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Personality traits (e.g. neuroticism) and the social environment predict risk for internalizing disorders and suicidal behavior. Studying these characteristics together and prospectively within a population confronted with high stressor exposure (e.g. U.S. Army soldiers) has not been done, yet could uncover unique and interactive predictive effects that may inform prevention and early intervention efforts.
Five broad personality traits and social network size were assessed via self-administered questionnaires among experienced soldiers preparing for deployment (N = 4645) and new soldiers reporting for basic training (N = 6216). Predictive models examined associations of baseline personality and social network variables with recent distress disorders or suicidal behaviors assessed 3- and 9-months post-deployment and approximately 5 years following enlistment.
Among the personality traits, elevated neuroticism was consistently associated with increased mental health risk following deployment. Small social networks were also associated with increased mental health risk following deployment, beyond the variance accounted for by personality. Limited support was found for social network size moderating the association between personality and mental health outcomes. Small social networks also predicted distress disorders and suicidal behavior 5 years following enlistment, whereas unique effects of personality traits on these more distal outcomes were rare.
Heightened neuroticism and small social networks predict a greater risk for negative mental health sequelae, especially following deployment. Social ties may mitigate adverse impacts of personality traits on psychopathology in some contexts. Early identification and targeted intervention for these distinct, modifiable factors may decrease the risk of distress disorders and suicidal behavior.
Among outpatients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) due to the severe acute respiratory coronavirus virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) δ (delta) variant who did and did not receive 2 vaccine doses at 7 days after symptom onset, there was no difference in viral shedding (cycle threshold difference 0.59, 95% CI, −4.68 to 3.50; P = .77) with SARS-CoV-2 cultured from 2 (7%) of 28 and 1 (4%) of 26 outpatients, respectively.
New occurrences of flask-shaped and envelope-bearing microfossils, including the predominantly Cambrian taxon Granomarginata, are reported from new localities, as well as from earlier in time (Ediacaran) than previously known. The stratigraphic range of Granomarginata extends into the Cambrian System, where it had a cosmopolitan distribution. This newly reported Ediacaran record includes areas from Norway (Baltica), Newfoundland (Avalonia) and Namibia (adjacent to the Kalahari Craton), and puts the oldest global occurrence of Granomarginata in the Indreelva Member (< 563 Ma) of the Stáhpogieddi Formation on the Digermulen Peninsula, Arctic Norway. Although Granomarginata is rare within the assemblage, these new occurrences together with previously reported occurrences from India and Poland, suggest a potentially widespread palaeogeographic distribution of Granomarginata through the middle–late Ediacaran interval. A new flask-shaped microfossil Lagoenaforma collaris gen. et sp. nov. is also reported in horizons containing Granomarginata from the Stáhpogieddi Formation in Norway and the Dabis Formation in Namibia, and flask-shaped fossils are also found in the Gibbett Hill Formation in Newfoundland. The Granomarginata–Lagoenaforma association, in addition to a low-diversity organic-walled microfossil assemblage, occurs in the strata postdating the Shuram carbon isotope excursion, and may eventually be of use in terminal Ediacaran biostratigraphy. These older occurrences of Granomarginata add to a growing record of body fossil taxa spanning the Ediacaran–Cambrian boundary.
Electroencephalographic (EEG) abnormalities are greater in mild cognitive impairment (MCI) with Lewy bodies (MCI-LB) than in MCI due to Alzheimer’s disease (MCI-AD) and may anticipate the onset of dementia. We aimed to assess whether quantitative EEG (qEEG) slowing would predict a higher annual hazard of dementia in MCI across these etiologies. MCI patients (n = 92) and healthy comparators (n = 31) provided qEEG recording and underwent longitudinal clinical and cognitive follow-up. Associations between qEEG slowing, measured by increased theta/alpha ratio, and clinical progression from MCI to dementia were estimated with a multistate transition model to account for death as a competing risk, while controlling for age, cognitive function, and etiology classified by an expert consensus panel.
Over a mean follow-up of 1.5 years (SD = 0.5), 14 cases of incident dementia and 5 deaths were observed. Increased theta/alpha ratio on qEEG was associated with increased annual hazard of dementia (hazard ratio = 1.84, 95% CI: 1.01–3.35). This extends previous findings that MCI-LB features early functional changes, showing that qEEG slowing may anticipate the onset of dementia in prospectively identified MCI.
Previous results have been mixed regarding the role of the apolipoprotein E e4 (APOE e4) allele in later-life depression: some studies note that carriers experience greater symptoms and increased risk while others find no such association. However, there are few prospective, population-based studies of the APOE e4-depression association and fewer that examine depressive symptom trajectory and depression risk longitudinally. We examined the association between APOE e4 allele status and longitudinal change in depressive symptoms and depression risk in later-life, over a 12-year follow-up period.
We used data from 690 participants of the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936 who took part in the Scottish Mental Survey 1947 (aged 11) and were followed-up in later-life over five waves from 2004 to 2019 (aged 70–82). We used APOE e4 allele status to predict longitudinal change in depressive symptom scores and risk of depression (defined by a symptom score threshold or use of depression-related medication). Models were adjusted for sex, childhood cognitive ability, childhood social class, education, adult social class, smoking status and functional limitations at baseline.
Depressive symptom scores increased with age. Once adjusted for covariates, APOE e4 allele status did not significantly predict symptom score trajectories or depression risk. Greater functional limitations at baseline significantly predicted poorer symptom score trajectories and increased depression risk (defined by medications). APOE e4 allele status did not significantly moderate the contribution of sex, education or functional limitations.
There was no evidence that APOE e4 carriers experience an increased risk for later-life depression.
Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) may gradually worsen to dementia, but often remains stable for extended periods of time. Little is known about the predictors of decline to help explain this variation. We aimed to explore whether this heterogeneous course of MCI may be predicted by the presence of Lewy body (LB) symptoms in a prospectively-recruited longitudinal cohort of MCI with Lewy bodies (MCI-LB) and Alzheimer's disease (MCI-AD).
A prospective cohort (n = 76) aged ⩾60 years underwent detailed assessment after recent MCI diagnosis, and were followed up annually with repeated neuropsychological testing and clinical review of cognitive status and LB symptoms. Latent class mixture modelling identified data-driven sub-groups with distinct trajectories of global cognitive function.
Three distinct trajectories were identified in the full cohort: slow/stable progression (46%), intermediate progressive decline (41%) and a small group with a much faster decline (13%). The presence of LB symptomology, and visual hallucinations in particular, predicted decline v. a stable cognitive trajectory. With time zeroed on study end (death, dementia or withdrawal) where available (n = 39), the same subgroups were identified. Adjustment for baseline functioning obscured the presence of any latent classes, suggesting that baseline function is an important parameter in prospective decline.
These results highlight some potential signals for impending decline in MCI; poorer baseline function and the presence of probable LB symptoms – particularly visual hallucinations. Identifying people with a rapid decline is important but our findings are preliminary given the modest cohort size.
A physical oceanographic, geophysical and marine geological survey of Edward VIII Gulf, Kemp Coast, collected data from conductivity–temperature–depth casts, multi-beam bathymetric swath mapping and 3.5 kHz sub-bottom surveying. Modified circumpolar deep water (mCDW) is observed in Edward VIII Gulf, as well as notable bathymetric features including mega-scale glacial lineations and a 1750 m-deep trough. Sedimentological, geochemical, rock-magnetic and micropalaeontological analysis of two kasten cores document regional palaeoclimate and palaeo-oceanographic conditions over the past 8000 years, with a warm period occurring from c. 8 to 4 ka and a shift to cooler conditions beginning at c. 4 ka and persisting until at least 0.9 ka. Sediment packages > 40 m thick within deep troughs in Edward VIII Gulf present potential targets for higher-resolution Holocene and deglacial climate studies. Despite the presence of mCDW on the shelf, inland bed topography consisting of highland terrain suggests the likelihood of relative stability of this sector of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet.
To describe the relationship between adherence to distinct dietary patterns and nutrition literacy.
We identified distinct dietary patterns using principal covariates regression (PCovR) and principal components analysis (PCA) from the Diet History Questionnaire II. Nutrition literacy was assessed using the Nutrition Literacy Assessment Instrument (NLit). Cross-sectional relationships between dietary pattern adherence and global and domain-specific NLit scores were tested by multiple linear regression. Mean differences in diet pattern adherence among three predefined nutrition literacy performance categories were tested by ANOVA.
Metropolitan Kansas City, USA.
Adults (n 386) with at least one of four diet-related diseases.
Three diet patterns of interest were derived: a PCovR prudent pattern and PCA-derived Western and Mediterranean patterns. After controlling for age, sex, BMI, race, household income, education level and diabetes status, PCovR prudent pattern adherence positively related to global NLit score (P < 0·001, β = 0·36), indicating more intake of prudent diet foods with improved nutrition literacy. Validating the PCovR findings, PCA Western pattern adherence inversely related to global NLit (P = 0·003, β = −0·13) while PCA Mediterranean pattern positively related to global NLit (P = 0·02, β = 0·12). Using predefined cut points, those with poor nutrition literacy consumed more foods associated with the Western diet (fried foods, sugar-sweetened beverages, red meat, processed foods) while those with good nutrition literacy consumed more foods associated with prudent and Mediterranean diets (vegetables, olive oil, nuts).
Nutrition literacy predicted adherence to healthy/unhealthy diet patterns. These findings warrant future research to determine if improving nutrition literacy effectively improves eating patterns.
Lithium is widely prescribed, but the timing of key effects remains uncertain. The timing of onset of its relapse prevention effects is clarified by placebo-controlled randomised trials (3 studies, n = 1120). Lithium reduced relapse into any mood episode over the first 2 weeks of treatment (hazard ratio 0.40, 95% CI 0.16–0.97). Fewer manic relapses were evident within the first 4 weeks, however, early effects on depressive relapse were not demonstrated. There is an early onset of lithium relapse prevention effects in bipolar disorder, particularly against manic relapse. Full effects against depressive relapse may develop over a longer period.
Declaration of interest
M.J.T. reports personal fees from Sunovion, Otsuka, Lundbeck, outside the submitted work.
Introduction: Smoking is one of the most important risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) are becoming increasingly popular. However, little is known regarding their patterns of use in patients with established CVD.
Aims: We aimed to assess the perceptions and patterns of use of e-cigarettes in patients presenting to a vascular clinic.
Methods: We performed a qualitative study to identify perceptions and beliefs about e-cigarettes. Semi-structured interviews of consecutive patients consenting to participate were performed over five-months. Individuals were recruited from a vascular surgery outpatient clinic. Initial interviews were based on a questionnaire. Further structured interviews were conducted with patients currently using e-cigarettes, which were transcribed and analysed to assess perceptions and patterns of use.
Results/Findings: Four overarching themes emerged: attraction to e-cigarettes as a harm reduction/smoking cessation strategy; uncertainty regarding the risks of e-cigarettes; use of various types of smoking cessation strategies; dual use and often complete relapse to tobacco products.
Conclusions: Patients with established CVD view e-cigarettes as a means of smoking cessation; however, many relapse to tobacco products or use both simultaneously. Further research is necessary regarding the role of e-cigarettes in smoking cessation in this high-risk group.
Recent modelling estimates up to two-thirds of new HIV infections among men who have sex with men occur within partnerships, indicating the importance of dyadic HIV prevention efforts. Although new interventions are available to promote dyadic health-enhancing behaviours, minimal research has examined what factors influence partners’ mutual engagement in these behaviours, a critical component of intervention success. Actor-partner interdependence modelling was used to examine associations between relationship characteristics and several dyadic outcomes theorised as antecedents to health-enhancing behaviours: planning and decision making, communication, and joint effort. Among 270 male-male partnerships, relationship satisfaction was significantly associated with all three outcomes for actors (p = .02, .02, .06 respectively). Latino men reported poorer planning and decision making (actor p = .032) and communication (partner p = .044). Alcohol use was significantly and negatively associated with all outcomes except actors’ planning and decision making (actors: p = .11, .038, .004 respectively; partners: p = .03, .056, .02 respectively). Having a sexual agreement was significantly associated with actors’ planning and decision making (p = .007) and communication (p = .008). Focusing on interactions between partners produces a more comprehensive understanding of male couples’ ability to engage in health-enhancing behaviours. This knowledge further identifies new and important foci for the tailoring of dyadic HIV prevention and care interventions.
The Taipan galaxy survey (hereafter simply ‘Taipan’) is a multi-object spectroscopic survey starting in 2017 that will cover 2π steradians over the southern sky (δ ≲ 10°, |b| ≳ 10°), and obtain optical spectra for about two million galaxies out to z < 0.4. Taipan will use the newly refurbished 1.2-m UK Schmidt Telescope at Siding Spring Observatory with the new TAIPAN instrument, which includes an innovative ‘Starbugs’ positioning system capable of rapidly and simultaneously deploying up to 150 spectroscopic fibres (and up to 300 with a proposed upgrade) over the 6° diameter focal plane, and a purpose-built spectrograph operating in the range from 370 to 870 nm with resolving power R ≳ 2000. The main scientific goals of Taipan are (i) to measure the distance scale of the Universe (primarily governed by the local expansion rate, H0) to 1% precision, and the growth rate of structure to 5%; (ii) to make the most extensive map yet constructed of the total mass distribution and motions in the local Universe, using peculiar velocities based on improved Fundamental Plane distances, which will enable sensitive tests of gravitational physics; and (iii) to deliver a legacy sample of low-redshift galaxies as a unique laboratory for studying galaxy evolution as a function of dark matter halo and stellar mass and environment. The final survey, which will be completed within 5 yrs, will consist of a complete magnitude-limited sample (i ⩽ 17) of about 1.2 × 106 galaxies supplemented by an extension to higher redshifts and fainter magnitudes (i ⩽ 18.1) of a luminous red galaxy sample of about 0.8 × 106 galaxies. Observations and data processing will be carried out remotely and in a fully automated way, using a purpose-built automated ‘virtual observer’ software and an automated data reduction pipeline. The Taipan survey is deliberately designed to maximise its legacy value by complementing and enhancing current and planned surveys of the southern sky at wavelengths from the optical to the radio; it will become the primary redshift and optical spectroscopic reference catalogue for the local extragalactic Universe in the southern sky for the coming decade.
While the North American archaeological record signals the presence of early humans along the northeastern Pacific coast by the Late Pleistocene, we know little about the technological systems employed by these coastally oriented colonizing groups. We here report the discovery of the earliest unequivocal evidence for the use and manufacture of shell fishhooks in the western hemisphere. Four single-piece shell fishhooks dating to the terminal Pleistocene/early Holocene transition (between ~11,300 and 10,700 cal B.P.) have been excavated on Isla Cedros, Baja California, Mexico. One hook is directly dated at 9495 ± 25 B.P. with a marine reservoir–corrected age of 11,165–9185 cal B.P. Radiocarbon ages associated with three other shell fishhooks range between 8900 ± 25 B.P. and 10,415 ± 25 B.P, while median ages for the earliest contexts confirm occupation of the island by at least 12,600–12,000 cal B.P. The stratigraphic levels from which the fishhooks were recovered contained a diverse assemblage of fish remains, including deepwater species, indicative of boat use. Thus, some of the earliest known inhabitants of the Pacific coast of the Americas employed shell hook and line technology for offshore marine fishing at least by the Pleistocene-Holocene transition, if not earlier.
The papers in this symposium agree on several points. In this article, we sort through some remaining areas of disagreement and discuss some of the practical issues of time series modeling we think deserve further explanation. In particular, we have five points: (1) clarifying our stance on the general error correction model in light of the comments in this issue; (2) clarifying equation balance and discussing how bounded series affects our thinking about stationarity, balance, and modeling choices; (3) answering lingering questions about our Monte Carlo simulations and exploring potential problems in the inferences drawn from long-run multipliers; (4) reviewing and defending fractional integration methods in light of the questions raised in this symposium and elsewhere; and (5) providing a short practical guide to estimating a multivariate autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average model with or without an error correction term.
While traditionally considered for non-stationary and cointegrated data, DeBoef and Keele suggest applying a General Error Correction Model (GECM) to stationary data with or without cointegration. The GECM has since become extremely popular in political science but practitioners have confused essential points. For one, the model is treated as perfectly flexible when, in fact, the opposite is true. Time series of various orders of integration–stationary, non-stationary, explosive, near- and fractionally integrated–should not be analyzed together but researchers consistently make this mistake. That is, without equation balance the model is misspecified and hypothesis tests and long-run-multipliers are unreliable. Another problem is that the error correction term's sampling distribution moves dramatically depending upon the order of integration, sample size, number of covariates, and the boundedness of Yt. This means that practitioners are likely to overstate evidence of error correction, especially when using a traditional t-test. We evaluate common GECM practices with six types of data, 746 simulations, and five paper replications.