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Opinion and Policy: A Global View

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 September 2013

James A. Stimson
Affiliation:
University of Minnesota
Michael B. MacKuen
Affiliation:
University of Missouri, St. Louis
Robert S. Erikson
Affiliation:
University of Houston

Extract

In a world where citizens desire to have their preferences reflected in public policy and, for instrumental reasons, policy makers share that desire, the linkage of opinion to policy still faces formidable problems. Chief among these is this: policy making is highly specific, detailed, and informed, while mass electorates choose not to attend closely enough to politics and policy to have preferences that are similarly specific, detailed, and informed. We now believe that many citizens have meaningful preferences over the general contours of government activity. At the level of whether “government should do more to …” deal with any number of problems, we now see individual citizen preferences in a somewhat more favorable light than we once did. More important, we now view change in aggregate preferences over time as expressive of real beliefs and values about public choices.

But this is not enough. Policy makers face no choices as simple as “do more” or “do less.” They deal at a wholly different level. They deal at a level of specificity where public attitudes are only infrequently measured, and for good reason; mass publics in the main do not have (real) attitudes over details they cannot reasonably be expected to attend to. And yet each of those choices, complicated and specific though they are, will reflect some measure of movement at the more general level where citizen preferences are engaged. The daily choices of the C-SPAN world are obscure and arcane to typical citizens. And yet the actors in that world feel bound by citizen preferences.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © The American Political Science Association 1994

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Footnotes

*

This is a highly abbreviated account of our work in progress, “Dynamic Representation,” some modeling aspects of which are reported in Stimson, MacKuen, Erikson,and Kellstedt 1993. This work was supported in part by National Science Foundation Grant, SES-9011807, “Political Eras and Representation.” We would like to thank Chris Wlezien, Robert Durr, Tami Buhr, and Paul Kellstedt for notable contributions to the measurement development activities we report here. We are grateful to Jeff Segal for snaring his Solicitor General data with us.

References

Arnold, R. Douglas. 1990. The Logic of Congressional Action. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Converse, Philip E. 1964. “The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics.” In Ideology and Discontent, ed. Apter, David E. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
Stimson, James A. 1991. Public Opinion in America: Moods, Cycles, and Swings. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.Google Scholar
Stimson, James A., MacKuen, Michael B., Erikson, Robert S., and Kellstedt, Paul. 1993. “Dynamic Analysis with Latent Constructs: The Kalman DYMIMIC Specification.” Paper presented to the Ninth Annual Meeting of the Political Methodology Society, Tallahassee, FL.Google Scholar