Hostname: page-component-848d4c4894-v5vhk Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-06-21T14:15:15.623Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Estimating signaling games in international relations: problems and solutions

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  09 December 2019

Casey Crisman-Cox Open the ORCID record for Casey Crisman-Cox [Opens in a new window]  and
Michael Gibilisco
Casey Crisman-Cox*
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA
Michael Gibilisco
Affiliation:
Division of Humanities and Social Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
*
*Corresponding author. Email: c.crisman-cox@tamu.edu
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Signaling games are central to political science but often have multiple equilibria, leading to no definitive prediction. We demonstrate that these indeterminacies create substantial problems when fitting theory to data: they lead to ill-defined and discontinuous likelihoods even if the game generating the data has a unique equilibrium. In our experiments, currently used techniques frequently fail to uncover the parameters of the canonical crisis-signaling game, regardless of sample size and number of equilibria in the data generating process. We propose three estimators that remedy these problems, outperforming current best practices. We fit the signaling model to data on economic sanctions. Our solutions find a novel U-shaped relationship between audience costs and the propensity for leaders to threaten sanctions, which current best practices fail to uncover.

Keywords

Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE)Structural estimationCrisis-signalingEconomic sanctions
Type
Original Article
Information
Political Science Research and Methods , Volume 9 , Issue 3 , July 2021 , pp. 565 - 582
Copyright
Copyright © The European Political Science Association 2019

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Aguirregabiria, V and Mira, P (2007) Sequential estimation of dynamic discrete games. Econometrica 75, 1–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bajari, P, Benkard, CL and Levin, J (2007) Estimating dynamic models of imperfect competition. Econometrica 75, 1331–1370.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bas, MA, Signorino, CS and Whang, T (2014) Knowing one's future preferences: a correlated agent model with bayesian updating. Journal of Theoretical Politics 26, 3–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chaudoin, S (2014) Audience features and the strategic timing of trade disputes. International Organization 68, 877–911.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Crisman-Cox, C and Gibilisco, M (2018) Audience costs and the dynamics of war and peace. American Journal of Political Science 62, 566–580.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
De Paula, A (2013) Econometric analysis of games with multiple equilibria. Annual Review Economics 5, 107–131.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dorussen, H and Mo, J (2001) Ending economic sanctions audience costs and rent-seeking as commitment strategies. Journal of Conflict Resolution 45, 395–426.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Drezner, DW (2003) The hidden hand of economic coercion. International Organization 57, 643–659.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ellickson, PB and Misra, S (2011) Estimating discrete games. Marketing Science 30, 997–1010.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gleditsch, KS, Hug, S, Schubiger, LI and Wucherpfennig, J (2018) International conventions and nonstate actors. Journal of Conflict Resolution 62, 346–380.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hart, RA Jr. (2000) Democracy and the successful use of economic sanctions. Political Research Quarterly 53, 267–284.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hotz, VJ and Miller, RA (1993) Conditional choice probabilities and the estimation of dynamic models. The Review of Economic Studies 60, 497–529.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jo, J (2011) Nonuniqueness of the equilibrium in Lewis and Schultz's model. Political Analysis 19, 351–362.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Keohane, RO (1984) After Hegemony. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Kertzer, JD and Brutger, R (2016) Decomposing audience costs: bringing the audience back into audience cost theory. American Journal of Political Science 60, 234–249.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Krustev, VL and Morgan, TC (2011) Ending economic coercion: domestic politics and international bargaining. Conflict Management and Peace Science 28, 351–376.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kurizaki, S and Whang, T (2015) Detecting audience costs in international crises. International Organization 69, 949–980.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis, JB and Schultz, KA (2003) Revealing preferences: empirical estimation of a crisis bargaining game with incomplete information. Political Analysis 11, 345–367.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Martin, LL (1993) Credibility, costs, and institutions: cooperation on economic sanctions. World Politics 45, 406–432.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McKelvey, RD and Palfrey, TR (1998) Quantal response equilibria for extensive form games. Experimental Economics 1, 9–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pesendorfer, M and Schmidt-Dengler, P (2010) Sequential estimation of dynamic discrete games: a comment. Econometrica 78, 833–842.Google Scholar
Peterson, TM (2013) Sending a message: the reputation effect of us sanction threat behavior. International Studies Quarterly 57, 670–682.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schelling, TC (1960) The Strategy of Conflict. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Schultz, KA and Lewis, JB (2005) Learning about learning. Political Analysis 14, 121–129.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Signorino, CS (1999) Strategic interaction and the statistical analysis of international conflict. American Political Science Review 93, 279–297.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Su, C-L and Judd, KL (2012) Constrained optimization approaches to estimation of structural models. Econometrica 80, 2213–2230.Google Scholar
Thomson, CP (2016) Public support for economic and military coercion and audience costs. British Journal of Politics and International Relations 18, 407–421.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Trager, RF and Vavreck, L (2011) The political costs of crisis bargaining: presidential rhetoric and the role of party. American Journal of Political Science 55, 526–545.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
van Damme, E (1996) Stability and Perfection of Nash Equilibria, 2nd Edn. Berlin: Springer.Google Scholar
Wand, J (2006) Comparing models of strategic choice: the role of uncertainty and signaling. Political Analysis 14, 101–120.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Whang, T (2010) Empirical implications of signaling models. Political Analysis 18, 381–402.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Whang, T, McLean, EV and Kuberski, DW (2013) Coercion, information, and the success of sanction threats. American Journal of Political Science 57, 65–81.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Crisman-Cox and Gibilisco Dataset

Dataset

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/1JBNDC
Link
Supplementary material: PDF

Crisman-Cox and Gibilisco supplementary material

Crisman-Cox and Gibilisco supplementary material

Download Crisman-Cox and Gibilisco supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 725 KB