The Pakbeh Regional Economy Program is studying the vexing questions
of economic life among the ancient Maya in northwestern Yucatan, Mexico.
The region constitutes an ideal laboratory in which to investigate these
questions, as it has very limited agricultural potential and fewer options
for intensification than are found in the southern and central lowlands,
yet many times more people lived here during the Classic period than can
eke out a living today, and it has abundant evidence of market trade.
Because crop yields in outfields are very low, and known intensification
techniques are possibly incapable of sufficient yield enhancement, we
anticipated that it would be an easy task to demonstrate that this
population was dependent on imports of food and other necessities of life
from beyond the region and therefore had a complex exchange economy.
Twelve years later, we report on how wrong we were. We are still
struggling with an evaluation of agricultural insufficiency. We explore
the many and varied lines of evidence we have pursued and the confounding
factors inherent in them, including problems with reconstructing ancient
population size, equating contemporary and historical crop yields and
farming practices, as well as ancient with modern environmental
conditions, and hypothesizing potential forms of agricultural
intensification, including intensive fertilization and other yield
enhancement techniques, and reliance on alternative crops. The best that
we can say at this juncture is that using contemporary production and
consumption standards, the most conservative population estimates, and the
most liberal estimates of available land in the surrounding region, we can
conclude only that regional agricultural self-sufficiency remains unlikely
but not proved. What initially seemed like an archaeological
“no-brainer” has required us to delve into the realm of
archaeological epistemology that we would like to share with our
colleagues.