Evidence-based conservation can be hindered by limited field data, but historical archives have the potential to provide unique insights into conservation-relevant parameters, such as identification of suitable habitat for threatened species. The Manumea or Tooth-billed Pigeon Didunculus strigirostris has declined on Samoa and only a tiny remnant population still persists, and a key first step for conservation is to locate surviving birds. Numerous Manumea records are available from the nineteenth century onwards, and we used historical and modern records to generate a series of species distribution models to predict the distribution of suitable habitat across Samoa to guide new field searches. Manumea distribution is closely associated with forest cover or its proxies. Preferred Manumea food plants are suggested to be low-elevation trees, but elevation provides relatively low percentage contribution in most models, thus not excluding the possibility that Manumea might occur at high elevations. There is also little evidence for elevational change in records over the past century. Models based on visual versus acoustic records exhibit differences in predicted habitat suitability, suggesting that some purported acoustic records might not actually represent Manumea calls. Field searches should target areas representing high habitat suitability across all models, notably the forested central axis of Upolu.

We consider the debut of a new monetary instrument, central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). Drawing on examples from monetary history, we argue that a successful monetary transformation must combine microeconomic efficiency with macroeconomic credibility. A paradoxical feature of these transformations is that success in the micro dimension can encourage macro failure. Overcoming this paradox may require politically uncomfortable compromises. We propose that such compromises will be necessary for the success of CBDCs.

Background: Early identification of patients colonized with MDROs can help healthcare facilities improve infection control and treatment. We evaluated whether a model previously validated to predict carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE) carriage on hospital admission (area under the curve [AUC]=0.86, Lin et al. OFID 2019) would generalize to predict a patient’s likelihood of CRE and non-CRE MDRO colonization at the time of medical intensive care unit (MICU) admission. Methods: We analyzed data collected previously in a retrospective observational cohort study of patients admitted to Rush University Medical Center’s MICU from 1/2017-1/2018 and screened within the first two days for rectal MDRO colonization. Organisms of interest included CRE, carbapenem-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa (CRPA), vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE), and third-generation cephalosporin-resistant Enterobacterales (3GCR-E). Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) nasal colonization at admission was determined by routine clinical screening. Each patient’s first MICU admission during the study period was linked to Illinois’ hospital discharge database and assigned a CRE colonization risk probability using the existing model. Model covariates were age, and during the prior 365 days, number of short-term acute care hospitalizations (STACH) and mean STACH length of stay, number of long-term acute care hospitalizations (LTACH) and mean LTACH length of stay, prior hospital admission with an ICD-10 diagnosis code indicating bacterial infection, and current admission to LTACH. Predictive value of the model was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Results: We analyzed 1237 MICU admissions. MDRO admission prevalence is shown in the Table. The model performed well to predict carriage of healthcare-associated MDROs, including CRE, CRPA, composite CR-MDROs (CRE & CRPA), and VRE. However, the model performed poorly for MDROs with known community reservoirs, including 3GCR-E and MRSA (Table). In general, MDRO admission prevalence increased in parallel with predicted CRE colonization risk (Figure). The number needed to screen (NNS) to detect one healthcare-associated MDRO carrier was inversely related to the CRE colonization risk score. For example, NNS in the total cohort compared to those with CRE risk score of >0.5% was: CRE 111 vs 32 patients, CRPA 333 vs 42 patients, composite CR-MDRO 83 vs 18 patients, and VRE 12 vs 4 patients. However, higher CRE risk score cutoff was inversely related to screening sensitivity. Conclusion: A prediction model using prior healthcare exposure information successfully discriminated patients likely to harbor healthcare-associated MDROs upon MICU admission. Prediction scores generated by a public-health accessible database could be used to target screening/isolation or enact protective measures for high-risk patients.

Background: External comparisons of antimicrobial use (AU) may be more informative if adjusted for encounter characteristics. Optimal methods to define input variables for encounter-level risk-adjustment models of AU are not established. Methods: This retrospective analysis of electronic health record data included 50 US hospitals in 2020-2021. We used NHSN definitions for all antibacterials days of therapy (DOT), including adult and pediatric encounters with at least 1 day present in inpatient locations. We assessed 4 methods to define input variables: 1) diagnosis-related group (DRG) categories by Yu et al., 2) adjudicated Elixhauser comorbidity categories by Goodman et al., 3) all Clinical Classification Software Refined (CCSR) diagnosis and procedure categories, and 4) adjudicated CCSR categories where codes not appropriate for AU risk-adjustment were excluded by expert consensus, requiring review of 867 codes over 4 months to attain consensus. Data were split randomly, stratified by bed size as follows: 1) training dataset including two-thirds of encounters among two-thirds of hospitals; 2) internal testing set including one-third of encounters within training hospitals, and 3) external testing set including the remaining one-third of hospitals. We used a gradient-boosted machine (GBM) tree-based model and two-staged approach to first identify encounters with zero DOT, then estimate DOT among those with >0.5 probability of receiving antibiotics. Accuracy was assessed using mean absolute error (MAE) in testing datasets. Correlation plots compared model estimates and observed DOT among testing datasets. The top 20 most influential variables were defined using modeled variable importance. Results: Our datasets included 629,445 training, 314,971 internal testing, and 419,109 external testing encounters. Demographic data included 41% male, 59% non-Hispanic White, 25% non-Hispanic Black, 9% Hispanic, and 5% pediatric encounters. DRG was missing in 29% of encounters. MAE was lower in pediatrics as compared to adults, and lowest for models incorporating CCSR inputs (Figure 1). Performance in internal and external testing was similar, though Goodman/Elixhauser variable strategies were less accurate in external testing and underestimated long DOT outliers (Figure 2). Agnostic and adjudicated CCSR model estimates were highly correlated; their influential variables lists were similar (Figure 3). Conclusion: Larger numbers of CCSR diagnosis and procedure inputs improved risk-adjustment model accuracy compared with prior strategies. Variable importance and accuracy were similar for agnostic and adjudicated approaches. However, maintaining adjudications by experts would require significant time and potentially introduce personal bias. If findings are confirmed, the need for expert adjudication of input variables should be reconsidered.

Disclosure: Elizabeth Dodds Ashley: Advisor- HealthTrackRx. David J Weber: Consultant on vaccines: Pfizer; DSMB chair: GSK; Consultant on disinfection: BD, GAMA, PDI, Germitec

The authors report on ancient DNA data from two human skeletons buried within the chancel of the 1608–1616 church at the North American colonial settlement of Jamestown, Virginia. Available archaeological, osteological and documentary evidence suggest that these individuals are Sir Ferdinando Wenman and Captain William West, kinsmen of the colony's first Governor, Thomas West, Third Baron De La Warr. Genomic analyses of the skeletons identify unexpected maternal relatedness as both carried the mitochondrial haplogroup H10e. In this unusual case, aDNA prompted further historical research that led to the discovery of illegitimacy in the West family, an aspect of identity omitted, likely intentionally, from genealogical records.

How was trust created and reinforced between the inhabitants of medieval and early modern cities? And how did the social foundations of trusting relationships change over time? Current research highlights the role of kinship, neighbourhood, and associations, particularly guilds, in creating ‘relationships of trust’ and social capital in the face of high levels of migration, mortality, and economic volatility, but tells us little about their relative importance or how they developed. We uncover a profound shift in the contribution of family and guilds to trust networks among the middling and elite of one of Europe's major cities, London, over three centuries, from the 1330s to the 1680s. We examine almost 15,000 networks of sureties created to secure orphans’ inheritances to measure the presence of trusting relationships connected by guild membership, family, and place. We uncover a profound increase in the role of kinship – a re-embedding of trust within the family – and a decline of the importance of shared guild membership in connecting Londoners who secured orphans’ inheritances together. These developments indicate a profound transformation in the social fabric of urban society.

Among Líĺwat people of the Interior Plateau of British Columbia, an oral tradition relays how early ancestors used to ascend Qẃelqẃelústen, or Mount Meager. The account maintains that those climbers could see the ocean, which is not the case today, because the mountain is surrounded by many other high peaks, and the Strait of Georgia is several mountain ridges to the west. However, the mountain is an active and volatile volcano, which last erupted circa 2360 cal BP. It is also the site of the largest landslide in Canadian history, which occurred in 2010. Given that it had been a high, glacier-capped mountain throughout the Holocene, much like other volcanoes along the coastal range, we surmise that a climber may have reasonably been afforded a view of the ocean from its prior heights. We conducted viewshed analyses of the potential mountain height prior to its eruption and determined that one could indeed view the ocean if the mountain were at least 950 m higher than it is today. This aligns with the oral tradition, indicating that it may be over 2,400 years old, and plausibly in the range of 4,000 to 9,000 years old when the mountain may have been at such a height.

Inhibitory control plays an important role in children’s cognitive and socioemotional development, including their psychopathology. It has been established that contextual factors such as socioeconomic status (SES) and parents’ psychopathology are associated with children’s inhibitory control. However, the relations between the neural correlates of inhibitory control and contextual factors have been rarely examined in longitudinal studies. In the present study, we used both event-related potential (ERP) components and time-frequency measures of inhibitory control to evaluate the neural pathways between contextual factors, including prenatal SES and maternal psychopathology, and children’s behavioral and emotional problems in a large sample of children (N = 560; 51.75% females; Mage = 7.13 years; Rangeage = 4–11 years). Results showed that theta power, which was positively predicted by prenatal SES and was negatively related to children’s externalizing problems, mediated the longitudinal and negative relation between them. ERP amplitudes and latencies did not mediate the longitudinal association between prenatal risk factors (i.e., prenatal SES and maternal psychopathology) and children’s internalizing and externalizing problems. Our findings increase our understanding of the neural pathways linking early risk factors to children’s psychopathology.