correlated with basal area. The best predictor of forest phenology (NDVI variation) was precipitation lagged by 1 month followed by temperature lagged by 2 months. In the period with most water stress, the phenological response correlates with diversity, height and basal area, showing links with dominance and tree size. Our results indicate that even if the ecology and function of Dry Chaco Forest is characterised by water limitation, temperature has a moderating effect by limiting growth and influencing leaf flush and deciduousness.

The source and temporal changes of minerals transported by the world's large rivers are important. In particular, clay minerals are important in evaluating the maturity of suspended sediments, weathering intensity, and source area. To examine seasonal changes in mineralogical compositions of the Changjiang River (CR), suspended particulate matter (SPM) samples were collected monthly for two hydrological cycles in Nanjing city and then were studied using X-ray diffraction (XRD), diffuse reflectance spectrophotometry (DRS), X-ray fluorescence spectrometry (XRF), and chemical analyses. The results indicate that the concentration of CR SPM ranges from 11.3 to 152 mg/L and is highly correlated to the rate of water discharge, with a greater concentration in flood season and lower concentrations during the dry season. CaO, MgO, and Na2O increase with increasing discharge whereas Al2O3 decreases sharply with increasing discharge. Dolomite, calcite, and plagioclase show strikingly similar seasonal variations and increase with increasing discharge with maximum concentrations in the flood season. In contrast, the clay mineral content exhibits the opposite trend with the lowest concentrations in the flood season. Illite dominates the clay minerals of the CR SPM, followed by chlorite, kaolinite, and smectite. Illite and kaolinite show distinctly seasonal variations; SPM contains more illite and less kaolinite during the flood season than during the dry season. The illite chemistry index and crystallinity, as well as kaolinite/illite ratio, all indicate intense physical erosion in the CR basin during the rainy season. Total iron (FeT) and highly reactive iron (FeHR) concentrations display slight seasonal changes with the smallest values observed during the flood season. Goethite is the dominant Fe oxide mineral phase in the CR SPM and hematite is a minor component, as revealed by DRS analyses. The FeT flux and FeHR flux are 2.786×106 T/y and 1.196×106 T/y, respectively.

Carbon isotope analysis of pedogenic carbonate (δ13CCarb) and soil organic matter (δ13CTOC) is widely applied in reconstructions of terrestrial paleovegetation. The δ13C of different archives is considered well matched and equally reflects the proportion of C3/C4 plant biomass covering the soil profile. However, modern soil and paleosol sequences provide substantial evidence that δ13CCarb and δ13CTOC do not always match, raising doubts about the accuracy of quantitative C4 plant reconstructions. Here we report paired δ13C records of pedogenic carbonates and organic matter occluded within carbonate nodules from the Shaozhai section in the central Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP). The δ13CCarb record exhibits a positive anomaly and exceeds the theoretical fractionation range with the coexisting δ13CTOC record during the expansion of C4 plants. The possibility of contamination by detrital carbonates and atmospheric CO2 affecting δ13CCarb was ruled out based on the morphological features, mineral fractions, and geochemical composition of carbonate nodules. Our study suggests that the enhanced respiration of C4 plants during pedogenic carbonate precipitation may have caused positive shifts in δ13CCarb records, supporting the hypothesis that the discrepancy in carbon sources explains the δ13CCarb positive anomaly. Thus, the δ13CCarb could reflect the maximum relative abundance of C4 plants during their metabolic peaks.

Many water-stressed regions of the globe have a highly seasonal precipitation regime. However, seasonality in the past and under changing climates is little studied. Submonthly records of sclerochronological δ18O and δ13C values of Melanopsis shells from the Jordan River Dureijat archaeological site (JRD) in the upper Jordan River valley presented here document the hydrology of paleo-Lake Hula. These records were assessed for changes in seasonal hydrology in the lake and compared with modern shells collected from present-day waterbodies in northern Israel and with models of δ18Oshell. Results from shells in sediments dating from the last glacial maximum (LGM) to the Bølling-Allerød imply changes in waterbody size that qualitatively parallel changes in the late Pleistocene Lake Lisan levels; Hula Lake was well buffered when Lake Lisan stood at a high stand and poorly buffered when water levels were lower. Furthermore, data from shells dated to the LGM suggest inflowing water with lower δ18O values than local rainfall, providing evidence for a greater proportion of snow in the catchment than today. Reconstruction of water δ18O and mixing-model calculations suggest that snowmelt contribution to spring water during the LGM may have been more than twice the amount in the modern-day catchment.

In this paper, we explore potential surplus modelling improvements by investigating how well the available models describe an insurance risk process. To this end, we obtain and analyse a real-life data set that is provided by an anonymous insurer. Based on our analysis, we discover that both the purchasing process and the corresponding claim process have seasonal fluctuations. Some special events, such as public holidays, also have impact on these processes. In the existing literature, the seasonality is often stressed in the claim process, while the cash inflow usually assumes simple forms. We further suggest a possible way of modelling the dependence between these two processes. A preliminary analysis of the impact of these patterns on the surplus process is also conducted. As a result, we propose a surplus process model which utilises a non-homogeneous Poisson process for premium counts and a Cox process for claim counts that reflect the specific features of the data.

Since the discovery of Legionnaires’ disease (LD), limited progress has been made in understanding the epidemiology of sporadic cases of LD. Outbreaks have confirmed that air conditioning and potable water systems can be sources of community-acquired LD. However, studying the association between water quality and LD incidence has been challenging due to the heterogeneity of water systems across large geographic areas. Furthermore, although seasonal trends in incidence have been linked to increased rainfall and temperatures, the large geographic units have posed similar difficulties. To address this issue, a retrospective ecological study was conducted in Washington, DC, from 2001 to 2019. The study identified aseasonal pattern of LD incidence, with the majority of cases occurring between June and December, peaking in August, October, and November. Increased temperature was found to be associated with LD incidence. In surface water, higher concentrations of manganese, iron, and strontium were positively associated with LD, while aluminum and orthophosphate showed a negative association. Intreatment plant water, higher concentrations of total organic carbon, aluminum, barium, and chlorine were positively associated with LD, while strontium, zinc, and orthophosphate showed a negative association. The results for orthophosphates and turbidity were inconclusive, indicating the need for further research.

Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are the main vectors of livestock diseases such as bluetongue (BT) which mainly affect sheep and cattle. In Spain, bluetongue virus (BTV) is transmitted by several Culicoides taxa, including Culicoides imicola, Obsoletus complex, Culicoides newsteadi and Culicoides pulicaris that vary in seasonality and distribution, affecting the distribution and dynamics of BT outbreaks. Path analysis is useful for separating direct and indirect, biotic and abiotic determinants of species' population performance and is ideal for understanding the sensitivity of adult Culicoides dynamics to multiple environmental drivers. Start, end of season and length of overwintering of adult Culicoides were analysed across 329 sites in Spain sampled from 2005 to 2010 during the National Entomosurveillance Program for BTV with path analysis, to determine the direct and indirect effects of land use, climate and host factor variables. Culicoides taxa had species-specific responses to environmental variables. While the seasonality of adult C. imicola was strongly affected by topography, temperature, cover of agro-forestry and sclerophyllous vegetation, rainfall, livestock density, photoperiod in autumn and the abundance of Culicoides females, Obsoletus complex species seasonality was affected by land-use variables such as cover of natural grassland and broad-leaved forest. Culicoides female abundance was the most explanatory variable for the seasonality of C. newsteadi, while C. pulicaris showed that temperature during winter and the photoperiod in November had a strong effect on the start of the season and the length of overwinter period of this species. These results indicate that the seasonal vector-free period (SVFP) in Spain will vary between competent vector taxa and geographic locations, dependent on the different responses of each taxa to environmental conditions.

The Indian rhinoceros or greater one-horned rhino (Rhinoceros unicornis) is listed as vulnerable by the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species and, therefore, captive individuals have been subject to the European Endangered Species Programme since 1990. Enhancement of welfare is key in ensuring the breeding success of this species in captivity. Salivary cortisol has been recently used to assess welfare of captive and free-ranging animals. Nevertheless, rhythms of cortisol secretion may fluctuate throughout the year and therefore, knowledge of the circannual pattern of cortisol secretion is essential to evaluate the physiological significance of seasonal variations of cortisol levels as an indicator of stress in animals. Here, we analyse monthly differences in cortisol secretion in two Indian rhinoceros. Saliva samples of two rhinoceros were collected and analysed by radioimmunoassay for the period of one year to determine cortisol concentrations. We found a seasonal pattern of salivary cortisol secretion. The highest cortisol concentrations were found in August and decreased until reaching a nadir in January. Cortisol concentrations in these two animals showed a correlation with temperature and visitor numbers but it is not possible to draw conclusions from this study as to whether the variation in cortisol was due to these or other factors.

Bergmann’s Rule describes an increase in the body size of endothermic animals with decreasing environmental temperatures. However, in ectothermic insects including moths, some of the few existing studies investigating size patterns along temperature gradients do not follow the Bergmann’s Cline. Intraspecific differences in moth sizes along spatiotemporal temperature gradients are unknown from the Palaeotropics, hindering general conclusions and understanding of the mechanism responsible. We measured intraspecific forewing size differences in 28 Afrotropical moth species sampled in 3 seasons along an elevational gradient on Mount Cameroon, West/Central Africa. Size increased significantly with elevation in 14 species but decreased significantly in 5 species. Additionally, we found significant inter-seasonal size differences in 21 species. Most of these variable species had longer forewings in the transition from the wet to dry season, which had caterpillars developing during the coldest part of the year. We conclude that environmental temperature affects the size of many Afrotropical moths, predominantly following prevailingly following Bergmann’s Cline. Nevertheless, the sizes of one-third of the species demonstrated a significant interaction between elevation and season. The responsible mechanisms can thus be assumed to be more complex than a simple response to ambient temperature.

Parents often weigh social, familial and cultural considerations when choosing their baby's name, but the name they choose could potentially be influenced by their physical or biotic environments. Here we examine whether the popularity of month and season names of girls covary geographically with environmental variables. In the continental USA, April, May and June (Autumn, Summer) are the most common month (season) names: April predominates in southern states (early springs), whereas June predominates in northern states (later springs). Whether April's popularity has increased with recent climate warming is ambiguous. Autumn is most popular in northern states, where autumn foliage is notably colourful, and in eastern states having high coverage of deciduous foliage. On a continental scale, Autumn was most popular in English-speaking countries with intense colouration of autumn foliage. These analyses are descriptive but indicate that climate and vegetation sometimes influence parental choice of their baby's name.