This paper is concerned with the methods of mathematical modeling of the
socio-economic
development of regions. The objective of this study is to analyze and assess the
socio-economic
potential of the territory having regard to its individual socio-economic and
economic-geographical
characteristics. The territory's individual characteristics, in turn, are
treated as invariant
conditions of its development. The study territory includes regions and federal
districts of the
Russian Federation.
An assessment of the regions' development potential is made from the perspective
of analyzing
their current socio-economic situation for the time interval 1999-2002 taken
from official statistical
handbooks. To accomplish this, a special-purpose mathematical model is developed
in the form
of a hierarchical fractal indicative function relating the generalized indicator
characterizing the
regions' development potential, or the “indicated” (that which is indicated
versus indicator), to the
particular socio-economic characteristics of the territory, or the development
indicators of the local
economy, via the model coefficients which is termed regulators.
As a result, the economic-mathematical model is generated in the form of an
indicative function
characterizing the current socio-economic situation of the regions and federal
districts of Russia
on different levels of economic organization (from local and regional to
national). It reflects appropriately
and dramatically the specific character of the region's socio-economic potential
by the
example of the connection of investments with the volumes of production. The
model permits
the position of the regions and districts to be identified in the system of
inter-regional and national
socio-economic links and economic-geographical conditions of development. The
results
derived from modeling the socio-economic development potential of Russia's
regions have been
used to construct the control surface of the country's economy characterizing
the changes in the development potential of the federal districts toward its
decrease.