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Beyond Valence: Estimating Models of Party Choice Without Resort to Ecological Fallacy or Unfounded Causal Assumptions. A Reply to Whiteley et al.*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 December 2015

Geoffrey Evans  and
Kat Chzhen
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Abstract

Whiteley et al. criticize our re-analysis of the valence model of party choice. In reply, we argue that they are mistaken with regard to their understanding of some of the claims made in our paper and, in one instance, the variables included in the analysis. We also point to flaws in their interpretation of the distinction between weak and contemporaneous endogeneity and the assumptions of their vector error correction model. Their argument privileging aggregate analysis introduces predictable inferential problems and also, it might be suggested, potentially casts doubt on their own research, which uses individual-level analysis to make the case for the valence model. For these reasons, we see no reason to moderate the negative implications of our analysis for the validity of the model.

Type
Comment
Information
Political Science Research and Methods , Volume 4 , Issue 1 , January 2016 , pp. 241 - 247
Copyright
© The European Political Science Association 2015 

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Footnotes

*

Geoffrey Evans, Department of Politics & International Relations, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 1NF (geoffrey.evans@nuffield.ox.ac.uk). Kat Chzhen, UNICEF Office of Research, Piazza SS Annunziata 12, Florence 50122, Italy (ychzhen@unicef.org).

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