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Prediction and Hindsight as Confirmatory Evidence

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 March 2022

Herbert A. Simon
Herbert A. Simon*
Affiliation:
Carnegie Institute of Technology
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Extract

The central concept of Carnap's probabilistic theory of induction is a triadic relation, c(h, e), the probability or degree of confirmation of the hypothesis, h, on evidence, e. The relation is a purely logical one. The value of c can be computed from a knowledge of h, of e, of the structure of the language, and of the inductive rule to be employed.

Type
Research Article
Information
Philosophy of Science , Volume 22 , Issue 3 , July 1955 , pp. 227 - 230
Copyright
Copyright © Philosophy of Science Association 1955

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Footnotes

*

I am grateful to the Ford Foundation for a grant-in-aid that made this work possible.

References

1. Carnap, Rudolf, The Continuum of Inductive Methods (U. of Chicago, 1952).Google Scholar
2. Carnap, Rudolf, Logical Foundations of Probability (U. of Chicago, 1950).Google Scholar
3. Reichenbach, Hans, Experience and Prediction (U. of Chicago, 1938).Google Scholar
4. Simon, Herbert A., “A Bayes Solution for a Non-Sequential Decision Problem,” not yet published.Google Scholar