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On the Evolution of Pre-Flare Patterns of a 3-Dimensional Model of AR 11429

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  24 July 2018

M. B. Korsós
Affiliation:
Solar Physics & Space Plasma Research Center (SP2RC), School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sheffield, Hounsfield Road, S3 7RH, UK DHO, Konkoly Astronomical Institute, Research Centre for Astronomy and Earth Sciences, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Debrecen, P.O.Box 30, H-4010, Hungary email: m.korsos@sheffield.ac.uk
S. Poedts
Affiliation:
Center for Mathematical Plasma Astrophysics, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200B, 3001 Leuven, Belgium
N. Gyenge
Affiliation:
Solar Physics & Space Plasma Research Center (SP2RC), School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sheffield, Hounsfield Road, S3 7RH, UK DHO, Konkoly Astronomical Institute, Research Centre for Astronomy and Earth Sciences, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Debrecen, P.O.Box 30, H-4010, Hungary email: m.korsos@sheffield.ac.uk
M. K. Georgoulis
Affiliation:
Research Center for Astronomy and Applied Mathematics of the Academy of Athens, 4 Soranou Efesiou Street, 11527Athens
S. Yu
Affiliation:
New Jersey Institute of Technology, Center for Solar-Terrestrial Research, 323 Martin Luther King Blvd Newark, NJ 07102, United States
S. K. Bisoi
Affiliation:
Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Y. Yan
Affiliation:
Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
M. S. Ruderman
Affiliation:
Solar Physics & Space Plasma Research Center (SP2RC), School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sheffield, Hounsfield Road, S3 7RH, UK
R. Erdélyi
Affiliation:
Solar Physics & Space Plasma Research Center (SP2RC), School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sheffield, Hounsfield Road, S3 7RH, UK
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Abstract

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We apply a novel pre-flare tracking of sunspot groups towards improving the estimation of flare onset time by focusing on the evolution of the 3D magnetic field construction of AR 11429. The 3D magnetic structure is based on potential field extrapolation encompassing a vertical range from the photosphere through the chromosphere and transition region into the low corona. The basis of our proxy measure of activity prediction is the so-called weighted horizontal gradient of magnetic field (WGM) defined between spots of opposite polarities close to the polarity inversion line of an active region. The temporal variation of the distance of the barycenter of the opposite polarities is also found to possess potentially important diagnostic information about the flare onset time estimation as function of height similar to its counterpart introduced initially in an application at the photosphere only in Korsós et al. (2015). We apply the photospheric pre-flare behavioural patterns of sunspot groups to the evolution of their associated 3D-constructed AR 11429 as function of height. We found that at a certain height in the lower solar atmosphere the onset time may be estimated much earlier than at the photosphere or at any other heights. Therefore, we present a tool and recipe that may potentially identify the optimum height for flare prognostic in the solar atmosphere allowing to improve our flare prediction capability and capacity.

Type
Contributed Papers
Copyright
Copyright © International Astronomical Union 2018 

References

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