Psychosis is a major mental illness with first onset in young adults. The prognosis is poor in around half of the people affected, and difficult to predict. The few tools available to predict prognosis have major weaknesses which limit their use in clinical practice. We aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model of symptom non-remission in first-episode psychosis.

Our development cohort consisted of 1027 patients with first-episode psychosis recruited between 2005 to 2010 from 14 early intervention services across the National Health Service in England. Our validation cohort consisted of 399 patients with first-episode psychosis recruited between 2006 to 2009 from a further 11 English early intervention services. The one-year non-remission rate was 52% and 54% in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. Multivariable logistic regression was used to develop a risk prediction model for non-remission, which was externally validated.

The prediction model showed good discrimination (C-statistic of 0.74 (0.72, 0.76) and adequate calibration with intercept alpha of 0.13 (0.03, 0.23) and slope beta of 0.99 (0.87, 1.12). Our model improved the net-benefit by 16% at a risk threshold of 50%, equivalent to 16 more detected non-remitted first-episode psychosis individuals per 100 without incorrectly classifying remitted cases.

Once prospectively validated, our first episode psychosis prediction model could help identify patients at increased risk of non-remission at initial clinical contact.

None.

Reasons for the increased prevalence of cigarette smoking in schizophrenia are unclear. Studies assessing clinical symptoms have sampled heterogeneous populations, with discrepant findings.

To examine the relationship between clinical features, social adjustment and nicotine dependence in a geographically defined population of people with schizophrenia.

Cross-sectional clinical study of 131 people with schizophrenia in Nithsdale, Scotland.

Smokers were younger, mostly males and three times more likely to be unemployed. Those with severe nicotine dependence had greater scores on the positive subscale of the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS), and were prescribed higher doses of antipsychotic. Those with mild–moderate dependence had greater scores on the PANSS negative subscale. Greater symptom severity was associated with poorer social adjustment. Psychopathology and social adjustment were similar in quitters and never-smokers.

Our findings indicate an association between nicotine dependence, clinical symptoms and social adjustment in schizophrenia. Although causal links cannot be inferred, identifying the relationship between nicotine dependence and psychopathology may have some value in the management of smoking in schizophrenia. Further longitudinal studies are required to explore this relationship.