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Using Sequences to Model Crises

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 November 2014

Gretchen Casper  and
Matthew Wilson
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Abstract

The logic of historical explanation obliges one to understand temporality as a moderator of various effects on political outcomes. Temporal problems remain in the empirical analysis of political phenomena, however, especially as it pertains to categorical data and long-term time dependence. Many theories in political science assert that sequencing matters or that political outcomes are path dependent, but they remain untested (or improperly tested) assertions for which sequence analysis may be valuable. This article briefly reviews the disciplinary origins of sequence analysis and applies the method in order to understand bargaining between actors during national crises. Finally, it explores the robustness of a commonly used sequence analysis metric. The ability to demonstrate and separate sequential effects from accumulative effects—made possible through sequence analysis—constitutes a major step in political science toward analyses that are truly time sensitive.

Type
Original Articles
Information
Political Science Research and Methods , Volume 3 , Issue 2 , May 2015 , pp. 381 - 397
Copyright
Copyright © The European Political Science Association 2014 

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Footnotes

Gretchen Casper is Associate Professor of Political Science and Asian Studies, Pennsylvania State University, 315 Pond Lab, University Park, PA 16802-6202 USA (email: gcasper@psu.edu). Matthew Wilson is a Ph.D. candidate in Political Science, Pennsylvania State University. He is currently a visiting scholar at Vanderbilt University, Commons Center PMB 0505, 230 Appleton Place, Nashville, TN 37203-5721 USA (email: mcw215@psu.edu. The authors would like to thank Philippe Blanchard, Phil Schrodt and Emily Helms for their assistance. To view supplementary material for this article, please visit http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2014.27.

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