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Seasonal Patterns in the British Economy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

Extract

Applied macroeconomists commonly regard the seasonal variations of the economy as a hindrance rather than a help to the understanding of behaviour. Thus both in commenting informally on economic developments and in the more formal tasks of modelbuilding and forecasting seasonally-adjusted data are almost invariably used in preference to raw data when both are published. The nature of the patterns displayed by seasonal variation is very little discussed. One purpose of this note is simply to describe seasonal variation as it is estimated in some of the official data series, providing some tables which may be useful for general reference. But the aim is not just descriptive. It will be argued that seasonal variations may throw useful light on some controversial issues in macroeconomics.

Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © 1986 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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References

(1) When seasonal patterns were first being estimated economists did show considerable interest in them. An excellent example is C. Saunders, Seasonal Variations in Employment, Longmans 1936.

(1) See especially K. F. Wallis, ‘Seasonal adjustment and relations between variables’, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1974. Also relevant is J. J. Thomas and K. F. Wallis, ‘Seasonal variation in regression analysis’, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 1971.

(2) Tables of seasonal adjustment factors calculated over a longer period are available on request.

(1) Quarterly employment figures are based on sample surveys and are not as reliable as annual figures. Estimates are described in Department of Employment Gazette, September 1975.