Hostname: page-component-848d4c4894-75dct Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-05-22T13:27:16.024Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The Impact of State Legislative Term Limits on the Supply of Congressional Candidates

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 January 2021

Jennifer A. Steen
Jennifer A. Steen*
Affiliation:
Boston College
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Do term limits affect the probability that an incumbent state legislator will run for the United States Congress? The theory of strategic politicians suggests that by reducing legislators' opportunity costs of running for higher office, term limits should push some legislators into congressional campaigns they would have foregone had a long-term legislative career been an option. To test this hypothesis, I analyze data from congressional elections held from 1992 through 2004 in the 15 states where term limits were operative in 2004. I find that sitting state legislators who have hit the limit of their state legislative service are more likely to run for Congress than those who are eligible to serve additional terms, whether those terms are limited or not. However, there is no statistically significant difference between the congressional-candidacy rates of legislators whose re-election eligibility is limited, but not exhausted, and legislators whose terms are not limited. By increasing the supply of experienced challengers, term limits may increase competition in elections for non-term-limited offices and, consequently, the quality of representation provided by those elected.

Type
Research Article
Information
State Politics & Policy Quarterly , Volume 6 , Issue 4 , Winter 2006 , pp. 430 - 447
Copyright
Copyright © 2006 by the Board of Trustees of the University of Illinois

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Berkman, Michael B. 1994. “State Legislators in Congress: Strategic Politicians, Professional Legislatures, and the Party Nexus.” American Journal of Political Science 38:1025–55.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bianco, William T. 1984. “Strategic Decisions on Candidacy in U.S. Congressional Districts.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 9:351–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Biskupic, Joan. 1995. “Congressional Term Limits Struck Down,” Washington Post, 23 May, A01.Google Scholar
Black, Gordon. 1972. “A Theory of Political Ambition: Career Choices and the Role of Structural Incentives.” American Political Science Review 66:144–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bond, Jon R., Covington, Cary, and Fleisher, Richard. 1985. “Explaining Challenger Quality in Congressional Elections.” Journal of Politics 47:510–29.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Canon, David T. 1990. Actors, Athletes and Astronauts: Political Amateurs in the United States Congress. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Carey, John M., Niemi, Richard G., and Powell, Lynda W.. 1998. “The Effects of Term Limits on State Legislatures.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 23:271–300.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carey, John M., Niemi, Richard G., and Powell, Lynda W.. 2000. Term Limits in the State Legislatures. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carey, John M., Niemi, Richard G., Powell, Lynda W., and Moncrief, Gary F.. 2006. “The Effects of Term Limits on State Legislatures: A New Survey of the 50 States.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 31:105–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Citizens for Term Limits. 2002. “Citizens for Term Limits Position Statement.” http://www.termlimits.com/position.htm (March 12, 2003).Google Scholar
Fowler, Linda L., and McClure, Robert D.. 1989. Political Ambition: Who Decides to Run for Congress. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Froot, K. A. 1989. “Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation with Cross-Sectional Dependence and Heteroskedasticity in Financial Data.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 24:333–55.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Herrick, Rebekah, and Thomas, Sue. 2005. “Do Term Limits Make a Difference?: Ambition and Motivations among U.S. State Legislators.” American Politics Research 33:726–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jacobson, Gary C. 1989. “Strategic Politicians and the Dynamics of House Elections, 1946-86.” American Political Science Review 83:773–93.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jacobson, Gary C. 1990. “The Effects of Campaigning in House Elections: New Evidence for Old Arguments.” American Journal of Political Science 34:334–62.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jacobson, Gary C. 1997. The Politics of Congressional Elections. 5th ed. New York: Addison-Wesley.Google Scholar
Jacobson, Gary C., and Kernell, Samuel. 1983. Strategy and Choice in Congressional Elections. 2nd ed. Binghamton, NY: Vail-Ballou.Google Scholar
Krasno, Jonathan S. 1994. Challengers, Competition and Reelection: Comparing Senate and House Elections. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Lublin, David Ian. 1994. “Quality, Not Quantity: Strategic Politicians in U.S. Senate Elections, 1952-1990.” Journal of Politics 56:228–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maestas, Cherie L., Maisel, Sandy, and Stone, Walter J.. 1999. “Stepping up or Stopping? Candidate Emergence among State Legislators.” Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Southwest Political Science Association, San Antonio, TX.Google Scholar
Magid, Jonathan. 1994. “Electoral Rotation: Focus of the Debate in the Early Constitutional Period.” Senior thesis. University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill. http://www.ibiblio.org/jem/rotate/rotate.html (March 12, 2003).Google Scholar
Steen, Jennifer A. 2006. Self-Financed Candidates in Congressional Elections. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stone, Walter J., Sandy Maisel, L., and Maestas, Cherie. 1998. “Candidate Emergence in U.S. House Elections.” Presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston, MA.Google Scholar
U.S. Term Limits, Inc. 2003. “About USTL-Mission.” http://www.termlimits.org/About/about.html (March 12, 2003).Google Scholar