Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Home
Hostname: page-component-5c569c448b-qzllc Total loading time: 0.17 Render date: 2022-07-04T23:08:11.161Z Has data issue: true Feature Flags: { "shouldUseShareProductTool": true, "shouldUseHypothesis": true, "isUnsiloEnabled": true, "useRatesEcommerce": false, "useNewApi": true } hasContentIssue true

Citizen Forecasting 2020: A State-by-State Experiment

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 October 2020

Andreas E. Murr
Affiliation:
University of Warwick, England
Michael S. Lewis-Beck
Affiliation:
University of Iowa

Abstract

Image of the first page of this content. For PDF version, please use the ‘Save PDF’ preceeding this image.'
Type
Forecasting the 2020 US Elections
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the American Political Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Fisher, Stephen D., and Lewis-Beck, Michael S.. 2016. “Forecasting the 2015 British General Election: The 1992 Debacle All Over Again?Electoral Studies 41 (1): 225–29.10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.016CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Graefe, Andreas. 2014. “Accuracy of Vote Expectation Surveys in Forecasting Elections.” Public Opinion Quarterly 78 (S1): 204–32.10.1093/poq/nfu008CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jennings, Will, Lewis-Beck, Michael S. , and Wlezien, Christopher. 2020. “Election Forecasting: Too Far Out?International Journal of Forecasting 36 (3): 949–62.10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.12.002CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leiter, Debra, Murr, Andreas E., Ramírez, Ericka Rascón, and Stegmaier, Mary. 2018. “Social Networks and Citizen Election Forecasting: The More Friends the Better.” International Journal of Forecasting 34 (2): 235–48.10.1016/j.ijforecast.2017.11.006CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Stegmaier, Mary. 2011. “Citizen Forecasting: Can UK Voters See the Future?Electoral Studies 30 (2): 264–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Tien, Charles. 1999. “Voters as Forecasters: A Micromodel of Election Prediction.” International Journal of Forecasting 15 (2): 175–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Murr, Andreas E. 2011. “‘Wisdom of Crowds’? A Decentralized Election Forecasting Model That Uses Citizens’ Local Expectations.” Electoral Studies 30 (4): 771–83.10.1016/j.electstud.2011.07.005CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Murr, Andreas E. 2015. “The Wisdom of Crowds: Applying Condorcet’s Jury Theorem to Forecasting US Presidential Elections.” International Journal of Forecasting 31 (3): 916–29.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Murr, Andreas E. 2016. “The Wisdom of Crowds: What Do Citizens Forecast for the 2015 British General Election?Electoral Studies 41 (1): 283–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Murr, Andreas E. 2017. “Wisdom of Crowds.” In The SAGE Handbook of Electoral Behaviour, ed. Arzheimer, Kai, Evans, Jocelyn, and Lewis-Beck, Michael S., 835–60. London: SAGE.10.4135/9781473957978.n36CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Murr, Andreas E., and Lewis-Beck, Michael S.. 2020. “Replication Data for Citizen Forecasting 2020: A State-by-State Experiment.” Harvard Dataverse. doi:10.7910/DVN/S1594S.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Murr, Andreas E., Stegmaier, Mary, and Lewis-Beck, Michael S.. 2016. “Using Citizen Forecasts We Predict That with 362 Electoral Votes, Hillary Clinton Will Be the Next President.” London School of Economics American Politics and Policy Blog. Available at http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2016/11/03/using-citizen-forecasts-we-predict-that-with-362-electoral-votes-hillary-clinton-will-be-the-next-president.Google Scholar
Murr, Andreas E., Stegmaier, Mary, and Lewis-Beck, Michael S.. 2017. “New British Election Forecast: Conservatives Gain 31 Seats and Have 77% Chance of Controlling a Majority. Washington Post Monkey Cage. Available at www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/06/06/can-people-rather-than-pollsters-accurately-predict-thursdays-u-k-election/?utm_term=.41f7430ecc58.Google Scholar
Murr, Andreas E., Stegmaier, Mary, and Lewis-Beck, Michael S.. 2019. “Citizen Forecasting 2019: A Big Win for the Conservatives.” London School of Economics British Politics and Policy Blog. Available at https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/citizen-forecasting-2019-a-big-win-for-the-conservatives.Google Scholar
Murr, Andreas E., Stegmaier, Mary, and Lewis-Beck, Michael S.. n.d. “Vote Expectations Versus Vote Intentions: Rival Forecasting Strategies.” British Journal of Political Science. doi:10.1017/S0007123419000061.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Murr and Lewis-Beck supplementary material

Tables A1-A3

Download Murr and Lewis-Beck supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 122 KB
Supplementary material: Link

Murr and Lewis-Beck Dataset

Link

Save article to Kindle

To save this article to your Kindle, first ensure coreplatform@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Citizen Forecasting 2020: A State-by-State Experiment
Available formats
×

Save article to Dropbox

To save this article to your Dropbox account, please select one or more formats and confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you used this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your Dropbox account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Citizen Forecasting 2020: A State-by-State Experiment
Available formats
×

Save article to Google Drive

To save this article to your Google Drive account, please select one or more formats and confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you used this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your Google Drive account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Citizen Forecasting 2020: A State-by-State Experiment
Available formats
×
×

Reply to: Submit a response

Please enter your response.

Your details

Please enter a valid email address.

Conflicting interests

Do you have any conflicting interests? *