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Discussion: Probabilistic Causality: A Rejoinder to Ellery Eells

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 April 2022

John Dupré
John Dupré*
Affiliation:
Department of Philosophy, Stanford University
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Abstract

In an earlier paper (Dupré 1984), I criticized a thesis sometimes defended by theorists of probabilistic causality, namely, that a probabilistic cause must raise the probability of its effect in every possible set of causally relevant background conditions (the “contextual unanimity thesis”). I also suggested that a more promising analysis of probabilistic causality might be sought in terms of statistical relevance in a fair sample. Ellery Eells (1987) has defended the contextual unanimity thesis against my objections, and also raised objections of his own to my positive claims. In this paper I defend and amplify both my objections to the contextual unanimity thesis and my constructive suggestion.

Type
Discussion
Information
Philosophy of Science , Volume 57 , Issue 4 , December 1990 , pp. 690 - 698
Copyright
Copyright © 1990 by the Philosophy of Science Association

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