With persistent incidence, incomplete vaccination rates, confounding respiratory illnesses, and few therapeutic interventions available, COVID-19 continues to be a burden on the pediatric population. During a surge, it is difficult for hospitals to direct limited healthcare resources effectively. While the overwhelming majority of pediatric infections are mild, there have been life-threatening exceptions that illuminated the need to proactively identify pediatric patients at risk of severe COVID-19 and other respiratory infectious diseases. However, a nationwide capability for developing validated computational tools to identify pediatric patients at risk using real-world data does not exist.

HHS ASPR BARDA sought, through the power of competition in a challenge, to create computational models to address two clinically important questions using the National COVID Cohort Collaborative: (1) Of pediatric patients who test positive for COVID-19 in an outpatient setting, who are at risk for hospitalization? (2) Of pediatric patients who test positive for COVID-19 and are hospitalized, who are at risk for needing mechanical ventilation or cardiovascular interventions?

This challenge was the first, multi-agency, coordinated computational challenge carried out by the federal government as a response to a public health emergency. Fifty-five computational models were evaluated across both tasks and two winners and three honorable mentions were selected.

This challenge serves as a framework for how the government, research communities, and large data repositories can be brought together to source solutions when resources are strapped during a pandemic.

In sub-Saharan Africa, there are no validated screening tools for delirium in older adults, despite the known vulnerability of older people to delirium and the associated adverse outcomes. This study aimed to assess the effectiveness of a brief smartphone-based assessment of arousal and attention (DelApp) in the identification of delirium amongst older adults admitted to the medical department of a tertiary referral hospital in Northern Tanzania.

Consecutive admissions were screened using the DelApp during a larger study of delirium prevalence and risk factors. All participants subsequently underwent detailed clinical assessment for delirium by a research doctor. Delirium and dementia were identified against DSM-5 criteria by consensus.

Complete data for 66 individuals were collected of whom 15 (22.7%) had delirium, 24.5% had dementia without delirium, and 10.6% had delirium superimposed on dementia. Sensitivity and specificity of the DelApp for delirium were 0.87 and 0.62, respectively (AUROC 0.77) and 0.88 and 0.73 (AUROC 0.85) for major cognitive impairment (dementia and delirium combined). Lower DelApp score was associated with age, significant visual impairment (<6/60 acuity), illness severity, reduced arousal and DSM-5 delirium on univariable analysis, but on multivariable logistic regression only arousal remained significant.

In this setting, the DelApp performed well in identifying delirium and major cognitive impairment but did not differentiate delirium and dementia. Performance is likely to have been affected by confounders including uncorrected visual impairment and reduced level of arousal without delirium. Negative predictive value was nevertheless high, indicating excellent ‘rule out’ value in this setting.

Cognitive stimulation therapy (CST) is the only non-pharmacological, treatment for dementia recommended by the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, following multiple international trials demonstrating beneficial cognitive outcomes in people with mild-to-moderate dementia. However, there is limited understanding of whether treatment prognosis is influenced by sociodemographic and clinical variables (such as dementia subtype and gender), information which could inform clinical decision-making.

We describe the protocol for a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis assessing the prognostic factors related to CST. In publishing this protocol, we hope to increase the transparency of our work, and keep healthcare professionals aware of the latest evidence for effective CST.

A systematic review will be conducted with searches of the bibliographic databases Medline, EMBASE and PsycINFO, from inception to 7 February 2023. Studies will be included if they are clinical trials of CST, use the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale – Cognitive Subscale (gold-standard measure of cognition in dementia in clinical trials) and include participants with mild-to-moderate dementia. Following harmonisation of the data-set, mixed-effect models will be constructed to explore the relationship between the prognostic indicators and change scores post-treatment.

This is the first individual patient data meta-analyses on CST, and has the potential to significantly optimise patient care. Previous analyses suggest people with advanced dementia could benefit more from CST treatment. Given that CST is currently used post-diagnosis in people with mild-to-moderate dementia, the implications of confirming this finding, among identifying other prognostic indicators, are profound.

Studies show ethnic inequalities in rates of involuntary admission and types of clinical care (such as psychological therapies). However, few studies have investigated if there is a relationship between clinical care practices and ethnic inequalities in involuntary admission.

This study investigated the impact of ethnicity and clinical care on involuntary admission and the potential mediation effects of prior clinical care.

In this retrospective cohort study, we used data from the electronic records of the South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust and identified patients with a first hospital admission between January 2008 and May 2021. Logistic regression and mediation analyses were used to investigate the association between ethnicity and involuntary admission, and whether clinical care, in the 12 months preceding admission, mediates the association.

Compared with White British people, higher odds of involuntary admission were observed among 10 of 14 minority ethnic groups; with more than twice the odds observed among people of Asian Chinese, of Asian Bangladeshi and of any Black background. There were some ethnic differences in clinical care prior to admission, but these had a minimal impact on the inequalities in involuntary admission. More out-patient appointments and home treatment were associated with higher odds of involuntary admission, whereas psychological therapies and having a care plan were associated with reduced odds of involuntary admission.

Ethnic inequalities in involuntary admission persist after accounting for potential mediating effects of several types and frequencies of clinical care. Promoting access to psychological therapies and ensuring that care plans are in place may reduce involuntary admissions.

HIV-associated neurocognitive disorders (HANDs) are prevalent in older people living with HIV (PLWH) worldwide. HAND prevalence and incidence studies of the newly emergent population of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART)-treated older PLWH in sub-Saharan Africa are currently lacking. We aimed to estimate HAND prevalence and incidence using robust measures in stable, cART-treated older adults under long-term follow-up in Tanzania and report cognitive comorbidities.

Longitudinal study

A systematic sample of consenting HIV-positive adults aged ≥50 years attending routine clinical care at an HIV Care and Treatment Centre during March–May 2016 and followed up March–May 2017.

HAND by consensus panel Frascati criteria based on detailed locally normed low-literacy neuropsychological battery, structured neuropsychiatric clinical assessment, and collateral history. Demographic and etiological factors by self-report and clinical records.

In this cohort (n = 253, 72.3% female, median age 57), HAND prevalence was 47.0% (95% CI 40.9–53.2, n = 119) despite well-managed HIV disease (Mn CD4 516 (98-1719), 95.5% on cART). Of these, 64 (25.3%) were asymptomatic neurocognitive impairment, 46 (18.2%) mild neurocognitive disorder, and 9 (3.6%) HIV-associated dementia. One-year incidence was high (37.2%, 95% CI 25.9 to 51.8), but some reversibility (17.6%, 95% CI 10.0–28.6 n = 16) was observed.

HAND appear highly prevalent in older PLWH in this setting, where demographic profile differs markedly to high-income cohorts, and comorbidities are frequent. Incidence and reversibility also appear high. Future studies should focus on etiologies and potentially reversible factors in this setting.

The adult population of repaired tetralogy of Fallot is increasing and at risk of pre-mature death and arrhythmia. This study evaluates risk factors for adverse outcome and the effect of pulmonary valve replacement within a national cohort.

A retrospective cohort study of 341 adult repaired tetralogy of Fallot (16–72 years) managed through a single national service was undertaken incorporating over 1200 patient-years of follow-up. Demographics, cardiopulmonary exercise testing, cardiac magnetic resonance, reintervention (including pulmonary valve replacement), and clinical events were analysed. The influence of these parameters on a primary outcome (death or arrhythmia) was evaluated.

Compared with an age-/gender-matched population, patients experienced a reduced survival, particularly males over 55 years (standardised mortality ratio : 6.12, 95% CI: 1.64–15.66, p = 0.004). Cox proportional hazards modelling identified increased indexed right ventricle (RV) end-diastolic volume (hazard ratio (HR): 2.86, 95% CI: 1.4–5.85, p = 0.004) and female gender (HR (male): 0.37, 95% CI: 0.14–0.98, p = 0.045) to be predictors significantly associated with the primary outcome. Pulmonary valve replacement undertaken at indexed RV end-diastolic volume = 145 ml/m2 reduced RV volumes and QRS duration but did not improve cardiopulmonary exercise testing nor NYHA class. Pulmonary valve replacement during cohort period was associated with increased risk of primary outcome (HR: 2.82, 95% CI: 1.36–5.86, p = 0.005).

Although the majority of adult tetralogy of Fallot were asymptomatic in NYHA 1, cardiopulmonary exercise testing revealed important deficits. Tetralogy of Fallot survival was reduced compared to the general population. Female gender and increasing RV end-diastolic volume predicted adverse events. Pulmonary valve replacement reduced RV volumes and QRS duration but did not improve primary outcome.

Common mental disorders (CMDs), particularly depression, are major contributors to the global mental health burden. South Asia, while diverse, has cultural, social, and economic challenges, which are common across the region, not least an aging population. This creates an imperative to better understand how CMD affects older people in this context, which relies on valid and culturally appropriate screening and research tools. This review aims to scope the availability of CMD screening tools for older people in South Asia. As a secondary aim, this review will summarize the use of these tools in epidemiology, and the extent to which they have been validated or adapted for this population.

A scoping review was performed, following PRISMA guidelines. The search strategy was developed iteratively in Medline and translated to Embase, PsychInfo, Scopus, and Web of Science. Data were extracted from papers in which a tool was used to identify CMD in a South Asian older population (50+), including validation, adaptation, and use in epidemiology. Validation studies meeting the criteria were critically appraised using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies – version 2 (QUADAS-2) tool.

Of the 4694 papers identified, 176 met the selection criteria at full-text screening as relevant examples of diagnostic or screening tool use. There were 15 tool validation studies, which were critically appraised. Of these, 10 were appropriate to evaluate as diagnostic tests. All of these tools assessed for depression. Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS)-based tools were predominant with variable diagnostic accuracy across different settings. Methodological issues were substantial based on the QUADAS-2 criteria. In the epidemiological studies identified (n = 160), depression alone was assessed for 82% of the studies. Tools lacking cultural validation were commonly used (43%).

This review identifies a number of current research gaps including a need for culturally relevant validation studies, and attention to other CMDs such as anxiety.

Depression in older people is likely to become a growing global health problem with aging populations. Significant cultural variation exists in beliefs about depression (terminology, symptomatology, and treatments) but data from sub-Saharan Africa are minimal. Low-resource interventions for depression have been effective in low-income settings but cannot be utilized without accurate diagnosis. This study aimed to achieve a shared understanding of depression in Tanzania in older people.

Using a qualitative design, focus groups were conducted with participants aged 60 and over. Participants from rural villages of Kilimanjaro, Tanzania, were selected via randomized sampling using census data. Topic guides were developed including locally developed case vignettes. Transcripts were translated into English from Swahili and thematic analysis conducted.

Ten focus groups were held with 81 participants. Three main themes were developed: a) conceptualization of depression by older people and differentiation from other related conditions (“too many thoughts,” cognitive symptoms, affective and biological symptoms, wish to die, somatic symptoms, and its difference to other concepts); b) the causes of depression (inability to work, loss of physical strength and independence, lack of resources, family difficulties, chronic disease); c) management of depression (love and comfort, advice, spiritual support, providing help, medical help).

This research expands our understanding of how depression presents in older Tanzanians and provides information about lay beliefs regarding causes and management options. This may allow development of culturally specific screening tools for depression that, in turn, increase diagnosis rates, support accurate diagnosis, improve service use, and reduce stigma.