Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-848d4c4894-nr4z6 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-06-09T18:50:17.058Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

13 - The Black Tulip and February 3, 1637

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 April 2024

Paul Embrechts
Affiliation:
Swiss Federal University (ETH), Zürich
Marius Hofert
Affiliation:
The University of Hong Kong
Valérie Chavez-Demoulin
Affiliation:
Université de Lausanne, Switzerland
Get access

Summary

We have reached the end of our stroll. We find ourselves in the company of Alexandre Dumas who, in 1850, wrote “The Black Tulip”. In it, he combines the stories of the tulip mania in the Netherlands with the tragic story of the brothers de Witt. In our final example of “About the data” we reconstruct the historic trading data of tulip bulbs, which turns out to be a detective story in its own right. Prices for tulip bulbs crashed on February 3, 1637. We also include the story of the growing of the first black tulip in 1986. Johan de Witt was tragically lynched by a politically motivated mob on August 20, 1672. With him, we meet a politician who, through his mathematical training, was able to solve an important problem from the realm of life insurance risk, the pricing of annuities. His publication “Waerdye” is our final example on risk communication. We leave the closing lines of our book to Shakespeare’s Hamlet, who spoke the following words to Horatio “There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy.” We hope that we were able to convince you that these words very much apply to the realm of risk.

Type
Chapter
Information
Risk Revealed
Cautionary Tales, Understanding and Communication
, pp. 337 - 344
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2024

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure coreplatform@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×