To shed some light on possible directions for research and public policies, but also to help equine industry stakeholders to prepare for upcoming changes, the French National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA), together with the French Institute for Horse and Horse Riding (IFCE), have conducted a collective scenario-building exercise for the French equine industry to 2030. The study is based on “morphological analysis”, a method which explores past and current trends, and potential shifts in order to consider possible future developments.

In France, the horse population has been expanding since 1995 to reach 950 000 heads in 2010, representing about 15% of the total European horse population today. This growth is the result of the development of pony-riding for children and the increasing interest of French people in recreational riding and horse-betting. These changes offer major advantages to the different horse sectors, especially in the context of declining State support, increasing international competition on the horse market, societal changes regarding animal welfare, decreasing horse-meat consumption and harmonization of regulations at European level.

On the basis of a review of the industry, the dynamics of past trends and current questions about its future, the foresight panel identified around 40 drivers of change likely to impact the future of the horse industry. These were categorised, prioritised and organised into five components that formed the basis of the scenario-building exercise:

• • the economic and societal context;

• • public expectations of horses and of equestrian and horseracing activities;

• • public policy and regulation;

• • equestrianism and horseracing;

• • the organisation and strategies of horse producers.

This chapter presents the main trends and future outlooks for the factors encompassed within these five major thematic areas synthesised in microscenarios.

The four scenarios lead to differences in the size of the equine population: maybe twice as many horses as today, in the ‘Everybody on Horseback’ scenario, or half as much in the ‘High-Society Horse’ scenario. Businesses, facilities, as well as the types of employment would also be very different (cf. those in ‘The civic horse’ scenario). Likewise, the location of horses in the French regions or the categories of rural areas would differ to a great extent… They all raise shared concerns in terms of (i) the relationship between man and horse, (ii) economic efficiency, (iii) environmental issues, (iv) the preservation of breeds and pressure on surfaces and (v) health, welfare and caring for animals up to and beyond death. These questions call for research development in the fields of animal behaviour, economic and social sciences, breeding and genetic improvement. They also emphasize the need to enhance knowledge and innovation transfer.