Reliable predictions of future employment are but one of many pieces of intelligence useful to governments in the formulation and implementation of policies of economic stabilization. With the adoption of a stabilization programme in 1945 an explicit need for these predictions was created in the Canadian government. In that year the “Employment Forecast Survey” was initiated by the federal Department of Labour in an attempt to secure the data from which these predictions could be derived. This survey is still conducted by the Department.
This article summarizes the results of an analysis of the predictions which were derived from data obtained by the Employment Forecast Survey from 1946 until 1957, when this method was abandoned, and a new technique of securing predictions from the data was adopted. Because these predictions were so little known outside Canadian government circles it may be useful to provide a brief description of the technique by which they were made, and an assessment of their reliability.
The original conception of the survey was comparatively simple. It seemed reasonable, a priori, that the individual decision-makers in an industrial establishment would be able to forecast the future employment of their own establishment with considerable reliability.