^{page 61 note (1)} The figures in the tables are not temperature-corrected unless this is specifically indicated.

^{page 62 note (1)} We have also excluded colliery and refinery consumption from final use.

^{page 62 note (2)} This is true on either of the assumptions set out in the Foreword but would not apply if the rate of growth of GDP were no higher than in the past (see Appendix II, table 32)

^{page 62 note (3)} The tendency to underpredict (which has been common to most energy forecasts) was, however, less marked than in 1960, when it was only with a GDP growth rate of 4 per cent that input in 1970 was expected to be significantly greater than 300 million tons (coal equivalent). Consumption was, moreover, slightly inflated by large quantities of low-grade coal (untreated slacks and smalls as well as opencast), sold in order to overcome shortages caused by the unofficial strike in the autumn of 1970. The 1971 consumption, of 325 million tons coal equivalent, was very near to the forecast if extended from 1970 to 1971.

^{page 63 note (1)} The ‘energy coefficient’—that is, the per cent growth of energy consumption (temperature-corrected) divided by the per cent growth of GDP (measured by output)—is an extremely unreliable tool for forecasting. In the five-year period ending 1970 it was 0.97, in 1960-65 0.67, in 1955-60 0.52, and in 1950-55 0.80. But these five-yearly averages conceal very erratic and large movements between about 0.1 (1967) and 2.0 (1970). There does not seem to be any regular correlation between GDP growth and growth in the demand for energy; regression analysis did not yield any useful results whether the extremes (such as 1958) were excluded or not, and on the new heat supplied basis there does not appear to be any relationship at all. In 1965-70 the coefficients were:

The coefficient for 1970 was the highest in postwar years (except for the abnormal figures, such as 1958) and that for 1969 was also among the highest recorded, but in 1971 the coefficient was negative: while GDP rose by 2 per cent, energy consumption actually fell by about 1 per cent.

^{page 63 note (2)} Saving, e.g. less energy use per unit of output, could come from the more efficient use of the same fuel or from a switch to a fuel which was used more efficiently in the application in question.

^{page 63 note (3)} The comparison is, however, based on the aggregates of the output of the industrial groups weighted according to their net output; weighting based on their energy use might yield different results.

^{page 64 note (1)} Since actual information concerning the number of households is available only for the years of population censuses, the number of marriages was taken as a proxy for household formation.

^{page 66 note (1)} Part of the primary fuel requirement is not for direct consumption by the final user of energy but for intermediate purposes such as the generation of electricity.

^{page 68 note (1)} The gigantic work of converting gas appliances to natural gas will take time; so far just over half of the nationwide conversion scheme has been finished.

^{page 68 note (2)} The 1975 flow is based on the southern part of the North Sea; for 1980 its full operation is assumed as well as some addition from the ‘associated’ gas of the Scottish oilfields in the North Sea. Neither the gas found in foreign (Norwegian etc.) waters nor any possible further sources have been taken into account.

^{page 69 note (1)} This forecast would require the commissioning of new nuclear stations of an aggregate capacity of about 5 1/2 thousand MW between 1975 and 1980.

^{page 69 note (2)} The amount of natural gas used for non-energy purposes has been included in the previous natural gas estimates.

^{page 70 note (1)} An official estimate, however, suggests as much as 25 million tons for 1975-and 75 million tons for 1980 (House of Lords Hansard, 7 June 1972, col. 388).

^{page 70 note (2)} Research on a major scale to develop new applications for coal appears to be a strong candidate for joint effort after entry into the European Coal and Steel Community.

^{page 70 note (3)} Based on an average c.i.f. price of crude petroleum and process oils of £8.87 per ton (Digest of UK Energy Statistics, 1972). For various reasons, for example because most of the oil imported is produced by companies which are at least partly British-owned, this is not, however, an accurate indicator of the potential net gain to the balance of payments.

^{page 70 note (4)} Cmnd 3438, November 1967.

^{page 71 note (1)} See, for example, Richard Bailey, ‘Energy policy—the national dilemma’. National Westminster Bank Quarterly Review, May 1972; and Colin Robinson, ‘What kind of fuel policy for Britain?’, Journal of the Institute of Fuel, July 1972.

^{page 72 note (1)} DTI, Digest of UK Energy Statistics, 1972, page 2.

^{page 72 note (2)} It is said, for example, that the railways replaced 10-12 tons of coal used in traction by 1 ton of oil.