In late August 2000, at APSA's Annual Meeting, a panel of political
scientists offered forecasts for the 2000 presidential election.
Although they differed in particulars, most of the forecasters'
models incorporated a measure of economic growth plus the
president's approval rating. Because the economy was prospering and
President Clinton enjoyed phenomenal approval numbers for the eighth
year of office, the consensus prediction was a Democratic (Gore)
victory by upwards of 6 percentage points. Although political
scientists had offered forecasts before previous presidential
elections, these political scientists' predictions for 2000
attracted more interest than usual. Their predictions drew
exceptional interest both during the campaign, when nobody knew for
sure how the election would turn out, and after, when the
forecasters had to account for their mistakes.