A model equation is derived for calculating transformation and propagation of Stokes waves. With the assumption that the water depth is slowly varying, the model equation, which is a nonlinear Schrödinger equation with variable coefficients, describes the forward-scattering wavefield. The model equation is used to investigate the wave convergence over a semicircular shoal. Numerical results are compared with experimental data (Whalin 1971). Nonlinear effects, which generate higher-harmonic wave components, are definitely important in the focusing zone. Mean free-surface set-downs over the shoal are also computed.