Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-tj2md Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-19T20:28:20.791Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Simulations of shipping along Arctic routes: comparison, analysis and economic perspectives

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 January 2014

Frédéric Lasserre
Frédéric Lasserre*
Affiliation:
Department of Geography, Laval University, 2405 Terrasse St, Abitibi Price Building, Québec, QC G1V 0A6, Canada (Frederic.lasserre@ggr.ulaval.ca)
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Arctic sea routes have for long been of interest for shipping because of much shorter distances between the Atlantic and the Pacific. Sea ice prevented real development of significant traffic, but did not prevent research from trying to assess their economic viability. With the melting of sea ice in the Arctic, this effort at modeling the profitability of Arctic shipping routes has received a new impetus. However, the conclusions of these studies vary widely, depending on the parameters chosen and their value. What can be said of these models, from 1991 until 2013, and to what extent can a model be drawn, capitalising on twenty years of simulations?

Type
Research Article
Information
Polar Record , Volume 51 , Issue 3 , May 2015 , pp. 239 - 259
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2014 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Arpiainen, M. and Kiili, R.. 2006. Arctic shuttle container link from Alaska US to Europe. Helsinki: Aker Arctic Technology (Report k-63).Google Scholar
Borgerson, S. 2008. Arctic meltdown. Foreign Affairs 87 (2): 63–77.Google Scholar
Byers, M. 2009. Who owns the Arctic? Vancouver: Douglas and Mcintyre.Google Scholar
Chernova, S. and Volkov, A.. 2010. Economic feasibility of the northern sea route container shipping development. Unpublished MSc dissertation. Bodø: Graduate School of Business, Business and Transportation.Google Scholar
Damas, P. 2012. Container shipping market outlook, freight rates and index–linked contracts. Birmingham: Drewry Supply Chains Advisors, 2 May 2012, URL: www.tradeextensions.com/resources/multimodal/2012/drewry_multimodal_2012.pdf, (accessed 31 October 2012).Google Scholar
DNV (Det Norske Veritas). 2010. Shipping across the Arctic Ocean. Høvik: DNV Research and Innovation (Position paper 4).Google Scholar
Dowdeswell, J. and Hambrey, M.. 2002. Islands of the Arctic. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Dvorak, R. 2009. Engineering and economic implications of ice–classed containerships. Unpublished MSc dissertation. Cambridge MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology.Google Scholar
Falck, H. 2012. Shipping in Arctic waters: the Northern Sea Route. Mariehamn: Marine Insurance Seminar (2012, Mariehamn, 26 April 2012).Google Scholar
Gedeon, J. 2007. Variable Ice, harsh weather conditions make future of Arctic shipping tentative. Canadian Sailings – Transportation & Trade Logistics 12: 22–24.Google Scholar
Guy, E. 2006. Evaluating the viability of commercial shipping in the Northwest Passage. Journal of Ocean Technology 1 (1): 9–15.Google Scholar
Howell, S.E.L. and Yackel, J.J.. 2004. A vessel transit assessment of sea ice variability in the Western Arctic, 1969–2002: implications for ship navigation. Canadian Journal of Remote Sensing 30 (2): 205–215.Google Scholar
Hua, X., Yin, Z., Jia, D., Jin, F. and Ouyang, H.. 2011. The potential seasonal alternative of Asia–Europe container service via Northern Sea Route under the Arctic sea ice retreat. Maritime Policy and Management 38 (5): 541–560.Google Scholar
Juurmaa, K. 2006. Arctic operational platform: integrated transport system. Helsinki: Aker Finnyards Inc. (ARCOP final report).Google Scholar
Kamesaki, K., Kishi, S., and Yamauchi, Y.. 1999. Simulation of NSR navigation based on year round and seasonal operation scenarios. Oslo: INSROP (Working paper 8).Google Scholar
Kitagawa, H. 2001. The northern sea route. The shortest sea route linking East Asia and Europe. Tokyo: The Ocean Foundation.Google Scholar
Lasserre, F. 2010a. Changements climatiques dans l'Arctique: vers la disparition de la banquise? In: Lasserre, F. (editor). Passages et mers arctiques. Géopolitique d'une région en mutation. Québec: Presses de l'Université du Québec: 11–32.Google Scholar
Lasserre, F. 2010b. Mines et pétrole. Vers une rapide expansion de l'exploitation des ressources naturelles du sous–sol dans l'Arctique? In: Lasserre, F. (editor). Passages et mers arctiques. Géopolitique d'une région en mutation. Québec: Presses de l'Université du Québec: 373–410.Google Scholar
Lasserre, F. 2010c. Vers une autoroute maritime? Passages arctiques et trafic maritime international. In: Lasserre, F. (editor). Passages et mers arctiques. Géopolitique d'une région en mutation. Québec: Presses de l'Université du Québec: 449–479.Google Scholar
Lasserre, F. 2011. Arctic shipping routes. From the Panama myth to reality. International Journal 66 (4): 793–808.Google Scholar
Lasserre, F. and Pelletier, S.. 2011. Polar super seaways? Maritime transport in the Arctic: an analysis of shipowners’ intentions. Journal of Transport Geography 19: 1465–1473.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Laulajainen, R. 2009. The Arctic sea route. International Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics 1 (1): 55–73.Google Scholar
Liu, M. and Kronbak, J.. 2010. The potential economic viability of using the northern sea route (NSR) as an alternative route between Asia and Europe. Journal of Transport Geography 18: 434–444.Google Scholar
Loughnane, D. 2009. Mostly employed elsewhere: one of the biggest challenges in developing Arctic shipping has nothing to do with ice. Canadian Sailings – Transportation and Trade Logistics 14: 23–24.Google Scholar
MacLeod, B. 2012. Personal communication. Supply Team Leader, Fuel and Construction Products Division, Public Works and Government Services Canada; correspondence with author, 10 October 2012CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mejlaender–Larsen, M. 2009. ARCON – Arctic container. DNV Container Ship Update 2: 9–11.Google Scholar
Mulherin, N. 1996. The northern sea route. Its development and evolving state of operations in the 1990s. Hanover NH: Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (Research report 96–3).Google Scholar
Mulherin, N., Eppler, D., Proshutinsky, T., Proshutinsy, A., Farmer, L.D. and Smith, O.. 1996. Development and Rresults of a northern sea route transit model. Hanover NH: Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (Research report 96–5).Google Scholar
Niini, M., Kaganov, S. and Tustin, R.. 2007. Development of Arctic double acting shuttle tankers for the Prirazlomnoye project. Busan: TSCF (TSCF 2007 shipbuilders meeting, Busan, 24–25 October 2007).Google Scholar
Northern Sea Route Administration. 2012. Order dated 7 June 2011. Maximum rates for services of the icebreaker fleet on the Northern Sea Route to ensure the transportation of cargo. URL: www.arctic–lio.com/nsr_tariffsystem (accessed 15 October 2012).Google Scholar
Notteboom, T. and Vernimmen, B.. 2009. The effect of high fuel costs on liner service configuration in container shipping. Journal of Transport Geography 17: 325–337.Google Scholar
Nunatsiaq Online. 2012. Fednav, Canadian Royalties ink deal for Nunavik Nickel mine icebreaker. The icebreaker will carry nickel and copper to Europe, 31 October 2012. URL: www.nunatsiaqonline.ca/stories/article/65674fednav_canadian_royalties_ink_deal_for_nunavik_nickel_mine_icebreaker/, (accessed 6 November 2012).Google Scholar
NYK (Nippon Yusen Kaisha). 2012. Container specifications. Tokyo: NYK URL: www2.nykline.com/liner/container_specifications/dry.html (accessed 1 November 2012)Google Scholar
Ouellet, J. 2011. Personal communication. Planning and Arctic Operations Officer, Central and Arctic Region, Canadian Coast Guard, Sarnia (Ontario); correspondence with author, 15 December 2011.Google Scholar
Paterson, T. 2011. Cost comparison of shipping in the Arctic. St. John's Newfoundland: Fednav (Presentation at Arctic Shipping North America conference 2011, St John's, 12–14 October 2011).Google Scholar
Schøyen, H. and Bråthen, S.. 2011. The northern sea route versus the Suez Canal: cases from bulk shipping. Journal of Transport Geography 19: 977–983.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Somanathan, S., Flynn, P. and Szymanski, J.. 2007. Feasibility of a sea route through the Canadian Arctic. Maritime Economics and Logistics 9: 324–334.Google Scholar
Somanathan, S., Flynn, P. and Szymanski, J.. 2009. The northwest passage: a simulation. Transportation Research (Part A) 43: 127–135.Google Scholar
Srinath, B. N. 2010. Arctic shipping: commercial viability of the Arctic sea routes. Unpublished MSc Dissertation. London: City University.Google Scholar
Suez Canal Authority. 2012. Toll calculator. Suez: Suez Canal Authority. URL: www.suezcanal.gov.eg/calc.aspx (accessed 8 December 2013).Google Scholar
UNCTAD (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development) 2012. Review of maritime transport 2011. New York: United Nations Publications.Google Scholar
Verny, J. and Grigentin, C.. 2009. Container shipping on the northern sea route. International Journal of Production Economics 122 (1): 107–117.Google Scholar
Wergeland, T. 1992. The northern sea route – rosy prospects for commercial shipping. International Challenges 12 (1): 43–57.Google Scholar
Wergeland, T. 2013. Northeast, northwest and transpolar passages in comparison. In: Østreng, W. (editor). Shipping in Arctic waters. A comparison of the northeast, northwest and trans polar passages, Berlin: Springer Verlag and Praxis: 299–352.Google Scholar
Wergeland, T., Ivanov, Y., Isakov, N., Batskikh, Y., Høifødt, S., Nilsen, F. and Armstrong, T.. 1991. The northern sea route project. In: Østreng, W. and Jørgensen–Dahl, A. (editors). Pilot studies report. Lysaker: Fridtjof Nansen Institute.Google Scholar