Whether political participation is positively related to economic equality is still a paradox. This paper explores the relations among political participation, economic equality, and economic development in Japan after World War II. There was little income bias in political participation in Japan during its period of rapid growth, partly because farmers who benefited inadequately from economic development participated more in politics. This rural bias in participation allowed significant redistribution of income from the urban to rural sector through the budgeting system, thus preventing the natural tendency of widening income inequality at the early stage of development. However, high rural participation did not undermine the rate of growth because it was supportive participation. Farmers overwhelmingly supported the incumbent Liberal Democratic Party, support that enhanced government's continuity and in turn nurtured growth.

Was the Falkland conflict either preventable or predictable? Based on the available evidence, it is apparent that the British could not have been expected to foresee the outbreak of the war. Both Argentina and Britain relied on simplistic and misleading preconceptions or strategic assumptions, leading to a war that might have been avoidable. Issues of conflict and crisis warning are illuminated in this essay, and the Falklands War is related to past instances of “warning failure” and surprise attack. The crucial importance of the strategic logic of decision makers is emphasized. In addition, the lessons of the war for the 1980s highlight the changing nature of the international systemic context and the heightened prospects for crisis and conflict both between allies and within the third world.

Extensive secularization is frequently held to be a necessary condition for political modernity. The author argues that the relationship between religion and the modern state is considerably more complex than this general proposition suggests. It is necessary to specify particular ideological models of the modern state, since these differ significantly from one another; and it is necessary to specify particular religions in their contemporary manifestations, since these also differ in important ways. A detailed analysis of this type suggests that there is no general incompatibility between the main religions of the third world and widely shared, nonideological features of political modernity. Specific religions are shown to be incompatible with some specific forms of the modern state, while presenting no significant obstacle to other models of political modernity.

Two logical problems appear to have impeded the development of an integrative understanding of international and foreign policy phenomena. The first has to do with the potential for foreign policy substitutability: through time and across space, similar factors could plausibly be expected to trigger different foreign policy acts. The second concerns the potential existence of “sometimes true,” domain-specific laws. It is the logical opposite of the substitution problem, suggesting that different processes could plausibly be expected to lead to similar results. Neither problem appears to be well understood in the current literature; if anything, both are ignored. Nevertheless, they are potentially important. Together, they suggest that scholars who are interested in developing a cumulative base of integrative knowledge about foreign policy and international relations phenomena need to rethink both their focus on middle-range theory and their application of the standard approaches. We recommend reconsideration of some of the “grand” theoretical approaches found in the “traditional” literature. A new synthesis of tradition and science and of grand, middle, and narrow approaches appears to be needed. Finally, in contrast to the arguments of proponents of a systems-level approach, we argue that the most fruitful avenues for theorizing and research are at the microlevel in which the focus is on decision making, expected utility calculations, and foreign policy interaction processes.

In his book The War Trap Bruce Bueno de Mesquita claims to offer a deductive theory of international conflict based on the assumption that foreign policy makers attempt to maximize their expected utility. The theory is subjected to a systematic empirical test that seems to provide impressive confirmation. The first part of this article examines Bueno de Mesquita's theory and argues that it cannot be derived from his assumptions. The second part examines the operational version of the theory, which was the one actually tested, and argues that it can be more plausibly interpreted as a version of a different theory—one that Bueno de Mesquita claims to have discredited. The essay concludes by discussing the significance of this book with regard to the question of whether theories of individual rational choice can explain foreign policy decisions.

The twelve books under review, written by scholars representing many different disciplines and nationalities, are proof that the comparative analysis of electoral systems has made significant progress in the late 1970s and early 1980s. It is still not a well-developed field, but it has clearly become a less underdeveloped one. Renewed interest in research on electoral systems has been stimulated by major changes in election rules—usually in the direction of proportional representation—that have been adopted in several countries, and by a vigorous debate on electoral reform in countries that now rely mainly on the plurality method. The United States is the principal deviant case. Two election systems frequently serve as models for electoral reform: the Irish single transferrable vote and the West German additional-member system.

Revolution, war, and political stalemate in the Middle East have led many analysts to declare U.S. policy in the Middle East a failure. To a considerable extent this failure is attributed to an unwillingness to use the area experts who have the requisite knowledge. Often, however, knowledge, intelligence, and analysis are conflated. Frequently, expertise and advocacy are confused. In practice it is difficult to separate scientific knowledge from partisan ideological commitment. Hence the close association between government and the social scientific/area studies community may well defeat the purpose of providing objective and institutionally neutral bases for policy making. Despite some recent trends toward linking the enhanced funding of area studies with more direct service of the needs of government agencies, it may actually be more desirable to explore better ways of detaching area studies from the institutional establishment and the policy orientations of the current National Defense Education Act system.