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DOES HOMO SAPIENS NEED A RECIPE FOR SURVIVAL? DO WE HAVE ONE?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 May 2024

Alexander Rosenberg*
Affiliation:
Philosophy, Duke University

Abstract

It is argued that the natural and human vicissitudes of the Northern Hemisphere—or at least western European history between 1315 and 1648—provide a preview of the sort of consequences for humanity and its demography that will result from the serious if not catastrophic climate change that is now anticipated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Game theory suggests that at least some nation-state players in the strategic problem that climate change raises will not choose Nash equilibria that mitigate the problem. The only feasible solution will be the discovery or invention of some non-greenhouse-gas-emitting energy source so cheap that its owner will be indifferent to free-riding by all other users of energy. Recent efforts to develop fusion reactors do not provide much hope for this eventuality.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
© 2024 Social Philosophy & Policy Foundation. Printed in the USA

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Footnotes

*

Department of Philosophy, Duke University, alexrose@duke.edu. Competing Interests: The author declares none.

References

1 One need only contemplate the vicissitudes metazoan life has dealt with to see that it is capable of surviving vastly greater changes than can be expected even on the worst scenario of global climate change. Consider the mass extinction of the Permian-Triassic 250 million years ago, a relatively recent event, given the age of the Earth—4 billion years, with the first appearance of cellular life 3.5 billion years ago. There have been several other mass extinction events since this one that killed off 90 percent of all extant species. Even so, it only took 30 million years for vertebrates to recover. This subphylum underwent several other periods of global catastrophe that probably produced severe bottlenecks in the evolutionary tree. Even the most recent Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction owing to asteroid impact (and perhaps simultaneous volcanic eruptions) extinguished 75 percent of all extant species, while making space for the mammalian radiation that produced us.

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32 See Bosello and Zhang, “Assessing Climate Change Impacts,” for projections regarding differing crops in various regions and countries.

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39 Differences in payoffs for compliance versus noncompliance in cooperative agreements may result in nations’ leaders playing more than one or a few different games with one another in the interests of their political and economic elites. As Jean Hampton has shown, public goods provision may be a matter of single-step and multistep production; in the former case—of which keeping temperatures below a certain level is a good example—the structure of a multiplayer interaction may well be a cooperative stag hunt or an assurance game. See Hampton, Jean, “Free-Rider Problems in the Production of Collective Goods,” Economics and Philosophy 3, no. 2 (1987): 245–73CrossRefGoogle Scholar. It would be natural to model the payoffs in such games in ways that make defecting a compelling strategy for Russia, China, and Australia. Their payoffs to hunting the hare instead of the stag are much higher than the payoffs to other economies of doing so. They may even have an interest in other coalitions of countries playing cooperative strategies. This would, however, make their noncompliance more rewarding to themselves.

40 Philip Ball, “The Chase for Fusion Energy,” Nature, November 17, 2021, https://www.nature.com/immersive/d41586-021-03401-w/index.html.

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