Hostname: page-component-848d4c4894-xfwgj Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-06-30T02:43:32.421Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Comparative Properties of Models of the UK Economy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

K.B. Church ,
P.R. Mitchell ,
P.N. Smith  and
K.F. Wallis
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

This article analyses the properties of five major macroeconometric models of the UK economy in the light of the current debate over the setting of monetary and fiscal policy instruments. The broad objectives of current policy—sound public finances and low inflation—are reflected in a common operating environment for the models, with feedback rules for income tax and interest rates. Five standard simulation experiments demonstrate the consequences of these policy choices. The models disagree on several implications of this new policy framework, a critical parameter being the speed with which financial imbalances are rectified and inflation targets are met.

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 153 , August 1995 , pp. 59 - 72
Copyright
Copyright © 1995 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

∗

This article continues the series of surveys published in the National Institute Economic Review by the ESRC Macroeconomic Modelling Bureau at the University of Warwick. Editorial responsibility is taken by the authors, not by the Editorial Board of the Review.

References

Bray, J., Hall, S., Kuleshov, A., Nixon, J. and Westaway, P.F. (1995), ‘The interfaces between policy makers, markets and modellers in the design of economic policy: an intermodel comparison’, Economic Journal, 105, pp.989–1000.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Church, K.B., Mitchell, P.R., Turner, D.S., Wallis, K.F. and Whitley, J.D. (1991), ‘Comparative properties of models of the UK economy’, National Institute Economic Review, no.137, pp.59–74.10.1177/002795019113700106CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Church, K.B., Mitchell, P.R., Smith, P.N. and Wallis, K.F. (1993), ‘Comparative properties of models of the UK economy’, National Institute Economic Review, no.145, pp.87–107.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clements, M.P., Meen, G.P. and Nana, G. (1991), ‘Some unconventional results from the OEF model’. Paper presented at the ESRC Macroeconomic Modelling Seminar, University of Warwick, July 1991.Google Scholar
Fisher, P.G., Turner, D.S. and Wallis, K.F. (1992), ‘Forward unit root exchange-rate dynamics and the properties of large-scale macroeconometric models’. In Hargreaves, C.P. (ed.), Macroeconomic Modelling of the Long Run, pp.207–228, Edward Elgar, Aldershot.Google Scholar
Fisher, P.G., Tanna, S.K., Turner, D.S., Wallis, K.F. and Whitley, J.D. (1990), ‘Econometric evaluation of the exchange rate in models of the UK economy’, Economic Journal, 100, pp.1230–1244.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hughes Hallett, A.J. (1989), ‘Econometrics and the theory of economic policy: the Tinbergen-Theil contribution 40 years on’, Oxford Economic Papers, 41, pp.189–214.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Phillips, A.W. (1954), ‘Stabilisation policy in a closed economy’, Economic Journal, 64, pp.290–323. (Reprinted in K.F. Wallis (ed.), Macroeconometric Modelling, International Library of Critical Writings in Econometrics 2, Edward Elgar, Aldershot, 1994.)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smith, P.N. and Wallis, K.F. (1995), ‘Policy simulations and long-run sustainability in forward-looking macroeconometric models’. In Schoonbeek, L., Sterken, E. and Kuipers, S.K. (eds), Methods and Applications of Economic Dynamics, pp.203–221, North- Holland, Amsterdam.Google Scholar
Weale, M.R. (1994), ‘Fiscal policy and the national debt’, National Institute Economic Review, no.147, pp.50–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Westaway, P.F. (1995), ‘The role of macroeconomic models in the policy design process’, National Institute Economic Review, no.151, pp.53–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar