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The Political Economy Model: A Blue Wave Forecast For 2020

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 October 2020

Michael S. Lewis-Beck
Affiliation:
University of Iowa
Charles Tien
Affiliation:
Hunter College & The Graduate Center, CUNY

Abstract

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Type
Forecasting the 2020 US Elections
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the American Political Science Association

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References

Campbell, James E. 2017. “Introduction: A Re-cap of the 2016 Election Forecasts.” PS: Political Science & Politics 50:331–32.Google Scholar
Gelman, Andrew, and Heidemanns, Merlin. 2020. “Forecasting the US Elections.” The Economist. https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president.Google Scholar
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Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Rice, Tom W.. 1984b. “Forecasting U.S. House Elections.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 9:475486.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
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Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Tien, Charles. 1996. “The Future in Forecasting: Prospective Presidential Models.” American Politics Quarterly 24:468491.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Tien, Charles. 2008. “The Job of President and the Jobs Model Forecast: Obama for ’08?PS: Political Science & Politics 41:687690.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Tien, Charles. 2018. “Candidates and campaigns: How they alter election forecasts.” Electoral Studies 54:303308. ISSN 0261-3794. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2018.04.014.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tien, Charles, and Lewis-Beck, Michael S.. 2019. “Congressional Midterm Forecasts: A Trump Economic Difference?The Forum 16 (4): 591610. https://doi:10.1515/for-2018-0039 Google Scholar
Tien, Charles. 2020. “Replication Data for: 2020 US Presidential Forecast.” Harvard Dataverse doi: 10.7910/DVN/XJVOBX CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tufte, Edward R. 1974. Data Analysis for Politics and Policy. Englewood Cliffs, New. Jersey: Prentice-Hall.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Lewis-Beck and Tien Dataset

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