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Binary logit regression models were used to estimate factors affecting adoption of recommended management practices. Variables analyzed include aspects of farm structure, human capital, farm objectives, and production system employed by the producer. Results reveal that operation size and dependency upon income from the stocker operation, in particular, influence the adoption of recommended practices. Older producers and those pursuing a year-round production strategy were found to lag in adoption.
Most technology adoption research has focused on crops. Primary data were used to determine differences in management practices among two groups of Oklahoma cow-calf producers based on herd size and cattle income dependence. Significant differences were noted between two groups of producers (smaller operations with less dependence on cattle versus larger with more dependence on cattle) in 79% of the management practices examined. Logit models determined factors influencing the probability of adopting 17 recommended practices. Important factors included the firm goal to choose practices that reduce labor, income dependence on cattle, human capital, and size of operation.
Preconditioning calf programs, while not new, are becoming more prevalent. They provide benefits to cow-calf producers while adding value for feeder cattle buyers. However, questions remain regarding the economic costs and returns of such programs. A model was estimated with data from three consecutive-day sales, to determine the value that buyers place on preconditioning programs and related feeder cattle traits. Our results indicate that price premiums, although evident, appear to be insufficient by themselves to cover the marginal costs of preconditioning.
Domestic opposition to violent, escalatory national policies during international crises has long been considered an important factor influencing the foreign policy behavior of nations. Yet the explicit theoretical linkages between domestic opposition and crisis choices have not been investigated. To provide these linkages, we set out an extensive form game of sequential decisions leading to the various consequences of crises together with their attendant costs and benefits. Our findings indicate that an antagonist's beliefs about domestic opposition are not particularly effective levers to manipulate in crises when a peaceful resolution is the goal.
Systemic theorists emphasize the interplay of the distribution of power, the number of poles, and their tightness in predicting the occurrence of major-power war. The authors link individual-level incentives to these systemic constraints as factors that might affect the likelihood of war. They believe that their model specification is more comprehensive than any prior effort to evaluate the impact of structural attributes on the risk of major-power war. Empirical results from the individual-level prespective are encouraging when one examines European crises from 1816 to 1965, but there is no evidence that decision makers were significantly constrained by variations in the structural attributes. Neither the distribution of power nor the number or tightness of poles appears to influence the risk of war.
The appropriate model of international conflict and war has been much discussed in recent years, and considerable progress has been made in modeling. Nevertheless the assumptions, conditions, and specifications for international conflict models remain eminently debatable. In the December 1986 issue of this Review, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and David Lalman presented a generalized expected utility model of international conflict. Here Seif Hussein takes issue with their model in various particulars, aiming to perfect and strengthen the model. Bueno de Mesquita and Lalman respond.
A new specification of the expected utility model of international conflict places expected utilities within a polar coordinate system; treats third-party choices in a manner more consistent with classical forms; estimates the expected utilities derived from not challenging existing policies; more fully represents the expected costs of conflict; and normalizes expected utilities regardless of system size. By assuming that the probability of escalation of a dispute increases monotonically with leaders' expectations of gain, we derive continuous functions for the probabilities of war, intervention, violence, and peace. The revised theory significantly improves our ability to discriminate between violent and nonviolent disputes and between violent disputes that escalated to warfare and those that did not in Europe between 1816 and 1970.
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