Hostname: page-component-76fb5796d-25wd4 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-26T20:43:43.263Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Toward a Behavioral Approach to Modelling Dynamic Production Choice Structures

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 May 2017

R. D. Weaver
Affiliation:
Agricultural Economics, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, The Pennsylvania State University
S. E. Stefanou
Affiliation:
Agricultural Economics, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, The Pennsylvania State University
Get access

Extract

Given the stable position in applied literature now held by static, duality models of choice, the focus of innovation has shifted to development of models of dynamic economic behavior. However, before jumping into this stream it is important to assess 1) the objectives and empirical relevance of study of such behavior, and 2) the characteristics of observed behavior which might help us resolve the specification of such models. The objective of empirical study of dynamic behavior seems clear. An accurate descriptive model is desired which could provide the basis for prediction and comparative analysis of behavior. The relevance of any such study is limited, as usual, by the accuracy and consistency with which the theory of behavior upon which the model is based simulates observed behavior. A prerequisite of relevance is an understanding of the elemental characteristics of observed dynamic behavior which might suggest the primitive elements of a theory of behavior and motivate model specification.

Type
AAEA/NAREA Invited Session: Dynamic Supply Response and Agricultural Investment
Copyright
Copyright © 1984 Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Akaike, M.Markovian Representation of Stochastic Processes and Its Application to the Analysis of Autoregressive Moving Average Processes.” Ann. Inst. Stat. Math. 26 (1974):363387.Google Scholar
Akaike, M.On Entropy Maximization Principle, Applications of Statistics, Krishnaiah, P. R., ed., North-Holland, Amsterdam, 1977, pp. 2741.Google Scholar
Amemiya, T.A Note on a Heteroscedastic Model.” Journal of Econometrics 6 (1977):365370; and “Corrigenda,” Journal of Econometrics 8 (1978): 275.Google Scholar
Antle, J. M.Incorporating Risk in Production Analysis.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 65 (1983):10991106.Google Scholar
Bertsekas, D. Dynamic Programming and Stochastic Control. New York: Academic Press, 1976.Google Scholar
Box, G. E. P. and Jenkins, G. M. Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. San Francisco: Holden-Day, 1976.Google Scholar
Burt, O. R., Koo, W. W., and Dudley, N. J.Optimal Stochastic Control of U.S. Wheat Stocks and Exports.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 62 (1980):172187.Google Scholar
Cross, J. G. A Theory of Adaptive Economic Behavior. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press, 1983.Google Scholar
Day, R. H., Aigner, D., and Smith, K.Safety Margins and Profit Maximization in the Theory of the Firm.” Journal of Political Economy 79 (1971):12931301.Google Scholar
Dixon, B. L. and Howitt, R. E.Resource Production under Uncertainty: Stochastic Control Approach.American Journal of Agricultural Economics 62 (1980):499507.Google Scholar
Doob, J. L. Stochastic Processes. John Wiley, New York, 1983.Google Scholar
Epstein, L.Duality Theory and Functional Forms for Dynamic Factor Demands.” Review of Economic Studies (1981):8195.Google Scholar
Geweke, John. “Testing the Exogeneity Specification in the Complete Dynamic Simultaneous Equation Model.” Journal of Econometrics 7 (1978):163185.Google Scholar
Goldberger, A. S.Maximum-Likelihood Estimation of Regressions Containing Unobservable Independent Variables.” International Economic Review 13 (1972):115.Google Scholar
Grenander, Y. and Rosenblatt, M. Statistical Analysis of Stationary Time Series, John Wiley, New York, 1957.Google Scholar
Griffiths, W. E. and Anderson, J. R.Using Time-Series and Cross-Section Data to Estimate a Production Function with Positive and Negative Marginal Risks.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 77 (1982):529536.Google Scholar
Griliches, Z.Distributed Lags: A Survey,” Econometrica 35 (1967):1649.Google Scholar
Hannan, E. S.Estimation of the Order of an ARMA Process,” Annals of Statistics 8 (1980):10711081.Google Scholar
Heckman, J. J.Dummy Endogenous Variables is a Simultaneous Equation System.” Econometrica 46 (1978):931960.Google Scholar
Hildreth, C. and Houck, J. P.Some Estimators of Heteroscedastic Variances in Linear Models.Journal of the American Statistical Association 63 (1968):584595.Google Scholar
Just, R. E. and Pope, R. D.Stochastic Specification of Production Functions and Economic Implications.” Journal of Econometrics 7 (1978):6786.Google Scholar
Just, R. E. and Pope, R. D.Production Function Estimation and Related Risk Considerations.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 61 (1979):276284.Google Scholar
Leamer, E. E. Specification Searches: Ad Hoc Inference with Nonexperimental Data. New York: Wiley, 1978.Google Scholar
Loury, G. C.The Optimal Exploitation of an Unknown Resource Reserve.” Review of Economic Studies (1978):621636.Google Scholar
Maddala, G. S. and Lee, L.Recursive Models with Qualitative Endogenous Variables.” Annals of Economic and Social Measurement 5 (1976):525545.Google Scholar
Magnus, J. R.Maximum Likelihood Estimation of the GLS Model with Unknown Parameters in the Disturbance Covariance Matrix.” Journal of Econometrics 7 (1978):281312.Google Scholar
March, J. G.Bounded Rationality, Ambiguity, and the Engineering of Choice.” Bell Journal of Economics 10 (1978):587608.Google Scholar
McLaren, K. and Cooper, R.Intertemporal Duality: Application to the Theory of the Firm.” Econometrica 48 (1980):17551762.Google Scholar
Merton, R. C.Optimal Consumption and Portfolio Rules in a Continuous Time Model.” Journal of Economic Theory 3 (1971):373413.Google Scholar
Morzuch, B. J., Weaver, R. D., and Helmberger, P. G.Wheat Acreage Supply Response Under Changing Farm Programs.” Amer. J. Agri. Econ. 62 (1980):2729.Google Scholar
Nerlove, M.Lags in Economic Behavior.” Econometrica 40 (1972):252271.Google Scholar
Noel, J. E., Gardner, B. D. and Moore, C. V.Optimal Regional Conjunctive Water Management.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 62 (1980):489498.Google Scholar
Oberhofer, W. and Kmenta, J.A General Procedure for Obtaining Maximum Likelihood Estimates in Generalized Regression Models.Econometrica 42 (1974):579590.Google Scholar
Phan-Dinh-Tuan. “On the Fitting of Multivariate Processes of the Autoregressive-Moving Average Type,” Biometrica 65 (1978):99107.Google Scholar
Pope, R.The Expected Utility Hypothesis and Demand-Supply Restrictions,” Amer. J. Agri. Econ. 60 (1978):619627.Google Scholar
Posner, M. I. Cognition: An Introduction. Glenview, IL: Scott Foresman, 1973.Google Scholar
Raiffa, H. Decision Analysis. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1968.Google Scholar
Rao, C. R.Estimation of Heteroscedastic Variances in Linear Models.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 65 (1970):161172.Google Scholar
Rao, C. R.Estimation of Variance and Covariance Components in Linear Models.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 67 (1972):112115.Google Scholar
Sage, A. P.Behavioral and Organizational Consideration in the Design of Information Systems and Processes for Planning and Decision Support.” IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics SMC-11 (1981):640678.Google Scholar
Sargent, T. and Sims, C.Business Cycle Modelling Without Pretending to Have Too Much A Priori Economic Theory,” in New Methods in Business Cycle Research: Proceedings from a Conference, Fed. Res. Bank of Mpls., October 1977.Google Scholar
Simon, H. A.A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 69 (1955):99118.Google Scholar
Simon, H. A.Rational Choice and the Structure of the Environment.” Psychological Review 63 (1956):129138.Google Scholar
Simon, H. A. Administrative Behavior, New York, MacMillan, 1957.Google Scholar
Simon, H. A.Rationality as Process and as Product of Thought.” American Economic Review 68 (1978):116.Google Scholar
Stefanou, S. E.Information in Dynamic Agricultural Production Processes.” Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology Staff Paper No. 73, Pennsylvania State University, July, 1984.Google Scholar
Tversky, A. and Kahneman, D.Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.” Science 185 (1974):11241131.Google Scholar
Wallis, K.Multiple Time Series Analysis and the Final Form of Econometric Models,” Econometrica 45 (1977):14811497.Google Scholar
Weaver, R. D.The Theory and Measurement of Provisional Agricultural Production Decisions.” , University of Wisconsin, 1977.Google Scholar
Weaver, R. D.Measurement of Allocative Biases of Production Control Policies.” Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics 10 (1978):8791.Google Scholar
Weaver, R. D.Agricultural Price Expectations: An Erroneous but Better Approach to Measurement.” Paper presented at AAEA annual meeting, Clemson, SC, 26-29 July 1981. Staff Paper #43, The Pennsylvania State University, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, University Park, PA.Google Scholar
Weaver, R. D.Specification and Estimation of Consistent Sets of Choice Functions,” in New Directions in Econometric Modelling and Forecasting in U.S. Agriculture, ed. Rausser, Gordon C., Chap. 6. New York: North-Holland Publishing Co., 1982.Google Scholar
Weaver, R. D.Multiple Input, Multiple Output Production Choices and Technology in the U.S. Wheat Region,Amer. J. Agr. Econ. February (1983):4556.Google Scholar
Weaver, R. D. and Banerjee, A.Cash Price Variation in the Live Beef Cattle Market: The Causal Role of Futures Trade.Journal of Futures Markets 2 (1982):367390.Google Scholar
Zellner, A.An Efficient Method of Estimating Seemingly Unrelated Regressions and Tests of Aggregation Bias.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 57 (1962):348368.Google Scholar
Zellner, A. and Palm, F.Time Series Analysis and Simultaneous Equation Econometric Models.” Journal of Econometrics 2 (1974):1754.Google Scholar