The growth of output is continuing in the first half of the year at a moderate and steady pace. The preliminary estimate for gross domestic product in the first quarter shows an increase of 0.7 per cent, which is 2.6 per cent on a year earlier (see Chart 1). If oil and gas are excluded the increase is just 2.0 per cent. This rate of growth is not quite in line with the long-term trend, suggesting that little if any of the slack created by the recession has been taken up. The CBI survey of manufacturing and some labour market indicators however would seem to be consistent with a rather more rapid recovery and it is possible that the recent figures for GDP will eventually be revised up.